All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
00:19:50 · Chamath Palihapitiya
They're not afraid of customer traction because they they rarely mention it. They're not really afraid of employees leaving because you'd be an idiot to leave if you were inside, and they don't really care about taxes and any of these other things. So this is a business that is very much on the forward foot that understands the binding constraint. So now if you know that the the compute is their biggest risk factor, then you double click into that. And I had my team run a further analysis, which is to say, okay, how do they describe these risks, right? How many times do they mention them? How many words are you spilling talking about this? And what you find is that inside of the compute problem, their biggest issue is really data centers. And then further, it's the financing commitments that they have and it's the power. All of these are really important because, again, it helps us highlight what the binding constraint is to this business. So as goes data centers, as goes power, and by the way, this is a great setup for the politicians because it's very obvious if you're a Democrat as you read this, and I'll speak about it in a second, what you should be trying to do to win in '28 versus what Republicans have to do in '28. Right? Basically, the takeaway from all of this is I think antisemblematic of the entire AI complex, which is to say it's all about data centers, which means it's all about power. If you're a Democrat, the best thing you wanna do is slow all of this down so that there's a recession going into '28. The only thing you need to do is slow down power and slow down data centers. On the other side, if you're a Republican and you wanna have the best chance of winning in '28, this is the one thing that must be done right. You must get the power, electricity, data center thing right.
00:21:40 · Jason Calacanis
[00:21:40] S0: Okay. So based on this, your premise is they need data centers. If they don't get data centers, it can't keep growing. However, Sacks, the truth is these are the liberal of all liberals in Silicon Valley. It is the largest amount of money that has ever been made by founders outside of Elon Musk. It would make sense to me perhaps the opposite of what Chamath saying. Shouldn't the Democrats come in and say, we are pro data center and energy because this is gonna help society because they wanna see Dario and his group win because they are gonna be the equivalent on the left of Elon Musk on the right. Wouldn't it be better for them to steal the the data center charge and make Anthropic even more profitable so that that 51% of all of their... Or 80% of all their money just flows into democratic super PACs?
00:22:40 · David Sacks, Jason Calacanis
[00:22:40] S1: Maybe. But I don't think that's the democratic party that we have today. I mean, the old Clinton Democrats... I mean, Bill Clinton Democrats are long gone. I don't think the abundance Democrats are picking up a lot of momentum. I mean, the Democrat Party is... As Gavin Newsom said, is becoming DSA dominated. So what is their agenda with respect to superintelligence? Either to ban it outright as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and AOC want to do. They basically want twenty year jail sentences for developers of superintelligence and they want corporate death penalty for companies that build superintelligence. Or they want to have some extremely draconian regulatory regime that would feature a federal department of AI or federal department of SI, I guess, that would review and approve every single model before its release. Basically, they wanna have a DMV for models. [00:23:37] S0: Let me [00:23:37] S1: challenge Look, that is that is the democratic agenda on this. Now, could that be shifted through oligarchs like, I don't know, Reid Hoffman or maybe some of these new Anthropic oligarchs like maybe a Dustin Moskowitz, something like that? Maybe they can, through their massive influence in democratic circles, could effectuate a change. But I tend to think that Chamath is right that democrats want to do anything they can to sabotage the Trump economy and this whole SI boom is what is driving the Trump economy right now. I tend to think that's gonna be the partisan that's gonna be the partisan impetus.
00:23:37 · David Sacks, Jason Calacanis
[00:23:37] S1: challenge Look, that is that is the democratic agenda on this. Now, could that be shifted through oligarchs like, I don't know, Reid Hoffman or maybe some of these new Anthropic oligarchs like maybe a Dustin Moskowitz, something like that? Maybe they can, through their massive influence in democratic circles, could effectuate a change. But I tend to think that Chamath is right that democrats want to do anything they can to sabotage the Trump economy and this whole SI boom is what is driving the Trump economy right now. I tend to think that's gonna be the partisan that's gonna be the partisan impetus. [00:24:18] S0: So you don't need to do much, I think, Friedberg, to scuttle the Trump economy since the the war, tariffs, and all that other stuff have driven inflation and all those problems. Wouldn't it be smarter for the Democrats I to [00:24:33] S1: mean, just just hold hold on a second. Mean, look. Calacanis, I think the latest numbers from like Fed GDP now, I think it was 3.7% in q three, and it was two and a half percent in the first half of the year. And you could also look at all the CapEx that's being spent right now on this build out and it's roughly 3% of GDP. So you could say that all of the economic growth in The United States right now is coming from this superintelligence build out.
00:24:33 · David Sacks, Jason Calacanis
[00:24:33] S1: mean, just just hold hold on a second. Mean, look. Calacanis, I think the latest numbers from like Fed GDP now, I think it was 3.7% in q three, and it was two and a half percent in the first half of the year. And you could also look at all the CapEx that's being spent right now on this build out and it's roughly 3% of GDP. So you could say that all of the economic growth in The United States right now is coming from this superintelligence build out. [00:25:03] S0: Concur with that. We can have fun with numbers, but the Trump economy is a disaster according to Trump's own supporters. So let's just call balls and strikes here. His own voters, the independents who flipped over and voted for him, they are very displeased with the economy and that can be seen very clearly in him having the worst approval rating of his entire career and there's been some doozies in that career. Friedberg, what should the Democrats... [00:25:30] S1: I don't think... Even even those critics, even... First of all, I don't know what Trump supporters you're talking about. [00:25:35] S0: I'm talking about the America First people who feel that he didn't deport the 20,000,000 people that they No. Know. I know. I'm just talking about that cohort that you could put Tucker in there, you could put Megan in there, you you know, all that sphere.
00:25:35 · Jason Calacanis, David Sacks
[00:25:35] S0: I'm talking about the America First people who feel that he didn't deport the 20,000,000 people that they No. Know. I know. I'm just talking about that cohort that you could put Tucker in there, you could put Megan in there, you you know, all that sphere. [00:25:47] S1: Yes. There are definitely people who don't like the war and they recognize that there is some inflation being caused by the war, but I don't think they've said the economy is a disaster. Anyway, whatever. I don't wanna put both of out of words. [00:26:00] S0: If you're not an equity holder, I think you look at this economy and say both parties, Biden and this Trump two point o, I think the the bottom half of the economy believes that both parties don't care about them. That... That's what all the feedback that you're getting, and and we'll confirm it all next Tuesday and see what happens with the actual voting. Chamath, let's continue your teardown.