Prof G Markets
01:11:33 · Josh Brown
[01:11:33] S4: Wall Street has become obsessed with this metric, time spent. So it's measuring the amount of hours that people spend watching Netflix versus everything else. And they're being compared to YouTube, which is now lapped Netflix. It's 2X the amount of time spent. Now, don't know that that's meaningful. Do people just put YouTube on a screen and walk away into the other room? Probably. It just auto plays. It just, like if somebody's watching Prof G Markets and that ends, then maybe my show comes on and then maybe someone else, and it just plays. Is that meaningful really to anyone? Well, unfortunately for Netflix, it's the thing that's being scrutinized more than anything else. Netflix is hugely profitable. They're earning like $3,000,000,000 a quarter. They're expanding internationally. They just shook up the programming people. They brought someone in who's pretty well respected. The quality of the movies is not great. The typical show that they've put out is not great. That could be fixed. It's not rocket science. Just, you know, the way that they're spending money has to this $20,000,000,000 annual film and TV budget, just do it better. Like they've done it before. The thing is it almost doesn't matter because Wall Street is fixating on, are they losing to YouTube? And they are. And I don't even know that they can do anything about that other than to lean in on the fact that it's premium content and because it's premium and the viewer actually chooses it rather than has it auto played, that there's some signal there about future subscription holding up and future cash flows as a result. I think they can do that. What's not gonna work is trying to be YouTube light and just throwing podcasts on the platform and video games. And I think they should do what Paramount's about to do, which is double on the quality of the programming and make the case to the street that these viewers or these users are really sticky. I think they put out East of Eden and I think it's the best thing they've made in five years.
01:13:42 · Scott Galloway, Josh Brown, Ed Elson
[01:13:42] S0: Fantastic. They can do [01:13:44] S4: it when they put their minds to it. I think they've gotten distracted. Paramount's gonna double down on HBO. You'll see premium quality stuff that you can actually raise the prices for because people can't live without it. You're not gonna do that with podcasts that somebody could just watch on YouTube. So I think they've gotten the memo. They brought this guy in from Disney. He's got an extensive history in the studio system. He's done big sports deals too. You you need to have must have programming that people get pissed off when everyone's talking about it and they didn't see it. That's the that's the roots of what Netflix did with house of cards in 2013, completely reinvented what the platform was. They can do it again. I think the good thing is they've now identified that that is the solution. The solution is, hey, we can do YouTube too. That's not gonna work. [01:14:35] S0: Although I would push back. I do think Netflix should acquire independent podcasts at any price, Josh. [01:14:41] S3: I'm sure you do. [01:14:42] S4: At any at any price. The best ones. [01:14:45] S0: Ed, bring us home. Wrap this wrap this dog's breakfast up, quoting Talia Shire. You lost all credibility right out of the gates there. Win. The amazing Talia Shire. [01:14:57] S4: Did you even I pitted a fool. Hold on. Did you even watch Rocky two ever in your life? [01:15:01] S0: I've seen all the Rocky films. [01:15:03] S4: Not you. I knew you're... I know you did. [01:15:06] S3: I mean, I get destroyed. No. I haven't. No. I haven't.
