01:14:36 · Tae Kim, Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[01:14:36] S3: Yeah. So so I think they [01:14:37] S1: At see a time the lot of at at, you know, at the time, everyone was like, wow, I wonder how Demis feels feels about this. Of course, Demis is an angel in Anthropic and and obviously, you know, thinks they're a great company and they have a good relationship. But at the time, it was like, wow, what like, they have this new model incoming. They have this massive compute advantage. They have this massive distribution advantage. They have massive data advantage. Like, they have every single advantage. They had this huge head start. [01:15:09] S0: And bend to the transformer. [01:15:09] S1: Vend it in everywhere on all these platforms from Google Workspace which is like a massively, you know, underrated distribution point to the Google, you know, docs and and sheets and basically everywhere. Like, single possible advantage in an incredibly talented team and exponential demand for tokens. And it was still, you know, somewhat surprising to see them, you know, invest invest that much in in a competitive lab. [01:15:41] S3: And they're benefiting, you know, with Google Cloud at getting that business. But I think long term strategically, I think Google has to be very careful. And I think Microsoft's experience this with OpenAI is once the value accrues to Anthropic and OpenAI, they're gonna be the power players, you know, four or five years from now and be able to push people around. I mean, we saw that when Yahoo literally used Google as their search engine. Right? Google was nobody. [01:16:09] S0: Oh, yeah.
01:16:09 · John Coogan, Tae Kim, Jordi Hays
[01:16:09] S0: Oh, yeah. [01:16:09] S3: And Yahoo put it on their on their homepage and powered their search engine, and then Google became the power player in a few years. Same thing with Netscape and Yahoo. I mean, is like history repeating itself. Netscape was everyone used Netscape. I don't know if you guys were around then, but Netscape was the browser. Right? And the reason Yahoo became powerful is because what you you clicked on that little thing on the right on the homepage and it drove people to Yahoo, the portal. Yeah. Then Google, you know, took off because they started using Google the Google search engine inside yahoo.com. Yeah. So I I think all these companies have to be be careful. Like, if you if you help OpenAI and Anthropic become super powerful and they have the best models and, you know, this thing is all a flywheel. Right? Mhmm. The more people that use it the more people that use Cloud Code, you know, Anthropy's gonna get smarter and make the better version of Cloud Code. Same thing with ChatGDP. And if you let Gemini kind of, like, lose the market right now [01:17:08] S0: Yeah. [01:17:08] S3: Like, and Anthropy gets all the business and all the revenue, like Google starts losing power in the whole tech ecosystem. [01:17:16] S1: Yeah. It's almost like the whole industry is on a merry-go-round, but they're you know, it's like a Spider Man meme with like, you know, guns. Everyone's kinda just like going around. Yeah. Very, very What are your
01:17:16 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Tae Kim, Brian Chesky, Dylan Field
[01:17:16] S1: Yeah. It's almost like the whole industry is on a merry-go-round, but they're you know, it's like a Spider Man meme with like, you know, guns. Everyone's kinda just like going around. Yeah. Very, very What are your [01:17:28] S0: expectations for the SpaceX IPO? What does that do to the market? They sort of jump straight into the mag seven in terms of valuation. Are they gonna suck up liquidity? [01:17:36] S3: Call. It's really it's really tough to tell without that that s one. Yeah. We'll see it first and, you know, all we have is like these spot leaks and [01:17:44] S0: Yeah. [01:17:44] S3: You know, Darling can now with the, you know, selling the the the AI compute classes Mhmm. To Anthropic. I mean, the valuation is extremely extremely high. Even even the d one capital guy who who's up, you know [01:18:02] S0: Dan Sunheim. [01:18:02] S8: On Facebook. [01:18:03] S3: Yeah. He he was interviewed on on on Oshana's. [01:18:06] S0: He's Yeah. [01:18:07] S3: Show. You could tell if you just read his body language, he's like, wow. This is a really high multiple. I mean, go back and listen to it. Even he even though he's gonna benefit from it, like, he's like, wow. This is really high. [01:18:19] S6: Yeah. So [01:18:20] S0: I mean, a lot of SpaceX investors were happy with, you know, investing that 60,000,000,000 when it was doing 10,000,000,000 revenue and had great margins, and it's a completely different business. Both have evaluations side.
