Prof G Markets
00:26:38 · Anthony Scaramucci, Ed Elson
[00:26:38] S6: Well, I mean, for thirty years, I... Yale Hirsch and now his son, Jay Hirsch, are the authors of The Stock Trader Almanac. Have you ever seen it? [00:26:48] S8: No. I haven't. [00:26:48] S6: Okay. I'm gonna send you a copy for Christmas because I get them delivered to me, and I like giving them out to my friends. And in the almanac, it talks about the seasonality, like the Farmer's Almanac. It talks about the seasonality of stocks, and it talks about different issues that happen in stocks, but it also talks about four year presidential election cycles. And they go all the way back to 1896. And it turns out that when you have a mixed cycle, when you have the Congress turn to the Democrats and the Republicans still keep the presidency, people actually get bullish. And the main reason they get bullish is there's almost complete gridlock in Washington and nothing gets done. And this happened during the Clinton era. They eventually shut down the government, but then they reached a compromise. And some of that compromise was reform based that led to some budgetary surplus in the year 2000, as I write about in the book, All the Wrong Moves. And let me tell you something, Ed, that mixed government helped the country. So if you go back to 1896, anytime you get in a situation like this, it's been better for the stock and bond market.
00:27:57 · Ed Elson, Anthony Scaramucci
[00:27:57] S8: Yeah. Just here's a quote from Deutsche Bank's head of FX research. Quote, the combination of a large Democratic majority in congress and president Trump's statement that he is willing to work with the opposition should act as a break on extreme policy outcomes and bring down risk premia. And it does seem like, you know, one of the big stories in in the second half of the year in markets has been what we've seen on on bond yields and on treasuries, this just explosion in yields. [00:28:27] S6: I think there's one missing piece to this, because again, this is a markets commentary show in addition to politics, but I think the missing piece is the data center piece. And so the data centers are very unpopular. Sherrod Brown went after Houston or Houston on the data center issue as did others. And I think the AI boom was supposed to be the GOP's economic story, but it ended up on the ballot as somebody's utility bill. And I think it's important for people to understand that, that they felt holy shit, the data center is here in my neighborhood. It's not environmental. It's drawing too much power. And because of the demand supply mix for power, my prices are going way up, and people weren't happy about that.
00:29:15 · Ed Elson
[00:29:15] S8: How much of a theme will that be going forward? Because I think a lot of people were kind of surprised by how how much of a role it played. Just looking at the exit polls, 23 of voters said that AI and data centers were crucial to their vote. And then just to put a number on what I was saying before, there were 33 ballot measures that would restrict data centers or or or that did restrict data centers, only one pro data center measure one across the country. And so it does seem as though AI and data centers started out as more of a tech story, then it quickly became a a very important market story. It became this incredible trade. People trading literally trillions of dollars on this thing. Now it's entered the public consciousness. Now it's in the realm of politics, and that might change things quite precipitously for both the technologists and for the investors. Is this here to stay? Is this sort of a permanent feature of American politics?
00:30:18 · Anthony Scaramucci, Ed Elson
[00:30:18] S6: I think so. And I think so. And let me tell you the exit polling, it was high enough on the list and it's fairly universal. Younger people don't like it. I think you know, it got beaten almost everywhere, you know, anywhere where there was a regulating message and we gotta figure this out message, that candidate generally did well, You know, go to Ohio for a second, okay? The voters rejected the AI build out almost everywhere it was on the ballot. There were 14 municipalities that passed bans and or restrictions on data centers in the state of Ohio. You know? Now I could argue, man, that could be economically stupid, but this reminds me of the WTO issue. You you and I talked about this. We let China into the World Trade Organization, and the working class family says, don't do that, it's gonna really hurt us. And Wall Street's pooh poohing them. There's symmetry here. The working class family is saying, don't do this, it's gonna kill our jobs. And whoever's our white collar family member that's administrative or in an early stage consultancy is gonna get knocked out of the job. Don't do this. That's the message in the polling. Ad[00:31:49] S8: We'll be right back. And for even more Markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com.
00:31:49 · Ed Elson, S7
Ad[00:31:49] S8: We'll be right back. And for even more Markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com. Ad[00:32:05] S7: Support for the show comes from Scribe. The most valuable workflows are often the hardest to document because when they span people, systems, and judgment calls, they can stay undocumented, leaving teams guessing and holding AI back. That's exactly the problem Scribe was built to solve. Scribe is a specialized intelligence platform trusted by 95% of the Fortune five hundred. Scribe captures workflows as work happens and automatically generates step by step guides, so no one has to sit down and write documentation from scratch. Your team reviews each guide and sharing takes seconds. Privacy is built in too. Scribe can automatically redact sensitive data like names and emails. Admins pick the apps, and anything outside them is never captured. Once a guide is published, anyone can launch real time on screen guidance showing exactly where to click. Plus, you can use the workflow Scribe captures to give your AI real context. Most AI was trained on the Internet, not your company. Those captured workflows can change that, giving your AI agents a foundation in how your team actually works. Learn more at scribe.how/markets and mention our show for your first month of Scribe capture free on select plans. That's spelled scribe.how/markets. Scribe.how/markets.
00:33:18 · S1, S2, S3, S4, S5
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