Relentless
00:38:47 · Brian Armstrong, Ty Morse
[00:38:47] S0: Some of the ones that I've thought about, like, there's a fundraising skill set. There's a storytelling skill set, which we started talking about at the beginning. There's a recruiting or slash sales skill set. And part of it is really just about good judgment about what people want in products, right? And we try lots of ideas, like not all of them work, but we try to get more right than wrong. And you kind of have to take inventory of, like, yeah, what are your skill sets and passions? What is the company uniquely able to do? What are the things it's not good at? And then you're kind of you're kind of like a surfer out there on the water, and you're looking for waves coming in, you know, and, oh, that's like a new technology trend is happening or this unlock happened or this thing's got cheaper. This law just got passed. And so you're kind of looking at the waves, and you you have to kind of spot a wave coming. You're like, oh, that's a good one. I'm gonna paddle for it. And, like, then you, like, really lean in and, you know, shoot your shot. There's times where I felt like we missed a wave like that, and we were chasing to catch up to it. And then we missed the full power of that wave, you know, just to torture the analogy [00:39:52] S1: Swimming of after a tsunami.
00:39:52 · Ty Morse, Brian Armstrong
[00:39:52] S1: Swimming of after a tsunami. [00:39:54] S0: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, that's... Every year, you're trying to make sure you try to... You have a couple of bets, and you're trying to catch a couple waves, and you're not gonna get all of them. Once And in a while, you get, like, a really great set, and it's just a good day. Other times, you get your ass handed to you. [00:40:10] S1: So I was thinking about this last night. Couldn't sleep at all before this interview. Basically, got, like, two hours of sleep between two and 4AM Wow. This morning. But at the same time that prediction markets are becoming a thing, we also have this proliferation of AI generated content. And I was finding it interesting that this seeker of truth, which is this new thing or this mechanism, is happening at the exact same time that the truth is becoming less and less obvious and less and less clear. How do you kind of think about prediction markets and AI generated content and that sort of thing?
00:40:41 · Brian Armstrong
[00:40:41] S0: Well, think there was this initial panic or fear about AI generated content and like, we wouldn't know anything was real. Argument always seemed like a little funny to me because if you grew up on the Internet, you're very used to seeing things that are not true. Like, yeah. I mean, or just bad takes on Reddit or whatever. So now I think it's kind of been like a total nothing burger. Like, see AI things and sometimes they're pretty funny and sometimes you know, they're really dumb. And sometimes you see something and, is that real? And then there's actually a community note or a bunch of discussion people saying, no, it's not. And... But this would... This is the thing that is real behind it. So I actually think it's, like, not as... Not only not only is it totally fine, it's actually, like, great. I think the world is more interesting because we are getting... Like, the barrier to do creative content has gone down, and so we see more satire. We see more things that are funny, whatever. Like... So I'm not worried about AI slop. I think, you know, I think that it's it's fine for our democracy and everything like that. And then it's interesting your tie into prediction markets. I mean, prediction markets are a really good signal of what is true in the world or going to be true. It's probably... I think it's much higher signal than, say, like traditional polling, which can be biased or certainly like mainstream media. So I do think prediction markets are... Have a positive externality in the world of just helping people try to get truth about, you know, is the the Strait Of Hormuz or whatever going be open in a month? That's an important thing for a lot of companies. So prediction markets create a lot of value for that. I actually think that in a strange way, AI agents might be useful to resolve prediction market contracts because if you set up a contract today, you have to put the resolution condition as typically like, okay. Of these three traditional media, you know, companies, if they... If if two or three of them or whatever report that this person won the baseball game versus this one, then it resolves. And there's a human being typically behind the scenes, like checking to see if that CNN published this thing.
00:42:39 · Brian Armstrong, Ty Morse
To me, that's less reliable than, say, you could say an AI agent, you could say, okay, between Gemini, Grok, and OpenAI, I'm going to ask on this date, at this time, I'm going to ask all three of these agents who won the baseball game respond with a single answer. And if at least two of three agree, that is the answer. And so an AI agent can actually have a preponderance of evidence across the whole Internet and resolve that, I think, more truthfully than one media organization, let's just say, in an extreme case. So anyway, I think there is some intersection there, but I'm glad AI agents are I think overall on bet... On net, like, AI agents are gonna help us establish truth a lot more in the world and so will prediction markets. [00:43:17] S1: I think it's just like, the next evolution of the Internet, and the Internet was really good at expanding truth. [00:43:22] S0: People forget you get, like, biased or untrue answers from... When you ask humans a lot too. Right? I mean, this is that kind of like we were talking earlier about simulating that person's brain in your brain. But when you go ask the person that question, like, they're bringing all kinds of biases, misinformation. They're like, oh, I want to seem like I know the answer to this even if I'm not 100% sure. So like, we all... We already live in a world where you have to, be a little skeptical. And so I think AI agents so far are, like, exceeding the the average human bar. So I think it's net positive.
00:43:22 · Brian Armstrong, Ty Morse
[00:43:22] S0: People forget you get, like, biased or untrue answers from... When you ask humans a lot too. Right? I mean, this is that kind of like we were talking earlier about simulating that person's brain in your brain. But when you go ask the person that question, like, they're bringing all kinds of biases, misinformation. They're like, oh, I want to seem like I know the answer to this even if I'm not 100% sure. So like, we all... We already live in a world where you have to, be a little skeptical. And so I think AI agents so far are, like, exceeding the the average human bar. So I think it's net positive. [00:43:53] S1: I think it's really easy to hold other things to a way higher standard than you hold yourself. Yeah. If you had to look at the way that you operate Coinbase today and then you looked at your actions versus maybe a set of your peers like Sam Altman or Brian Chesky or Joe Gebbia, someone else, would run their company, what do you think they'd be surprised by?
00:44:14 · Brian Armstrong
[00:44:14] S0: Well, there is a common set of tactics that I think many of us use. Right? It's like we'll run an exec meeting, and we do an off-site every quarter, and we try to typically use OKRs. And... But I think there are some differences. I'm trying to think, like, at Coinbase, the one that might surprise them the most. I mean, the most surprising thing has been some of these decisions that we made, right, about being apolitical in the workplace, like suing the SEC. I think most of those CEOs you mentioned probably wouldn't have done that unless... Maybe there's a situation where they would have, but it probably wouldn't have done that. Underduress. Yeah. You know, and I think those are all great CEOs, by the way. I... I've learned a lot from all of them. Like, Chesky had a great thing with his founder mode, right, that he put out, which I think articulated a lot of his philosophies. One thing we've, done as a result of that is we've started hosting twice a year product showcases, like to really package up everything we worked on and tell it to the world. So, yeah, I've learned a lot from each of those folks. And most of the things they would be saying are good practice to run the company, I would probably do as well.