01:15:06 · Ed Elson, Scott Galloway, Josh Brown
[01:15:06] S3: I mean, I get destroyed. No. I haven't. No. I haven't. [01:15:09] S0: You haven't seen the Rocky films? [01:15:11] S4: No. I I Scott, are we gonna put up with this? [01:15:14] S0: Jesus Christ, man. [01:15:16] S3: Jesus Christ. Was I was I was praying this question would not be asked of me. Cause I fancy myself a movie buff, but it's pretty stop. It's it's a weak spot. [01:15:26] S4: Stop now. Movie buff. [01:15:29] S0: That hurts. [01:15:30] S3: But you still love me. That hurts. Right? [01:15:32] S4: Oh my god. I couldn't love you more. Just, you don't have to watch all 12 of them. You sort of get the gist, but the first four are canon. Yeah. They're canon. [01:15:43] S3: I know. I hate [01:15:44] S4: to it. You have to catch [01:15:45] S3: I'll do it this weekend, and then I'll give you a call and I can give you my thoughts. My final question, we had you on at the beginning of the year. There were a lot of concerns about the market, very similar to the concerns that we're talking about today. [01:16:00] S4: How'd I do? [01:16:01] S3: And we're up 12%, and you did very well. And you said that earnings growth would be extremely strong. You felt that there were... And believe there are a lot of tailwinds going into this market that outweighed the headwinds. So far, look at the numbers. That has been correct. [01:16:19] S0: Here's a freebie. [01:16:22] S4: When the S and P is up double digits through the midpoint of the year, you have like an 89% chance that the high of the year will take place in December. [01:16:34] S3: The- That is a historical- Well,
01:16:34 · Ed Elson, Josh Brown
[01:16:34] S3: The- That is a historical- Well, [01:16:38] S4: only have a hundred years of data. [01:16:41] S3: Right. [01:16:41] S4: So I won't call it science, but it's a lot of years of data. And it turns out almost all the time in bull markets, which we're in, the high of the year is either in December or January. [01:16:54] S3: Well, was gonna be my question, which is where does the S and P end at the end of the year? Sounds like you think higher. [01:17:00] S4: Look, I thought we would have a volatile October, which is also seasonally, like historically seasonal. And we did. And it was, you know, it was select. They didn't kill everything, but we had real corrections and we had semis down 29%. We had industrials down 30%, like some big name industrials down big, like the financials got killed this past month. The thing is we got through the Fed meeting. We knew they had to hike because they had to hike. Now you have bond yields backing off. Oil is not quite backing off, but it's not racing higher. Get another Fed meeting, fine, whatever. Get the stupid midterms out of the way. Come Thanksgiving, people are sitting around looking at their portfolios. They're up 15% and Anthropic price as well. Like that's the setup like, oh shit. The midterms were over. They did the stupid token rate hike. They priced the biggest IPOs in history, and I don't know. I'll buy something. I just like... I just feel like it resolves that way. So where where that won't happen is an exogenous shock that no one sees coming. I... Yeah. Sure.
01:17:00 · Josh Brown, Scott Galloway, Ed Elson
[01:17:00] S4: Look, I thought we would have a volatile October, which is also seasonally, like historically seasonal. And we did. And it was, you know, it was select. They didn't kill everything, but we had real corrections and we had semis down 29%. We had industrials down 30%, like some big name industrials down big, like the financials got killed this past month. The thing is we got through the Fed meeting. We knew they had to hike because they had to hike. Now you have bond yields backing off. Oil is not quite backing off, but it's not racing higher. Get another Fed meeting, fine, whatever. Get the stupid midterms out of the way. Come Thanksgiving, people are sitting around looking at their portfolios. They're up 15% and Anthropic price as well. Like that's the setup like, oh shit. The midterms were over. They did the stupid token rate hike. They priced the biggest IPOs in history, and I don't know. I'll buy something. I just like... I just feel like it resolves that way. So where where that won't happen is an exogenous shock that no one sees coming. I... Yeah. Sure. [01:18:12] S0: So, yeah, this is why Josh is managing 11,000,000,000, and I'm managing 23 millennials that are bitching about pet bereavement leads. By the way, you don't... You really don't know who Clubber Lang is. You really don't... Clubber Lang, that means nothing to you. Apollo Creed. Apollo Creed, that means nothing to you? [01:18:30] S3: I've seen Creed. Is that is that... I assume that's related. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I've seen Creed.
01:18:30 · Ed Elson, Josh Brown, Scott Galloway
[01:18:30] S3: I've seen Creed. Is that is that... I assume that's related. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I've seen Creed. [01:18:35] S4: That's his son. You see Right. The son had to get revenge. [01:18:39] S3: Well, next time, we'll do a movie podcast. [01:18:41] S0: I'm here to pick up my daughter. That's how I feel right now. Anyways, [01:18:44] S4: love you guys. Thank you for having me back. [01:18:46] S3: Love you, Josh. Josh Brown is the cofounder and CEO of Ritholtz, a New York City based investment advisory firm managing $9,500,000,000 in assets for individuals, corporate retirement plans, and foundations. Can also check out his podcast, the compound and friends, for more. Josh Brown, we always love having you. Thank you so much. Thanks, brother. [01:19:05] S4: Thank you, guys. [01:19:08] S3: This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Jorge Carty. Our research team is Dan Chelan, Kristen O'Donohue, and Mia Silverio. Jake McPherson is our social producer. Drew Burrows is our technical director, and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof Markets from Prof G Media. If you like what you heard, give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on the markets on Monday.