00:20:43 · Aman Narain, Zubin Vandrevala
[00:20:43] S0: Exactly. And people think always about Google when it comes to advertising, but Amazon's massive. And retail's real profit pool is attention. So agents threaten that ad model more than the tilt. The incumbent with the biggest ad business walls in. The one chasing shares opens up, even with ads of its own. Walmart's open, Amazon blocks. And I've seen this film from the bank side. Banks fought the aggregators, scraping their customer logins, and they continue now to try and do that with agents. But in 2018, Britain's competition regulator made the biggest banks open APIs. Similar things happened in India. Similar has happened in Singapore with consent screens, of course. Amazon is essentially the bank in this story. [00:21:33] S1: Yeah. And it's... Let's do a reality check. Right? ICSE and McKinsey found that about 68% of American shoppers used an AI tool while shopping in the first quarter. But in Capgemini's global survey, 71% worry about how Gen AI uses their data. And then, I think, what, 76% the ability to set strict limits on an AI assistant. [00:21:56] S0: Curious, but I guess they're not yet trusted. [00:21:59] S1: That's true. That's true. And and you're opened against walled split is too neat. On Amazon's results calls in February, Andy Jassy said of the AI companies, and this is quote, We have to try to find a customer experience together that's better. I I don't... This isn't a wall. What I read it is a tollgate, the JPMC of of banking, right, which is still under construction.
00:21:59 · Zubin Vandrevala, Aman Narain
[00:21:59] S1: That's true. That's true. And and you're opened against walled split is too neat. On Amazon's results calls in February, Andy Jassy said of the AI companies, and this is quote, We have to try to find a customer experience together that's better. I I don't... This isn't a wall. What I read it is a tollgate, the JPMC of of banking, right, which is still under construction. [00:22:24] S0: Yeah. That's fair. Open against walled isn't binary, I think. Amazon is likelier to, I guess, sell access on its own terms than to stay shut. I guess you could have that one, Zubin. [00:22:37] S1: Alright. The walled concession number one. [00:22:40] S0: Okay. So act three, the future out to 2035. Four forces, and they spell CART, compression of time and distance, agents, rails, and tolls, meaning where the rent goes. [00:22:59] S1: Wow. You spent a lot of time on that acronym, man. [00:23:02] S0: It's like your interchange one. Right? It's Alright. [00:23:06] S1: Alright. God. God. Go on. Go on. Go on. [00:23:09] S0: Okay. I have, and I'm I'm not sorry to spend some time on this. Next to it is a framework of our own, the delegation ladder. Round one is the agent researches. Two, it recommends. Three, it fills the basket and you tap to pay. Four, it pays by itself within limits you set. And then five, your agent negotiates with the shop's agent.
00:23:09 · Aman Narain, Zubin Vandrevala
[00:23:09] S0: Okay. I have, and I'm I'm not sorry to spend some time on this. Next to it is a framework of our own, the delegation ladder. Round one is the agent researches. Two, it recommends. Three, it fills the basket and you tap to pay. Four, it pays by itself within limits you set. And then five, your agent negotiates with the shop's agent. [00:23:37] S1: And the feds draw the line between three and four. At Cyborg's governor Waller split agent assistant commerce where you still pay from agent delegated where the agent can buy. Almost all of today's volume sits on rungs one to three. [00:23:55] S0: Yeah. Prophecy, the forecasts, and the ruler problem. [00:24:00] S1: Well, that's true. That's true. So forecast for agentic commerce runs anywhere from 144,000,000,000 to about 5,000,000,000,000, which is crazy, a 35 fold gap. This isn't a disagreement. It's just different rulers. The shortest is e mark... Marketers, 144,000,000,000 by 2029, which really counts only US sales completed inside an AI platform. Morgan Stanley counts US purchases and agent executes at about somewhere between $1.90 to $385,000,000,000 by 2030. Bain's counts anything an agent initiated influences or completes, which is somewhere in that 300 to 500,000,000,000 in The US by '20 [00:24:45] S0: So essentially, one measures the till, one the hand on the basket, and one the whisper in your ear.
