00:24:15 · Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal, Alex Altmann
[00:24:15] S0: This is part of the problem. You tweet everything before you tell it to me, and so I can't react to it in real time. [00:24:20] S2: And now I'm really upset that you said that because you saw the tweet from my private alt. I did not tweet that from my main account. And now a bunch of people are going to know that I have an alt and they're going to ask me for it and you're not going to get it. So I wish you hadn't said that. Sorry. [00:24:33] S0: Sorry. I can't, I can't differentiate the two. [00:24:35] S1: Can I, can I, can I jump in? [00:24:36] S0: Yeah, of course. [00:24:37] S1: So what, what's that worth to you a month? What? Well, just to have that ability, let's just say almost like an account executive or something or like an administrator, you know, Because to answer that question, it matters. It matters for the revenue profile, right? [00:24:52] S0: I mean, also, if you just had the right user interface on a calendar, this would be solved too, wouldn't it? If you know you have to be somewhere at 3 p.m., 4 p.m., 5 p.m. There's a lot.
00:24:52 · Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal
[00:24:52] S0: I mean, also, if you just had the right user interface on a calendar, this would be solved too, wouldn't it? If you know you have to be somewhere at 3 p.m., 4 p.m., 5 p.m. There's a lot. [00:25:02] S2: Of things that are in so many different emails. So, for example, my daughter goes to– I take her to play rehearsals. And some days, it's from 1 to 6 in the afternoon on Sundays. But some days, they don't do the full cast for the five hours. So somewhere in the email, it says, oh, these students or these participants, they can leave at 3 and stuff. And it's scattered across so many emails. And I don't know which emails to read, which ones they're in. And so being able to say, Chad, it's Sunday, October 25th or whatever. What time am I supposed to pick up my daughter at 3 or 6? It's very easy and nice to have. [00:25:40] S0: Fair enough. I just want to go back to the beginning of the conversation. You talked about neoclouds as the sort of tip of the spear and maybe being in the beginning of the denial phase. What do you think would spook investors? What should we look out for next in terms of a degradation in the AI bull belief? [00:26:03] S2: That's a great question.
00:26:03 · Joe Weisenthal, Alex Altmann
[00:26:03] S2: That's a great question. [00:26:06] S1: Off the top of my head, I would say it would be some level of capex being reined in by one of the hyperscalers. In fact, on the walk over here, I was asked by one of my clients who was questioning whether that would actually even come up potentially in the results this week. And famous last words, it's probably still premature. Joe, to answer your question about West Coast, East Coast, if you think about West Coast, the further you are closer to the epicenter of this technology, I'm sorry, the closer you are to the epicenter, the more I would say that both the companies and investors are bought in. [00:26:44] S2: On that narrative. [00:26:46] S1: And there's definitely kind of almost like an echo chamber within that certain ecosystem. You think about the rooms that people are sitting in. So my suspicion is that it's not going to be these set of results. And that may be we have to wait till the new year that we get some kind of potential temperament of the enthusiasm. But Google kind of set this all off again for the next wave because on the CapEx side, it was actually the last set of results where they said it's going to be, I forget the exact wording they used, but they were talking about CapEx being significantly higher. And that got everyone enthused once again and got them all G'd up.
00:26:46 · Alex Altmann, Tracy Alloway
[00:26:46] S1: And there's definitely kind of almost like an echo chamber within that certain ecosystem. You think about the rooms that people are sitting in. So my suspicion is that it's not going to be these set of results. And that may be we have to wait till the new year that we get some kind of potential temperament of the enthusiasm. But Google kind of set this all off again for the next wave because on the CapEx side, it was actually the last set of results where they said it's going to be, I forget the exact wording they used, but they were talking about CapEx being significantly higher. And that got everyone enthused once again and got them all G'd up. [00:27:29] S0: Well, Oracle just said at its investor day that it was going to limit its additional fundraising to, I think, $ 20 billion through May. So we might be getting close to that. But again, the reaction so far is this is a good thing and the build-out can continue as long as people are raising a reasonable amount of capital, I guess. [00:27:49] S1: Yeah. And that kind of goes back to maybe just a slightly more holistic market view, which is This almost S & P does nothing because what's good for hyperscalers will be bad for memory. So you just get this constant violent rotation. And I call it like a knife fight in a phone booth, you know, for all these funds that have to run long, short portfolios.
00:27:49 · Alex Altmann, Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Alloway
[00:27:49] S1: Yeah. And that kind of goes back to maybe just a slightly more holistic market view, which is This almost S & P does nothing because what's good for hyperscalers will be bad for memory. So you just get this constant violent rotation. And I call it like a knife fight in a phone booth, you know, for all these funds that have to run long, short portfolios. [00:28:10] S2: It's a nightmare. I'm glad you asked this because this is a question that I wanted to ask you. So it's like we look at the core weaves and there's this anxiety and we see all the volatility. We're seeing volatility everywhere except our measures of volatility. So if we look at realized volatility, it's pretty low. If we look at the VIX, it's not that high. Can you explain why it is that there's all this anxiety about certain parts of the most important trade in the entire world? And yet, when we actually look at the way we measure volatility, it looks very benign. [00:28:41] S1: Yeah, I've been asked, this is probably the most asked question that I get in some way, shape, or form. And there's two parts to the answer, right? There's a structural part. And then there's a really technical part. [00:28:53] S2: Yeah, let's hear it. [00:28:54] S0: All right.
00:28:54 · Tracy Alloway, Alex Altmann
[00:28:54] S0: All right. [00:28:54] S1: So the structural part has got to do with the fact with the way that money is deployed these days. So obviously, equities are meant to be a long-only product, really. But in this day and age, they're not. We've got 2020, the AUM deployed in multi-manager funds was about $ 300 billion. And today, it's in excess of a trillion dollars. And if you think about the leverage- This is the pod shop, seriously. [00:29:21] S0: Yeah. [00:29:21] S1: I mean, not, not just pods, but obviously let's just think about like that sort of ilk. [00:29:26] S0: Yeah.