How I Invest with David Weisburd
00:29:09 · David Weisburd
[00:29:09] S1: If you run a business, you probably start your morning with way too many tabs open. You're checking revenue, ad performance, email, inventory, spreadsheets. And before you've made a single decision, you've already spent your morning just figuring out what happened yesterday. That's what I like about Perplexity Computer. Instead of jumping between every dashboard yourself, Perplexity Computer could connect to the tools you already use and build a command center for your business. It could pull together things like revenue, ad spend, margins, inventory, and email performance, then show you what changed, where you might be losing money, and what you should look at next. But what makes Perplexity Computer really interesting is that it could actually work on projects. You get help rewrite an email flow, build an ad campaign, or draft outbound outreach. And unlike most AI tools, you're not locked in into one model. Perplexity Computer orchestrates leading AI models behind the scenes and automatically chooses the right one for each step. For a limited time only, you could try Perplexity Computer for free. Head to pplx.ai/invest. That's pplx.ai/invest to try Perplexity Computer today. Most AI tools are still answering questions while Perplexity Computer is completing full projects. One thing that I've learned from talking to hundreds of investors, founders, and business leaders is that planning for the future isn't just about growing assets. It's also about protecting the people who matter most. Life comes with a lot of important milestones. Maybe you're buying a home, starting a family, planning for college, or simply thinking more intentionally about your financial future. As those responsibilities grow, it's worth making sure you protect those you love. Not sure what kind of life insurance you may need? Concerned about how much it may cost? Think life insurance is too complicated? Your local State Farm agent can help answer those questions. They can help you explore your options for life insurance and choose coverage that you can adjust as your family's needs change over time. Financial protection for your loved ones when it matters most. Learn more about life insurance at statefarm.com. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.
00:31:03 · David Weisburd
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00:32:20 · Matthew Harris
[00:32:20] S0: Doing so, the agendas have definitely shifted. OpenAI was more aggressive out of the gates in terms of being having audacity around funding. They raced ahead. Anthropic caught up both with the product and now more recently with their ability to go get capacity. I think Elon is the best of the three at this at that particular game, both of building data centers specifically, but also about sort of just, you know, world building in people's minds and attracting vast capital to vast projects. So of the three, I think on the data center game, I actually think the advantage sits with Elon. OpenAI versus Anthropic. They have a lot of business puts and takes right now. Think one of one one announcement here recently that I think was underreported on was OpenAI opening up model usage within codecs. So OpenAI wants to be a bunch of different things. They want to sell the most tokens and their most expensive models, but they also want to be the most popular, you know, coding tool. And they made a really strategic decision, which is to let people who are using Codex to code more efficiently use open source, open weight model tokens in addition to just open AI token. And that is a stark departure from the historical, you know, cursor sells to Elon and the models shut off access to their models to cursor. That's where we were quite recently. And now in a few weeks, we're in a place where at least OpenAI has said we want to win at the horizontal application layer, which means we have to go multi model architecturally. So I really like that move. I think it's genius, actually. And I think they're still going to sell a lot of OpenAI tokens into codex in the same way that ostensibly and actually Microsoft was open architecture with its OS. You could use WordPerfect. You could use Lotus one, two, three. You could use freelance graphics. But over time, the market share shifted to Microsoft Word, Excel and Power Point because they own the playground, they own the operating system. And that was just a massive advantage, even if they weren't overtly bundling them in a way that triggered the regulators and in a way that actually forced lock in. We'll see what Anthropic does, but these are the kind of chess moves that are happening right now that I think make this such a fascinating place to watch.
00:34:54 · Matthew Harris, David Weisburd
I mean, there's a rumor going around the valley right now that both companies are going to shut off API access to vertical apps. That's a paranoid rumor that I don't think makes any sense because the API businesses are their biggest businesses. So how would that work? [00:35:12] S1: What's the incentive? [00:35:13] S0: Well, the incentive would be you can only get the frontier models from applications they build. And so if you're Goldman Sachs and you're buying an AI, you know, application layer tool and you can go to a, you know, you can go to Hebia, but you know, they can't get anthropic tokens or you can use anthropic for finance and get, you know, those sweet, sweet anthropic tokens. That would be the logic. Again, I'm I'm skeptical. I think that's it. That would be a bad business decision. And OpenAI has just shown they're actually going the other direction, much more open architecture versus closed. But these are the kind of theoreticals that are getting mooted right now. And I think it's just a student of both business history and military history. It's like, you know, catnip. [00:36:02] S1: I didn't wanna disclose, my investment in Anthropic because I wanted to hear hear unfiltered unfiltered opinion, but let's assume that goes public at reported $2,000,000,000,000. I don't have any insider information on that. How do you think about the valuation and what will be the drivers on whether that's overvalued or undervalued?
00:36:02 · David Weisburd, Matthew Harris
[00:36:02] S1: I didn't wanna disclose, my investment in Anthropic because I wanted to hear hear unfiltered unfiltered opinion, but let's assume that goes public at reported $2,000,000,000,000. I don't have any insider information on that. How do you think about the valuation and what will be the drivers on whether that's overvalued or undervalued? [00:36:27] S0: I think the valuation based on the reported revenue numbers and revenue growth is actually reasonable. You know, these are unprecedented. [00:36:36] S1: Is that just because the sticker shock on 2,000,000,000,000 is just so great they had to price it like that? [00:36:41] S0: To be clear, there is sticker shock about 2,000,000,000,000. But I think if you look at the underlying business momentum, other than the sticker shock of that being in a kind of an unprecedented number, it's actually reasonable. Like if you took three zeros off of all the numbers, you would say, well, actually, that makes sense. If that growth rate can continue or anything like it can continue, they will grow into and through that valuation in a very reasonable period of time. So I don't think it's unreasonable at all. You know, we have a hard time as investors pricing companies that are in hyper growth because it's really hard to do any kind of forward. [00:37:19] S1: Goes back to what we were talking before. Correct. Seems overvalued.
00:37:19 · David Weisburd, Matthew Harris
[00:37:19] S1: Goes back to what we were talking before. Correct. Seems overvalued. [00:37:23] S0: It might see overvalued at a moment. But again, if hyper growth continues, it'll quickly seem undervalued. So I think we just you know, we just don't know. And so I don't think it's unreasonable. And I am sure there's demand. I think what will be interesting to see technically is how much of the cap table is in strong hands versus weak hands. And therefore, what the supply demand picture looks like when the lockups start to come unlocked. You know, SpaceX has done well so far. But I just don't know enough about the detail of the anthropic cap table to know how many, you know, venture firms and other investors who haven't produced a lot of liquidity in the last, you know, five years are really eager to produce some liquidity. [00:38:10] S1: Another set of incentives. And as a small shareholder, not not so small outcome, I I could see if you invested 50,000,000 or a 100,000,000, that number is very difficult to walk away from even if you think it's undervalued. [00:38:27] S0: Yeah. I think that... And you're the LP and you're sort of saying, alright. It's a lot of TVPI, but we haven't had distributions from this asset class. So let's get going with this, and this is how this works. You give us money back, and we give it back to you, but you need to give it back. So, again, that doesn't make me pessimistic. I just don't know the math around this week. It's more [00:38:46] S1: of a short term volatility.