All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
00:17:29 · Chamath Palihapitiya
[00:17:29] S2: You probably would have thought that headcount would have doubled too. And the reality is headcount stayed flat, and we don't know how many people will take this offer that Microsoft just gave for, you know, to to leave because I think they offered it up to 60,000 people, but this number could be under 200,000 depending on how many take it. And so just the scale and the impact on the productivity, to your point, this idea that it creates job loss, don't think it's true. It's more that you're seeing productivity gains at the same number of human input, and I think that's interesting. I went through the s one. You want me to give you my little s one breakdown? Mhmm. This is the most incredible business I've ever seen. I hope that they go public after November 11 because it will force them to update with q three, and then we'll get even more insight into... This is like some contraption that I've never seen before. I've never seen a business like this. It's really, really, really incredible. So let's cross our fingers because post November 11, you'll see q three drop. What people have been whispering is that the revenue growth kind of moderated to sort of like the 50% range. Q4 is TBD, but let's break this down in a bunch of charts because I think it's interesting. Okay, so Nick, start with chart number one and we'll just go through them one by one. Okay, so the first thing that I always read in an S1 is what are the risk factors? And what I had my team do is I said go put together a word cloud. This is great, is cool. First tell me what are they afraid of, okay? And when you look at it, the share of words in the risk factors that are allocated to different risks are very important, and what this tells you is the single biggest risk to the ant business is compute. They mention it more than anything else. And specifically inside of compute they talk about data centers, power, chips, grid, electricity, hardware, etcetera. Then a close second but still second is regulation. Okay? They care about government policy. They care about sanctions. They care about export controls. Then it's this idea of zero data retention and privacy and IP. Then it's AI safety. Then it's just making money. Then there's their competitors. Then there's governance. What you notice is what are they not afraid of?
00:19:50 · Chamath Palihapitiya
They're not afraid of customer traction because they they rarely mention it. They're not really afraid of employees leaving because you'd be an idiot to leave if you were inside, and they don't really care about taxes and any of these other things. So this is a business that is very much on the forward foot that understands the binding constraint. So now if you know that the the compute is their biggest risk factor, then you double click into that. And I had my team run a further analysis, which is to say, okay, how do they describe these risks, right? How many times do they mention them? How many words are you spilling talking about this? And what you find is that inside of the compute problem, their biggest issue is really data centers. And then further, it's the financing commitments that they have and it's the power. All of these are really important because, again, it helps us highlight what the binding constraint is to this business. So as goes data centers, as goes power, and by the way, this is a great setup for the politicians because it's very obvious if you're a Democrat as you read this, and I'll speak about it in a second, what you should be trying to do to win in '28 versus what Republicans have to do in '28. Right? Basically, the takeaway from all of this is I think antisemblematic of the entire AI complex, which is to say it's all about data centers, which means it's all about power. If you're a Democrat, the best thing you wanna do is slow all of this down so that there's a recession going into '28. The only thing you need to do is slow down power and slow down data centers. On the other side, if you're a Republican and you wanna have the best chance of winning in '28, this is the one thing that must be done right. You must get the power, electricity, data center thing right.
00:21:40 · Jason Calacanis
[00:21:40] S0: Okay. So based on this, your premise is they need data centers. If they don't get data centers, it can't keep growing. However, Sacks, the truth is these are the liberal of all liberals in Silicon Valley. It is the largest amount of money that has ever been made by founders outside of Elon Musk. It would make sense to me perhaps the opposite of what Chamath saying. Shouldn't the Democrats come in and say, we are pro data center and energy because this is gonna help society because they wanna see Dario and his group win because they are gonna be the equivalent on the left of Elon Musk on the right. Wouldn't it be better for them to steal the the data center charge and make Anthropic even more profitable so that that 51% of all of their... Or 80% of all their money just flows into democratic super PACs?
00:22:40 · David Sacks, Jason Calacanis
[00:22:40] S1: Maybe. But I don't think that's the democratic party that we have today. I mean, the old Clinton Democrats... I mean, Bill Clinton Democrats are long gone. I don't think the abundance Democrats are picking up a lot of momentum. I mean, the Democrat Party is... As Gavin Newsom said, is becoming DSA dominated. So what is their agenda with respect to superintelligence? Either to ban it outright as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and AOC want to do. They basically want twenty year jail sentences for developers of superintelligence and they want corporate death penalty for companies that build superintelligence. Or they want to have some extremely draconian regulatory regime that would feature a federal department of AI or federal department of SI, I guess, that would review and approve every single model before its release. Basically, they wanna have a DMV for models. [00:23:37] S0: Let me [00:23:37] S1: challenge Look, that is that is the democratic agenda on this. Now, could that be shifted through oligarchs like, I don't know, Reid Hoffman or maybe some of these new Anthropic oligarchs like maybe a Dustin Moskowitz, something like that? Maybe they can, through their massive influence in democratic circles, could effectuate a change. But I tend to think that Chamath is right that democrats want to do anything they can to sabotage the Trump economy and this whole SI boom is what is driving the Trump economy right now. I tend to think that's gonna be the partisan that's gonna be the partisan impetus.
00:23:37 · David Sacks, Jason Calacanis
[00:23:37] S1: challenge Look, that is that is the democratic agenda on this. Now, could that be shifted through oligarchs like, I don't know, Reid Hoffman or maybe some of these new Anthropic oligarchs like maybe a Dustin Moskowitz, something like that? Maybe they can, through their massive influence in democratic circles, could effectuate a change. But I tend to think that Chamath is right that democrats want to do anything they can to sabotage the Trump economy and this whole SI boom is what is driving the Trump economy right now. I tend to think that's gonna be the partisan that's gonna be the partisan impetus. [00:24:18] S0: So you don't need to do much, I think, Friedberg, to scuttle the Trump economy since the the war, tariffs, and all that other stuff have driven inflation and all those problems. Wouldn't it be smarter for the Democrats I to [00:24:33] S1: mean, just just hold hold on a second. Mean, look. Calacanis, I think the latest numbers from like Fed GDP now, I think it was 3.7% in q three, and it was two and a half percent in the first half of the year. And you could also look at all the CapEx that's being spent right now on this build out and it's roughly 3% of GDP. So you could say that all of the economic growth in The United States right now is coming from this superintelligence build out.
00:24:33 · David Sacks, Jason Calacanis
[00:24:33] S1: mean, just just hold hold on a second. Mean, look. Calacanis, I think the latest numbers from like Fed GDP now, I think it was 3.7% in q three, and it was two and a half percent in the first half of the year. And you could also look at all the CapEx that's being spent right now on this build out and it's roughly 3% of GDP. So you could say that all of the economic growth in The United States right now is coming from this superintelligence build out. [00:25:03] S0: Concur with that. We can have fun with numbers, but the Trump economy is a disaster according to Trump's own supporters. So let's just call balls and strikes here. His own voters, the independents who flipped over and voted for him, they are very displeased with the economy and that can be seen very clearly in him having the worst approval rating of his entire career and there's been some doozies in that career. Friedberg, what should the Democrats... [00:25:30] S1: I don't think... Even even those critics, even... First of all, I don't know what Trump supporters you're talking about. [00:25:35] S0: I'm talking about the America First people who feel that he didn't deport the 20,000,000 people that they No. Know. I know. I'm just talking about that cohort that you could put Tucker in there, you could put Megan in there, you you know, all that sphere.