00:11:33 路 Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:11:33] S0: see that conclusion. What do you think is gonna be more annoyed about this week? The fact that SpaceX is gonna be valued meaningfully higher [00:11:42] S1: Yeah. [00:11:43] S0: Than Meta or this trailer? It's actually a tough one. I don't know. It's actually a tough one. [00:11:49] S1: I mean, I think the real one is the Fable five. Because, like, if if Meta was using a ton of anthropic models and the new model comes out and says you specifically can't use it in MSL, the most important initiative in the company. Like, that's like a pretty rough thing where you're like, oh, I've been working with this company to develop my models for my family of apps. [00:12:13] S0: And now I can't use they them do, you know, Meta is spending billions of dollars a year Yeah. With Anthropic. Yeah. They have been for a while. [00:12:22] S1: Oh, ARR, [00:12:23] S0: but yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Will spend billions of dollars this And the question is, like, if Anthropic does allow Meta to use their models for Meta's AI research, what does it say about what Anthropic thinks about Meta's potential in AI? [00:12:39] S1: They'll secretly love ads this whole time. No. I don't know. [00:12:43] S0: No. To me to me, it it would it would be them not not feeling like they had a The AGI. Ability to get to the frontier.
00:12:51 路 John Coogan
[00:12:51] S1: Totally. And then and and that's an ace that's up their sleeve at any time. They can always just take the guardrails off and be like, hey, more more more AI, more intelligence on demand for everyone. So I think the fallout of the medium term, Jeremy Strong's gonna go on this press tour for the Oscar and he's gonna have a bunch of like really emotional pithy sound bites and then also be like just viral because it's funny to see him doing this impression. He's very good at, like, drawing. He's already gone viral for his Mark Zuckerberg impression in the past. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the next version of a Bernie Sanders press release about AI highlight Dario, Sam, and Zuck instead of what has historically been the order, which is Sam, Dario and Demis. So it's always based on like perceived industry power and negativity around personal brand. So they have to have a scary quote and then they also have to have a lot of power in the industry. Zuck's power in the industry is rising. And also with this movie, like, there's more ways to to to take shots at him. Like, oh, look at what he did with the Facebook files. Remind yourself of that because a lot of people don't really remember the details. They're going to after they see this movie. Then you can then you can say, well, this guy's also building crazy data centers and look at how he handled this. If he handles the AI thing like that, it's gonna be bad. Right? So that so that's like a little bit of a risk in the medium term. Long term, I don't think the social reckoning is gonna matter all that much for Meta. People will complain about Meta's data centers.
00:14:13 路 Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:14:13] S0: Why did [00:14:14] S1: they not get [00:14:16] S0: Jeremy Strong like a wig? [00:14:18] S1: They did. Or they they because also he is remember playing an older [00:14:23] S0: when he [00:14:23] S1: had the Caesar haircut? [00:14:24] S0: Yeah. So it's [00:14:25] S1: So a different people will complain about all this stuff, but they'll do it on Meta's family of apps. I don't think there'll be churn. And certainly, advertisers won't pull out. It's impossible to pull out of Meta because it just drives it just drives up the r the ROAS, the the return on ad spend for smaller companies. And a bunch of small businesses will just jump in and say, oh, great. Like, you know, some big company pulled out and is boycotting Meta. That's great. Ridge Wallet's gonna jump in or somebody else is gonna jump in. [00:14:53] S0: Yeah. People have advertisers have tried to boycott.
00:14:55 路 John Coogan
[00:14:55] S1: Yeah. You can on Facebook. It's impossible. So the business is just too strong. And so and I also don't think Mark will be singled out by a regulatory hammer should it come down hard. Like if there's a data center ban, I don't think it's going to be uniquely focused on meta. Only Dario and Sam have like true scapegoat risk because they run pure play labs and have been so noisy about AI and they have the biggest revenues in the category. There might be data center regulation, but it won't unfairly target Meta. So anyway, that's my Social Reckoning take. Let's move on to Fable which launched yesterday. And the model seems like incredibly impressive. I I've been seeing these like vibe coded games that look really really good and for some of those I haven't seen those like like the vibe coded games hit really well on social media because you take a video of them and you show the example of what it built, you share the time Yeah. And people just sort of believe it. It could be embellished, but in general, these feel like pretty solid. Of course, like making a great game is a great mechanic and there just needs to be multiple levels and like a single demo of like a forest putting in is not quite there, but really, really useful. And I'm sure we'll see a bunch more examples of like games as memes, simulators and these things are going to get easier to build. That's really exciting. Of course, there's a bunch of debate on the timeline yesterday and it's bleeding into today around the latest model, Fable five. The first mythos class model that both seems remarkably good at long horizon tasks like software development and knowledge work, but rejects requests related to biology, cybersecurity and frontier LLM development. Interestingly, I haven't seen anyone share anyone share rejections around anything else. Like did did they remember to reject like build me a nuke? Like I haven't seen anyone try that and it'd be very funny if it was like, oh yeah, just we didn't get around to that or there are so many other things. But I think a lot of those other other like things that you should reject, queries that you should reject have been ironed out in previous iterations. Yeah. So going back, you know, the say a slur was a big one for a while or say something rude or
00:17:07 路 Jordi Hays
[00:17:07] S0: And it's a different political statement. Pausing pausing a chat, basically just like shutting down a conversation versus like switching you to a less performant model.
00:17:16 路 John Coogan
[00:17:16] S1: Yeah. And it creates this like screenshot that went viral pretty much continuously yesterday. And so this aligns with Anthropic's focus on safety. But as many people have pointed out, it's also just good business. You don't want competitors using your products to directly create competitors, and you also don't want financial liability or negative headlines from bad actors using your models to for nefarious purposes. Ben Thompson called it true alignment. The take safety seriously culture aligns with business value creation, which is very, very rare. Oftentimes the like be good or your culture limits what you can do and actually hurts your business, but it's something that you do in favor of brand like Apple would probably be, would probably be more profitable if they were using like diesel generators for all of their data all of centers. They went clean energy because they wanted to have an environmental brand. And over the long term, it's helped them. But in the short term, it's been rough. Of course, inexpensive. So Ben Thompson writes, What is so fascinating about Anthropic, however, is that while I'm sure some executives of the company are thinking this way, I also totally believe that the employee base broadly also happen to believe that they are doing the right thing. It's fascinating to observe. Me, the rational business analyst sees a hard nosed but understandable decision cut off would be competitors, anthropic employees and advocates. The true believers see a regrettable but understandable safety decision that ensures that responsible and thoughtful people themselves of course will be the ones guiding our AI AGI future. This is true alignment and it's an incredible accomplishment. Facebook has tussled with this a bunch and we already talked about that. But to be clear, the Fable five rejection threshold really does feel way too low from what people are saying. Tons of examples on the timeline of a biologist just saying hi to the model and getting kicked down to Opus. I saw you shared someone just said cyber with the devil horns, the purple devil horn emoji, and it's like we can't do it. We're not going further. Of course, like bringing down like a broad hammer, you can always dial it back over time. But every rejection is this implicit invitation to hop on the phone with an anthropic sales rep and get on the Mythos enterprise plan.