The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
00:33:36 · Scott Galloway
[00:33:36] S1: Look, I have a bias here. I'm basically thinking you can't trust anything that's coming out of this administration. So what happened at the BLS? In August 2025, Trump fired BLS commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, I think that's how you say her name. I'm sorry, Erica. After a weak July jobs report, he accused her of bias against him without evidence. Extras rejected the charge noting the commissioner didn't produce the monthly estimates. Trump then nominated EJ Antoni, a conservative fireman with no government statistics experience. I'm mad at the public. I mean don't voters realize that if you prioritize fealty over confidence eventually like shit's not going to work? Anyways, according to The Wall Street Journal who had suggested suspending the monthly jobs report, after major bipartisan backlash, the White House withdrew the pick. Finally, in August of this year, the Senate confirmed Brett Matsumoto as BLS commissioner. Matsumoto is a career Matsumoto is a career BLS economist with eleven years of government, including a stint as senior economist at Trump's economic or Trump's council of economic advisers. Former BLS commissioner from both parties praised the pick. He's been hailed as a data nerd. But here's here's why the numbers... You know, you can have your own opinions, you can have your own data. And here's why the numbers are hard to fake regardless of who's in charge. Economists and frequent property markets guest Justin Wolfers says that the BLS survived intact. Career staff keep producing the data with the same processes and internal checks. Or put another way, Justin's saying you can trust these numbers. The jobs report draws on two separate surveys, one of household and one of employers. Outside researchers check the household data every month, and the employer's numbers are later checked against state unemployment insurance records. Private payroll data from companies like ADP, Bank of America, paychecks would start to diverge if the official numbers were doctored. Woofers tells us that real tampering would look like a tax on statisticians, unexplained changes in methods, and switch from monthly to quarterly reports. So where the numbers are actually weaker, fewer people fewer people answer BLS surveys, and the agency is short staffed and underfunded. Response rates fell from 66% in 2016 to 35% last December.
00:35:58 · Scott Galloway, Scott Galloway
And I also wonder who's actually answering these things. And funding fell more than 22% between 2010 and 2025 after inflation. Fewer responses means bigger revisions. BLS later found that it over job growth by roughly 860,000 jobs in the year ending March 2025. Why does this data matter? BLS produces the country's most important economic numbers, including inflation and unemployment, and its nonpartisan reputation is crucial to why global investors and policymakers rely on it so much. BLS staff had been saying a glass of water is never half full or half empty. It's 50% water and 50% air. In sum, these numbers matter. They're hard to mess with. But at some point, when you just choke it about oxygen and resources, it does begin... It does become harder to produce reliable, robust data. So anyways, I would say the answer is mixed, but I appreciate the question. That's all for this episode. If you'd like to submit a question for next time, email a voice recording to officehours@propmedia.com. Again, that's officehours@propgmedia.com or posted on the Scott Galloway subreddit. [00:37:04] S0: This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Laura Jenner. Cami Rica is our social producer, Brad Williams is our editor, and Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening [00:37:13] S1: to The Prof G Pod and Prof G Media.