All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
01:11:34 · David Sacks
[01:11:34] S1: Well, I'm seeing people post that Alphabet's Google search revenue drop below 50% of total revenue for the first time and they're making it sound like that's a catastrophic situation. Basically playing into the narrative that the search business is going to be disrupted by SI. And that's what it seems like on the surface, but when I dug into the numbers, it didn't really seem that bad at all. So it's true that Google Search's relative share decreased, but its absolute revenue still increased. So if you look at Google search revenue year over year, it was still up 12%. It increased from 56,000,000,000 to 63,000,000,000. So it's still a roughly $7,000,000,000 year over year increase in Google search. So Google search is still thriving, I think you could say. It's not growing that fast relative to other businesses, but you're not seeing it deteriorate yet. And again, the reason why the share fell below 50% is because other alphabet businesses are simply growing much faster and the main one is Google Cloud which basically doubled year over year to 30,700,000,000. So it's the rise of the Google Cloud business that has made Google search seem like it's on the decline. But I tend to think it's a good thing that Alphabet is now finally getting some of these other businesses to really work and to really grow fast and to finally diversify the revenue. Diversifying from search has been something they've wanted to do for a long time. They now have all these other segments. You've got YouTube, you've got G Suite subscriptions. So in any event, I tend to think Google's a little bit oversold on this news today.
01:13:20 · Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya
[01:13:20] S0: I agree. [01:13:21] S1: Although I'm not... Certainly not telling anyone to buy anything. [01:13:23] S0: Since inception and maybe past ten years, can pull both charts up. We'll go through them real quick here. But this is just... This franchise, the number of searches is still going up. The revenue per search and that issue is obviously the one people are concerned with. But the other side of the coin is absolutely correct, David. The other businesses, they're now only 50% dependent on this business, and that will continue. So for me, I just literally bought some shares. So I'm long. I just bought more shares of Google while doing the show. Just remember, Alphabet owns 6% of SpaceX and, like, 15% of Anthropic as well. I think 85% of Waymo as well. Right? Like, that's the the other piece of this puzzle. Amazon also owns a big piece of Anthropic. They're gonna be a big winner. Alright. Listen. That's our time here. Do you guys wanna talk about the election ahead of Tuesday night and predictions or anything like that? You've been shepherding this. Yeah. What are you guys watching on the midterms? Anything you're keeping an eye on, Chamath? Any big contrarian predictions on what might happen on Tuesday? [01:14:24] S2: It's so interesting. I'm, like, really confused. I've started to stop paying attention just because there's so much misinformation. I thought that we are going to have, and I still think, what Sacks called a spritz. [01:14:40] S0: You know, little spritz?
01:14:40 · Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya
[01:14:40] S0: You know, little spritz? [01:14:41] S2: I think it's more of a democratic spritz. But when you look at some of the the early data, you know, and I don't know if Bret Baier was doing this just to kind of hedge his bets or not, but he did a clip which went viral on X where it just looked like it was gonna be a bloodbath for the Republicans, and they were gonna lose both sides, both the Senate and and the House. I think it's still set up to have the Republicans keep the Senate and the Democrats to have a narrow majority. And just going back to maybe where we started, the mandate from the Democrats then becomes obvious, which is how do you introduce FUD? And there's one way to do that, which is to start subpoenaing everybody and start to do disclosure discovery, release document after document after document, and let, you know, the the masses start to churn through this stuff going into '28. So number one, create FUD. And then number two is I think a economic slowdown benefits the Democrats going into the twenty eight election cycle, and so whatever they can do to kind of, like, influence power permitting and data centers, because as we talked about earlier, that's the levered bet. So to me, it almost doesn't matter what happens at the federal level except for the FUD part. I think we now should be paying a ton of attention to what's happening in these governorships and some of these some of these other races. [01:16:10] S0: Sacks, has your view changed?
01:16:10 · Jason Calacanis, David Sacks
[01:16:10] S0: Sacks, has your view changed? [01:16:12] S1: Look. I think that you can't trust any of these polls. First of all, a couple of these polling firms have come out and admitted that they are fake. I mean, we literally have a couple of [01:16:23] S0: Oh, yeah. There was a hoax, right?
01:16:24 · David Sacks
[01:16:24] S1: Fake polls. There was literally a hoax and and those fake polls were included in, you know, those averages. So some of the polls are outright fraudulent and then the rest of them are well known to have a bias. Patrick Ruffini did a study of the last three elections and found that three quarters of the polls all, you know, aired in favor of Democrats. So we see this as a recurring pattern. We saw this in 2024. You had Ann Selzer, who was supposedly the gold standard, say that Trump was gonna lose Iowa by, like, 10 or something like that, and it turned out to be total nonsense. So the pollsters have a history of bias, of fraud, or you could just say, for some reason, oversampling progressives in their polls. So I think that people should shut that out. I think that some of them are a tactic designed to depress and suppress turnout, and Republicans should just go out there and vote. The the economy is not a disaster. That is total fake news. We know what the growth rates are. It was two and a half percent in the last quarter, and it's tracking at 3.7% right now. Median household income is almost $90,000. It's at an all time high. Poverty is at an all time low. I think the percent of people below the poverty line is like 12%. It's the lowest it's ever been. It's not just a k shaped recovery. You're seeing real wage growth in real terms by the average household, which was not true during the Biden years. So I don't think people should get psyched out by this media operation to make people super depressed about what's going on.
01:18:00 · Jason Calacanis
[01:18:00] S0: Jay Cal, any views? Oh, well, I agree. The polling data has been, you know, a suspect for a long time now across many elections. Wedgewood did this, like, they're claiming performance art, but they were kinda serious. I I don't know who they're working for or or what the shenanigans are, but I do trust Polymarket. I think when you look at the Polymarket, pretty clear what's gonna happen here. I can tell