All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
01:14:40 · Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya
[01:14:40] S0: You know, little spritz? [01:14:41] S2: I think it's more of a democratic spritz. But when you look at some of the the early data, you know, and I don't know if Bret Baier was doing this just to kind of hedge his bets or not, but he did a clip which went viral on X where it just looked like it was gonna be a bloodbath for the Republicans, and they were gonna lose both sides, both the Senate and and the House. I think it's still set up to have the Republicans keep the Senate and the Democrats to have a narrow majority. And just going back to maybe where we started, the mandate from the Democrats then becomes obvious, which is how do you introduce FUD? And there's one way to do that, which is to start subpoenaing everybody and start to do disclosure discovery, release document after document after document, and let, you know, the the masses start to churn through this stuff going into '28. So number one, create FUD. And then number two is I think a economic slowdown benefits the Democrats going into the twenty eight election cycle, and so whatever they can do to kind of, like, influence power permitting and data centers, because as we talked about earlier, that's the levered bet. So to me, it almost doesn't matter what happens at the federal level except for the FUD part. I think we now should be paying a ton of attention to what's happening in these governorships and some of these some of these other races. [01:16:10] S0: Sacks, has your view changed?
01:16:10 · Jason Calacanis, David Sacks
[01:16:10] S0: Sacks, has your view changed? [01:16:12] S1: Look. I think that you can't trust any of these polls. First of all, a couple of these polling firms have come out and admitted that they are fake. I mean, we literally have a couple of [01:16:23] S0: Oh, yeah. There was a hoax, right?
01:16:24 · David Sacks
[01:16:24] S1: Fake polls. There was literally a hoax and and those fake polls were included in, you know, those averages. So some of the polls are outright fraudulent and then the rest of them are well known to have a bias. Patrick Ruffini did a study of the last three elections and found that three quarters of the polls all, you know, aired in favor of Democrats. So we see this as a recurring pattern. We saw this in 2024. You had Ann Selzer, who was supposedly the gold standard, say that Trump was gonna lose Iowa by, like, 10 or something like that, and it turned out to be total nonsense. So the pollsters have a history of bias, of fraud, or you could just say, for some reason, oversampling progressives in their polls. So I think that people should shut that out. I think that some of them are a tactic designed to depress and suppress turnout, and Republicans should just go out there and vote. The the economy is not a disaster. That is total fake news. We know what the growth rates are. It was two and a half percent in the last quarter, and it's tracking at 3.7% right now. Median household income is almost $90,000. It's at an all time high. Poverty is at an all time low. I think the percent of people below the poverty line is like 12%. It's the lowest it's ever been. It's not just a k shaped recovery. You're seeing real wage growth in real terms by the average household, which was not true during the Biden years. So I don't think people should get psyched out by this media operation to make people super depressed about what's going on.
01:18:00 · Jason Calacanis
[01:18:00] S0: Jay Cal, any views? Oh, well, I agree. The polling data has been, you know, a suspect for a long time now across many elections. Wedgewood did this, like, they're claiming performance art, but they were kinda serious. I I don't know who they're working for or or what the shenanigans are, but I do trust Polymarket. I think when you look at the Polymarket, pretty clear what's gonna happen here. I can tell
01:18:23 · David Sacks
[01:18:23] S1: Polymarket was wrong on Bolsonaro, although I think maybe he got robbed. It was wrong on Netanyahu. So the poly markets are just a reflection of public sentiment or public sentiment that's willing to place a bet Yeah. And they could be totally wrong. So they were totally wrong about those two national elections. By the way, I'm not I'm not predicting some sort of, you know, miraculous Republican win here. It would be very unusual for the Republicans to win a midterm election when they're in the White House. Right? And you remember that Bill Clinton and Barack Obama both suffered horrendous midterm losses. Bill Clinton, remember, lost... In 1994, he lost to, you know, new king grapes, whole contract with America. That was the first time Republicans took control of the house for the first time in forty years. With Obama, you had... One of his midterms was the shellacking. So it's quite customary for the out of power party to do very well in the midterms. I'm just saying that the media is already portraying this as a tsunami or a bloodbath, and I think it might be a more normal midterm result. That's all I'm saying. So I... In any event, I think people should just go out and vote and not get depressed or psyched out by whatever the media is telling them because the media has a long track record of being wrong and biased.
01:19:43 · Jason Calacanis
[01:19:43] S0: And J. Cal, any view that's different than where we've been in the past? I think polymarket is gonna get it right. I think Democrats are gonna win the senate, 68% chance right now on polymarket. I believe that. And house, obviously, everybody believes that, 92% chance. So when that happens, and and the reason I'll back that up is if you look at the the net approval rating of Trump, all time low. The country is very upset, and the Libs are gonna come out in force to vote anti Trump. The the the moderates are either not gonna show up and they're not gonna be Trump curious like they were for the second term and, you know, Al Kamala was such a disastrous candidate. They were like, okay. I gotta try something else here. And and they went for Trump reasonably. If you were gonna have a choice between Kamala and Trump, I think Trump's the better choice for most Americans. And then you have the fractured Republican Party where the American first people feel really like they got rug pulled by Trump because of the economy. Inflation didn't get solved. The wars didn't get solved, and he started another war. So that group's kinda pissed off. So when you put all that together, I think it's a very easy sweep for the Democrats. Then I think, you know, if we wanna look at what the next two cards are, if you look at impeachment, you know, that that process from what I understand is a house and then senate, and it's a a legal proceeding. I think we're gonna go right back to Trump being impeached, and then both houses are gonna do that. It's gonna be absolute chaos. And then the Dems are gonna start putting legislation out there and force the Republicans to vote against it in order to scuttle JD Vance's chances. So this is obviously gonna be a chaotic two years. You're... You and I... You Let me finish. On. So let me finish before... So what's gonna happen is it's be a chaotic two years, And I think what will come out of that ultimately is we're gonna need some new candidates on the Republican side, and they're gonna put the the the Trump... They're gonna put the the Trump era to bed. And then I think that means they put JD Vance and Marco Rubio to bed, and they're gonna need a new champion that is more populist and actually executes on the populist agenda, which they feel Trump represented but didn't execute on. That's my...