The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
00:15:56 · Harry Stebbings, Rory O'Driscoll
[00:15:56] S0: But I think this is where his prime messaging has come back to bite him on the ass. Because to Jason's point previously in episodes where he's so dogmatic about what it's gonna do to jobs and employment, Now when things do come out, it's tied to him, sometimes unfairly, just because he's had that stance because of his labeling before. [00:16:13] S1: Yes. And to to Jason's point, we're doing a spot on. My god. Is this unpopular in the rest of the world? I mean, because, yeah, it turns out if you... I mean, you know, we're building a technology. It's going to definitely cause 20 to 30% white collar unemployment. And my VP of Safety, whom I haven't fired, has said on Twitter, there's a 10% chance it blows up the world. I wonder why we're not popular. Well, let me give you a few quick clues.
00:16:38 · Jason Lemkin
[00:16:38] S2: Can I just say what I thought the best thing I read on all of it was on Twitter anywhere? It was Jay Kreps, who was the founder of Confluent, acquired by IBM for, I don't know, 12,000,000,000, just stepped down. This is the best thing I thought was written on all of it. Said a lot of people have fake fake and stupid takes. It's a lot of marketing said here's here's the captain obvious point. Most positive use cases for AI have a corresponding dark version. If you're superhuman at coding, you're superhuman at hacking. If you're superhuman at structural engineering, you're likely superhuman at finding structural flaws to knock buildings down. If you're even superhuman at designing drugs, you're superhuman at designing novel undetectable poisons. If you cure viruses, you can create them. Some of these are not that bad. They're manageable. Others are scary. It is a fact. Like, if you don't get guardrails right, and there are no guardrails in open weights models for all intents and purposes, dark Dark versions can be created... Your AI will be just as good, all things legal, with the dark version as the light version. It's a fact. We need to solve these issues, but it is a fact. And it is not even... There's so many opinions and anthropomorphizing and temper centers, but the dark versions will escape into hugging face.
00:17:42 · Rory O'Driscoll, Harry Stebbings
[00:17:42] S1: I do agree with what you said, Jason. Absolutely right. When people invented books, when Gutenberg invented printed books, the Catholic church were pissed because they really liked to have a control in all knowledge, and they just didn't like information dissemination. Ditto the internet. There's a reason every totalitarian regime hates it. I think it's great framing. Every technology has a positive side and a negative side. We're going to do what we do every time. We're going to roll out the positive and find a way to manage the negatives. But in the interim, we're not gonna sell chips to China, which of course produce a Jensen response like you've never... The usual Jensen response. So on these implementation side, not realistic. [00:18:20] S0: Do we see ripple effects in... Across the infrastructure layer, in publics, in privates?
00:18:20 · Harry Stebbings, Rory O'Driscoll
[00:18:20] S0: Do we see ripple effects in... Across the infrastructure layer, in publics, in privates? [00:18:27] S1: There was a one day minor hit on kinda the semi stocks on that first day. Separately, pleasingly, CrowdStrike and all the cyber stocks jumped 10%. So it's actually interesting. I looked at Monday, and we're recording this on Tuesday. It'll appear on Thursday, which is a whole lifetime away in the world we live now. But the instant response was slight markdown on semis and the AI CapEx, but not a lot. So no discern... I mean, it's maybe... Which implied some level of slowdown. Significant markup on the cyber stocks because it looks like that's where the actual reality of the problem exists. And overall, I always look at World Cloud, which is the software index, versus SOX, which is a semiconductor index. And it was a great day for World Cloud relative to SOX. Software up, semi slightly down, but not big. I mean, loved... Saw a tweet. Market moves point 1% on news of 10% probability of extinction. In other words, capitalism took on board the risk and said, it'll be fine.
00:19:28 · Jason Lemkin, Rory O'Driscoll
[00:19:28] S2: I mean, this this may be like a much faster version of the twenties. There's no regulation. Everyone just wants to get rich as f in the twenties. Right? And what our version of 1929 will be for AI? You know, we don't know yet, but everyone just wants to get rich. $2,000,000,000 is just a start around adventure today. I was literally thinking that today when I saw Shield raise at 20 or 30,000,000,000 and they had a little chart. I'm like, wow, 2,000,000,000 is a start around now in today's world. It's just so much money and AI is so much money that it's just too easy to take advantage of the dark version if that's how you make money. It's too easy for you to be... Because every LLM has a dark version, it's too easy to cut that corner if that's how you can get raise at 1,000,000,000 after demo day. It's too easy. [00:20:08] S1: I don't think that's actually what I have. I actually think a different version of the same thing is this. Everyone's saying, oh my god, this is evil and bad and could be dangerous. And as it were, they're purging their conscience by worrying. But, Jason, you're exactly right. No one's saying I'm gonna push away from the table. And I don't think the people running some of these companies, especially on Tropic and Obey, oddly enough... I mean, you gotta defend them a They're not profit maximizers. If they were profit maximizers, they would own more than 2% in the case of Dario and 0% in the case of Sam.
00:20:08 · Rory O'Driscoll, Jason Lemkin
[00:20:08] S1: I don't think that's actually what I have. I actually think a different version of the same thing is this. Everyone's saying, oh my god, this is evil and bad and could be dangerous. And as it were, they're purging their conscience by worrying. But, Jason, you're exactly right. No one's saying I'm gonna push away from the table. And I don't think the people running some of these companies, especially on Tropic and Obey, oddly enough... I mean, you gotta defend them a They're not profit maximizers. If they were profit maximizers, they would own more than 2% in the case of Dario and 0% in the case of Sam. [00:20:36] S2: It's the it's the other folks that we should be worried about, not the three of them. We actually have half decent stewards at the top. Sam, Dario and Elon are about as good as... They may be better in theory, but in practice we can't get three better stewards. They have the right reasons to do what they're doing. The real problem is that ten or fifteen percent of founders are sociopaths. They genuinely are. In fact, especially the successful ones it lets you drive will something out of nothing into existence the ability to manipulate people the ability to have that look and do it that's where the bad people using AI come from the sociopaths you really don't think ten percent of the founders you've ever invested in are sociopaths? Of course they are.