00:20:38 · Joe Weisenthal, Alex Altmann, Tracy Alloway
[00:20:38] S2: I was actually, I was talking to someone when I was out in San Francisco recently, and I actually want to ask you about East and West Coast views on the technology, maybe. But I was talking to someone in San Francisco who had this term, he called it the frontier sink. And it's like, what are the industries that actually need PhD level and beyond technology? And there's a few that we could come up with pretty easily. One of them is probably biotech, right? You can probably never have too much intelligence when it comes to medicine. Another one actually is probably semiconductor design itself. You'll probably never be too smart, et cetera, for that. Maybe another one of them has to do with quant trading where you can never be too smart. I'm not sure. Who knows? But it actually does get to be hard to think about. There might just be a lot of industry for which there is a certain level of intelligence that is enough. [00:21:34] S1: I mean, for the moment, again, Do you remember when the, I like going back to the iPhone as an analogy, because it really was a technological revolution at the time. And do you remember when we thought like peak iPhone in 07, 08 was when you had that app, which had like the pint of beer in it. [00:21:51] S0: And you could drink it. [00:21:52] S2: I didn't, but no, everyone is like, Oh, this is so cool. You can pretend. I know exactly. [00:21:57] S0: Joe, you're allowed to take joy in small things. No, no. [00:22:01] S2: This looks like whimsy to me. I don't get this. Oh, yeah. [00:22:04] S0: Joe hates whimsy.
00:22:04 · Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal, Alex Altmann
[00:22:04] S0: Joe hates whimsy. [00:22:04] S2: I hate fun. But keep going. But I remember how, yo, why is everyone going crazy about the fact that you could, like, this is a very good point. Keep going. [00:22:11] S1: And so I just don't think we know what the future of AI really looks like. So, yes, you're right. Today, we probably say we just don't need more than 100 IQ persons sitting in our pocket, managing our emails, sending angry messages to the car rental company because they charged me $ 2, 000 for a ding. I do think the consumer layer AI is going to be, people ask me all the time, like, what will get you really constructive on AI again? I said, when we figure out that killer consumer application layer. Because at the end of the day, the consumer is everything. It's the economy. It's where, to the point about revenues, like enterprise revenues, I just don't think is going to plug that gap. Really? I just don't see how. [00:22:51] S2: Yeah, no, you're right. The numbers. I don't see.
00:22:51 · Joe Weisenthal, Alex Altmann, Tracy Alloway
[00:22:51] S2: Yeah, no, you're right. The numbers. I don't see. [00:22:53] S1: It can probably get there eventually, but it can't get there in the time frame that the market wants to see the ROI. And you need to bust into the consumer layer. And so back to the point about frontier, the consumer probably doesn't need frontier for the time being to do all of these things. And so my big mantra is that one of the best technological changes that we experience as humans is actually not necessarily some new advanced tech. It's changing the application of existing tech. And so it's very possible that we take the 100 IQ agentic workflow that still kind of becomes almost ubiquitous within the next 12 to 18 months. And we find really cool ways to use it. And I think that's probably where you're really going to get the next upswing in AI. [00:23:42] S2: Can I just say, by the way, Tracy, last several days, my wife was traveling out of town. My kids are at a very easy age. It's not a big challenge or anything to solo parent for a few days. But it happened to be a very busy schedule for them, birthday parties and a few other things. And it was very nice having ChatGPT being able to say, where should I be in the next hour? Where should I be in the hour? Because there were a lot of things going on. And it was very easy. It was very nice. [00:24:12] S0: I saw your tweet on this, Joe. [00:24:14] S2: No, you saw the tweet on the right. [00:24:15] S0: This is part of the problem. You tweet everything before you tell it to me, and so I can't react to it in real time.
00:24:15 · Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal, Alex Altmann
[00:24:15] S0: This is part of the problem. You tweet everything before you tell it to me, and so I can't react to it in real time. [00:24:20] S2: And now I'm really upset that you said that because you saw the tweet from my private alt. I did not tweet that from my main account. And now a bunch of people are going to know that I have an alt and they're going to ask me for it and you're not going to get it. So I wish you hadn't said that. Sorry. [00:24:33] S0: Sorry. I can't, I can't differentiate the two. [00:24:35] S1: Can I, can I, can I jump in? [00:24:36] S0: Yeah, of course. [00:24:37] S1: So what, what's that worth to you a month? What? Well, just to have that ability, let's just say almost like an account executive or something or like an administrator, you know, Because to answer that question, it matters. It matters for the revenue profile, right? [00:24:52] S0: I mean, also, if you just had the right user interface on a calendar, this would be solved too, wouldn't it? If you know you have to be somewhere at 3 p.m., 4 p.m., 5 p.m. There's a lot.
00:24:52 · Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal
[00:24:52] S0: I mean, also, if you just had the right user interface on a calendar, this would be solved too, wouldn't it? If you know you have to be somewhere at 3 p.m., 4 p.m., 5 p.m. There's a lot. [00:25:02] S2: Of things that are in so many different emails. So, for example, my daughter goes to– I take her to play rehearsals. And some days, it's from 1 to 6 in the afternoon on Sundays. But some days, they don't do the full cast for the five hours. So somewhere in the email, it says, oh, these students or these participants, they can leave at 3 and stuff. And it's scattered across so many emails. And I don't know which emails to read, which ones they're in. And so being able to say, Chad, it's Sunday, October 25th or whatever. What time am I supposed to pick up my daughter at 3 or 6? It's very easy and nice to have. [00:25:40] S0: Fair enough. I just want to go back to the beginning of the conversation. You talked about neoclouds as the sort of tip of the spear and maybe being in the beginning of the denial phase. What do you think would spook investors? What should we look out for next in terms of a degradation in the AI bull belief? [00:26:03] S2: That's a great question.
00:26:03 · Joe Weisenthal, Alex Altmann
[00:26:03] S2: That's a great question. [00:26:06] S1: Off the top of my head, I would say it would be some level of capex being reined in by one of the hyperscalers. In fact, on the walk over here, I was asked by one of my clients who was questioning whether that would actually even come up potentially in the results this week. And famous last words, it's probably still premature. Joe, to answer your question about West Coast, East Coast, if you think about West Coast, the further you are closer to the epicenter of this technology, I'm sorry, the closer you are to the epicenter, the more I would say that both the companies and investors are bought in. [00:26:44] S2: On that narrative. [00:26:46] S1: And there's definitely kind of almost like an echo chamber within that certain ecosystem. You think about the rooms that people are sitting in. So my suspicion is that it's not going to be these set of results. And that may be we have to wait till the new year that we get some kind of potential temperament of the enthusiasm. But Google kind of set this all off again for the next wave because on the CapEx side, it was actually the last set of results where they said it's going to be, I forget the exact wording they used, but they were talking about CapEx being significantly higher. And that got everyone enthused once again and got them all G'd up.