00:24:45 · Aman Narain, Zubin Vandrevala
[00:24:45] S0: So essentially, one measures the till, one the hand on the basket, and one the whisper in your ear. [00:24:52] S1: Yeah. And I know you got to the biggest one. And then our our friends at McKinsey, the longest ruler, come that up to a trillion dollars in The US and, you know, somewhere about 3 to 5,000,000,000,000 with a t globally by 2030. And this is for consumer goods orchestrated by agents, and orchestrated is doing the heavy lifting. It's not about completed. [00:25:16] S0: And what about Gartner's 15,000,000,000,000? [00:25:18] S1: Alright. That's different planets. Right? So I think that's more b to b buying. I think it's by 2028. Bigger and boring first because purchase orders and approved suppliers come with card raised built in. [00:25:30] S0: Okay. Payables agent pays suppliers invoices against purchase orders with scoped credit card credentials. Visa is piloting exactly that with Bill and Bill Trust. Now the number I promised you, the one that should make you doubt the hype. [00:25:49] S1: Less than 1%. Bain in May, AI is under 1% of total retail website traffic, even where it's up to quarter of outside referrals. And I think checkout.com did this... Their own data report in in July, puts agents at about 3% of transactions. [00:26:11] S0: And yet, the people who do arrive from AI, they buy.
00:26:11 · Aman Narain, Zubin Vandrevala
[00:26:11] S0: And yet, the people who do arrive from AI, they buy. [00:26:15] S1: They do. And and it's funny because I referenced a lot of this data in my webinar earlier today. Adobe did this really good study, which says AI referred shoppers convert 54% better than other traffic. And what's crazy is less than a year ago, it was 23% worse. Let that sink in, that sort of shift that has happened. And granted, this is a small and tiny base, and I would even peel the onion one layer back. Even if it's not just a lift in conversion, because these shoppers show up with better intent, they're staying on the page longer and they're buying. [00:26:54] S0: Yeah. And and we talked a little bit about Stripe's John Collison. [00:26:58] S1: That's right. I even have my Cheeky Pint podcast mug, where his deep dives reports sees as agentic activity only as of September basically started going vertical. Vertical from a small base, and he gives no numbers. [00:27:14] S0: So AI is already a research engine and barely a buyer. Discovery moves first, checkout follows later. [00:27:23] S1: Yeah. It's a crowded field, Aman. Right? Meta says Muse passed 10,000,000 users in six weeks. I think it was five in the first week, so it really doubled in first four weeks. So it's, like, really doubling in a really, really quick period of time. But $200 an order, Meta's own numbers. OpenAI has dots. Google has open protocols for the card and payment mandate. In fact, they launched their universal protocol earlier this month. And then Anthropic has Claude Duet in preview.
00:27:23 · Zubin Vandrevala, Aman Narain
[00:27:23] S1: Yeah. It's a crowded field, Aman. Right? Meta says Muse passed 10,000,000 users in six weeks. I think it was five in the first week, so it really doubled in first four weeks. So it's, like, really doubling in a really, really quick period of time. But $200 an order, Meta's own numbers. OpenAI has dots. Google has open protocols for the card and payment mandate. In fact, they launched their universal protocol earlier this month. And then Anthropic has Claude Duet in preview. [00:27:51] S0: I know. It came out almost as we launched our bots program. And, course, we use Claude in our own production efforts increasingly. So [00:28:02] S1: That's right. So hold your dates loosely. Gartner expects more than 40% of agentic AI projects to be canceled by the end of twenty twenty seven. And of 50 retail executives McKinsey surveyed, 45 had considered an agentic tool, and fewer than five had a borderline strategy. [00:28:22] S0: Alright. My own date for mainstream delegated checkout for ordinary shoppers, rung four, was the end of twenty twenty eight. I'm moving there now, I think, to 2030. [00:28:33] S1: The trough concession. I'll take that. That's two. [00:28:38] S0: Don't get used to it. Okay. Rails, Zubin and the human problem, Governor Waller put in one line at CyBoss. Who is on the hook if an agent makes the wrong purchase? Professor Z, know your agent.