All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
00:38:41 · Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya
Like, meaning, they're not gonna control the chips. They're gonna control the actual compute layer, and they're gonna determine who's gonna get access to what amount of compute, I think, for governments to compete. And I think one of the ways this is gonna play out to Chamath's point is in the near term in capital. There's more capital going to the AI organizations and the government. The governments aren't gonna wanna let that happen. So they're gonna try and stop the data centers because then [00:39:13] S2: I've never seen something in my adult working life where a complex of a handful of companies are effectively competing with governments now for capital because you've never seen companies in an organized manner have one very narrow thing that they need money for that is a one way bet on something that attracts the same amount of money that would otherwise go to a traditional two, three, four, five year, ten year bond auction. It's it's kinda nutty, actually. By the way, the [00:39:43] S0: story you're gonna hear from both sides is a story of which side benefits the people more, and that's gonna be the narrative argument, which is gonna be every side's gonna say the other side's lying. Because remember, if one side's lying and another side's not lying [00:39:58] S2: Yeah.
00:39:58 · Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Sacks
[00:39:58] S2: Yeah. [00:39:58] S0: The side that's not lying says, hey. Those guys are lying, and they're correct. The side that is lying de facto says that the other side is lying because they're liars. And so you'll hear both sides screaming, we are the better path for society. We are the better path for humanity. It's either government or private market AI, and that'll be the huge battle that's gonna brew over the next half decade. [00:40:22] S1: Wow. [00:40:23] S0: And we'll see which one Politicians are for sale and Dario and Anthropic should start buying just like the right did. [00:40:30] S1: Oh, they already have. [00:40:31] S0: I don't see them with champions. Where are their champions? Do they have champions yet? [00:40:36] S1: For sure. Listen. Anthropic, even as a startup, prioritized government affairs. They were very active during the Biden administration. All those former Biden officials who were doing AI in the Biden administration immediately joined Anthropic [00:40:51] S0: My point, Sacks, is that you don't [00:40:53] S1: the end of twenty twenty four. [00:40:54] S0: No. No. I get that. But you don't see them doing what you guys did, hosting a fundraiser for Trump, being out there publicly in front of it. You don't see them [00:41:01] S1: out there. But they've they've spent... They've created packs. Sure. And all sorts of entities and nonprofits, all NGOs, all that kind of stuff, and they have been massively funding it. They have a huge government [00:41:12] S0: fairy you guys did, like, in, you know, getting out there and
00:41:12 · Jason Calacanis, David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya
[00:41:12] S0: fairy you guys did, like, in, you know, getting out there and [00:41:15] S1: What do you mean you... I don't know what you mean by you guys. I [00:41:20] S0: did were public about your support for Trump. I've never seen Dario publicly come out for any politics. [00:41:26] S1: Yeah. Exactly. I'm not I'm not... Can you let me explain? Not a corporation. [00:41:29] S0: Of course. [00:41:30] S1: I'm just one person who has views and, yeah, I support certain candidates and I do fundraisers for candidates. I'm not, like, seeking regulatory capture. I'm just one person No. [00:41:39] S0: I'm I'm saying why hasn't Dario or the other founders done that? Why haven't they said we choose this candidate? We choose these candidates? [00:41:45] S2: We don't know that they haven't. [00:41:46] S0: How do we know they done it publicly because we've never heard them do it. That's my Sure. But [00:41:50] S1: they have given huge amounts of money [00:41:52] S0: to us. Agree they've done it properly. [00:41:53] S1: Which which is public information and those PACs have supported candidates. [00:41:56] S0: If they're gonna make a run at this, they should do it publicly. [00:41:59] S1: There's a huge revolving door where Anthropic has been snapping up every former official. First, it was the Biden administration. Now, frankly, they're hiring a lot of former Trump administration officials. [00:42:11] S0: Oh, really?
00:42:11 · Jason Calacanis, David Sacks
[00:42:11] S0: Oh, really? [00:42:11] S1: And... Oh, yeah. This... And this is all public information. Yeah. But they are building a massive government affairs operation. And look, I think you can expect that as they power up through all of this capital, having a $2,000,000,000,000 market gap [00:42:24] S0: That's my point. [00:42:25] S1: They're gonna have even more influence in Washington or they're gonna be capable of buying a lot more influence. And I think that is concerning. One thing I will say though is that as they go from being a startup to being a public company that's one of the top handful of companies by market cap on earth, it's gonna be very obvious that they are a big tech company and therefore they should be treated like other big tech companies, which is to say with suspicion, as opposed to this being some poor little startup that, you know, has innocuous views or is not the 800 pound gorilla they actually are. So I do think it'll be clarifying on that level for them to be seen correctly as what I've been saying is that they are the most powerful monopoly or duopoly ever in human history, which is they're creating AGI, right? I've been saying that for a long time. So I do think that them going public will actually right size them in the public consciousness. [00:43:24] S0: Yeah. My And one
00:43:25 · David Sacks
[00:43:25] S1: thing you're you're seeing already actually is there's starting to be a doomer anthropic split. There's a very interesting article in Vox, which is this huge doomer publication over the past week, and it was quoting a bunch of these NGOs, kind of doomer NGOs, that were basically pointing out that, you know, like Anthropic actually, if you if you separate their rhetoric from what they actually do, they are the ones leading the charge on Recursive Self Improvement. There's no single company in the world that is doing more to race towards full RSI than Anthropic. They are hell bent for leather on getting to full recursive self improvement. In fact, a lot of the reason why they are becoming so efficient with their compute, the reason they're able to cut costs, offer the same capability at one tenth the price, is because they've increasingly been using their own models to generate these algorithmic improvements, to create these compute multipliers. If you go back to August, Anthropic published a very interesting blog talking about how they were using RSI and and 26, they had a chart showing that 26% of their tasks that are involved in basically trying to create the next generation of models, they were already were using RSI to do that. Now that was back in August, so who knows what they're at now being in October. So look, they are pursuing RSI very very quickly and you know, one way to think about that whole pacing letter that Dario published a few months ago is it's almost like they're creating an alibi for themselves where they are acknowledging that, hey, we are pursuing RSI as quickly as anyone and it's almost like they're saying to the world, well, we want it to stop. Right? Like, we want it to slow down. We tried to get you all to agree to pace, but you guys wouldn't agree to do that. So therefore, we kept going. You know? And it's almost like creating an alibi in advance for themselves if this RSI thing goes really bad.
00:45:29 · Jason Calacanis, David Sacks
[00:45:29] S0: Alright. [00:45:30] S1: But I think that they had to know when they published that pacing letter that they're not gonna get the whole world on board with pacing. So the whole thing was sort of an exercise in virtue signaling. But in any event, I think what it shows again is I do think that it's possible that an anthropic doom or split is coming because there's no way for them to maintain their lead as the number one superintelligence company without continuing to advance the frontier very rapidly and to continue to pursue recursive self improvement. And that is something that the doomers are most afraid of. Of all the of all the various risks, right, they are most worried about a breakaway superintelligence. So I do think that this is the beginning maybe of a divorce between Anthropic and the doomers, but we'll see. [00:46:22] S0: Okay. Let's get back to your breakdown, Chamath. You had the the greatest revenue, greatest business ever built, yada yada. They have a ton of cash. They have the cash for the build out. They're gonna raise some cash in the IPO, and they are... They... All of this bond activity is crowding out treasuries is where you left off, I believe. So let's continue.