01:18:20 · John Coogan, Tae Kim
[01:18:20] S0: I mean, a lot of SpaceX investors were happy with, you know, investing that 60,000,000,000 when it was doing 10,000,000,000 revenue and had great margins, and it's a completely different business. Both have evaluations side. [01:18:33] S3: To them. They saw stuff that they'll mean, like, you know, the launch costs going down and it's and Starlink coming out of nowhere and adding billions of, you know, unbelievable telecom business total Yeah. Custom market. It's great. But, like, 1.5, 1,750,000,000,000 off those Starlink [01:18:50] S0: revenue numbers. Like Hey. What what what was this? From Gavin Baker. He was saying, like, Elon has just always delivered for shareholders, and that means that he can marshal unlimited capital at all times. And And it just [01:19:03] S3: continues. You know, I'm just hesitant. Like, you know, at those extreme valuations, that's less upside for a retail investor. [01:19:10] S0: Oh, sure. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Hard to imagine, like, the the the test loss scenario. [01:19:15] S3: Yeah. The passive indexes, if they go in at that price, that valuation, like, on the next downturn, it's just I just I just wish Anthropic went out first. [01:19:26] S0: Sure. [01:19:26] S3: Right? Because the numbers are dramatically real. I mean, OpenAI probably is accelerating now with Codex too. [01:19:32] S0: Yeah. Yeah. [01:19:33] S3: And, you you know, that that will help things a lot better than, you know, [01:19:37] S0: you know Than SpaceX. Oh, sure. Sure.
01:19:37 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Tae Kim, Immad Akhund
[01:19:37] S0: you know Than SpaceX. Oh, sure. Sure. [01:19:39] S1: Sure. Yeah. Interesting thing right now looking at the valuations of the Mag seven and then you add SpaceX in there and then you add, you Anthropic and OpenAI and SpaceX will look potentially make Anthropic and OpenAI look cheap on just like a But multiple then it still looks very expensive versus let's say like a meta, right? Yeah. Sitting at 1 and a half trillion Yeah. With with one of the best businesses of all time. Yeah. I did I did wanna ask you about Meta, your kind of updated mental model. They obviously had a big painful round of of layoffs today to be able to afford their inference bill. I'm I'm joking there but it does seem like, you know, they're effectively whatever they're saving on on comp, they're just sort of reinvesting into AI. AI, both CapEx, but also their their inference bills. How are you [01:20:38] S3: I I you asked asked me the same question, you know, six, seven weeks ago and, you know, I think reported an unbelievable quarter. I mean, if they're growing at 33%, like, crazy amounts of profits, like, there's market set skepticism that they could do well in AI models, but, you know, there's also the plan b. Like, you could say the same thing about what happened with Elon and x AI. Like, they were able to there's so much demand in this megatrend hypercycle [01:21:06] S5: Mhmm.
01:21:06 · Immad Akhund, Tae Kim, Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[01:21:06] S5: Mhmm. [01:21:06] S3: That even if they falter a bit, they could sell compute capacity to to the highest bidder that's out there. So I I wouldn't count Meta out. I actually think, like I said, their core advertising advertising business is more durable than the Google search engine right now, which if you go, you know, it's filled with ads everywhere, it's not it's not a great experience. And a lot of that a lot of that traffic is gonna shift over to AI chatbot. So I if you actually look at the numbers, Meta is is their core business is very durable, has competitive advantage. It's growing still growing like a weed. I I I just wouldn't count them out. [01:21:46] S1: Yeah. Yeah. Basically, as soon as they either have an AI breakthrough or they pull back on AI, the stock has to rerate. Right? [01:21:58] S3: Yes. Yes. I mean, that's the same thing happened with with with the the metaverse stuff. Yeah. As if they start cutting back spending, you rerate rerate higher because all all those losses don't don't hit the income statement. [01:22:10] S0: They look tiny now. [01:22:11] S1: Yeah. It'd be so it'd be so wild to think about what Meta's stock would be doing right now if the metaverse debacle had never happened. Mhmm. Because the metaverse was like this high conviction bet on a category that was just way too early and yet AI doesn't I think you're right. And yet they feel like late on AI. I think Mark felt late or at least clearly felt behind enough to to to sort of, you know, 10 x the seriousness. So