AI and the Future of Work: Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace, Business, Ethics, HR, and IT for AI Enthusiasts, Leaders and Academics
00:38:25 · Rahul Vohra
Doesn't that mean we need fewer software engineers? And and hopefully, you can see the pattern here. This is exactly the same pattern of argument. Actually, it turns out you need way more software engineers because way more kinds of software are now more profitable. I had a really great conversation with a a not for profit founder the other day who is, building technology for for certain parts of Africa, and she was unable to do so profitably. Profit's the wrong word. She was unable to do so in a way that was sustainable before coding agents because it was just too expensive to afford to pay, everyone to do all the things. Whereas now she can create the software and hire the software engineers, and deliver it to market much more cheaply, thus enabling a whole new category of industry that didn't exist before. And in in this case, it's it's a really great not for profit story. So it turns out there's way more demand now for software engineers than there ever was before because there's so much more software to be written. And and by the way, when you have more software to be written, you have more security risks, more complexity. So there's more roles in cybersecurity and compliance and governance. I'm hearing the same thing in legal work, by the way. Folks have said, oh, aren't we gonna need far fewer lawyers now that you have Harvey and the Gora and and so many other of these these legal companies that are automating so much legal work? Well, turns out that when legal work becomes really easy, the demand for legal work increases. Like, a lot more cases, get brought. There's there's a lot more demand just to to do things, and so, case volume has massively exploded. I was talking to a lawyer whose firm has now like 10 x the case volume they used to have. And when you have 10 x the case volume, sure, AI is gonna do a whole bunch of that. But it turns out the set of stuff that you need humans to do also 10 x's. And so they're actually hiring more lawyers than ever before. And most surprising example of this that I came across was customer support hiring, which you you would have thought of all the things, surely that's where AI is gonna have the biggest impact on jobs. Well, it turns out customer support hiring has recently rebounded and is now growing 10 to 15% faster than other sectors, which I I think is is remarkable.
00:41:02 · Rahul Vohra, Dan Turchin
And it's it's exactly the the same phenomenon as as as everything I just described. Maybe I'll spell that one out just to make it more obvious. So it... What do companies do when when AI can handle, a lot of customer support? Well, one choice is you eliminate a lot of those roles, but you keep on delivering crappy customer support. Turns out that's not what most companies are choosing. What most companies are choosing is to invest in their customer support and making it amazing. And so you end up taking those people and asking them to do more complicated things, high level tasks, more difficult cases, and let's try and compete on the quality of support that we're delivering. So that's a that's a lot. But hopefully, explains why I am personally so bullish on the the magic of AI as a new technology for changing every aspect of how we work and who we are and and what the economy is and what America is and what it means to be a human. I'm not gonna pretend it's not gonna be without its challenges. And I I think that whenever there's any kind of transformative technology like this, there's a lot that that we need to work through as as a society, and and we wanna do our part to be responsible parts of that conversation. But I'm very excited about what's to come. [00:42:27] S1: Rahul, that is the most dense and articulate description of Jevons paradox that I have heard yet. So you get the gold medal. Nice... Nicely done. [00:42:38] S0: I think more people need to understand it. So so thank you for the the soapbox.
00:42:38 · Rahul Vohra, Dan Turchin
[00:42:38] S0: I think more people need to understand it. So so thank you for the the soapbox. [00:42:41] S1: Very well done. Very well done. You know, unbelievably, we're about out of time. I told you I'd get you out of here efficiently. But you're not going anywhere without answering one last important question for me. We're talking about AI and humanity and beyond email, beyond the inbox. One of the things I'd love to know from you is when Rahul and Dan are back here in a decade, it's 2036, and we're having a version of this conversation, what's one thing that you believe will be commonplace then that most people would disagree with sitting where we are today in 2026? [00:43:20] S0: Okay. To make sure I understand the question, what what will be... What do I think will be commonplace in ten years that most people would disagree with now? [00:43:27] S1: Yeah. Something contrarian Trarian. About what you think will be commonplace in 2036.
00:43:27 · Dan Turchin, Rahul Vohra
[00:43:27] S1: Yeah. Something contrarian Trarian. About what you think will be commonplace in 2036. [00:43:32] S0: Oh, boy. That's a really tough one. I think by definition, we are ill equipped to... Not by definition, but, like, it it... It's well observed that we are ill equipped to predict on the ten year time scale as opposed to the one or the two year time scale. I don't know. I think I just gave you a speech that is is basically so super hard to predict. Right? Like the, I I... Okay. Here's what I can predict. I think in many ways, the world that we will be living in will be unrecognizable compared to now for the better. That maybe I sound like a a techno optimist or or I I I sound almost utopian when I say that. But I I really do believe it, that, from advances in drug discovery through biotechnology, through productivity, to every aspect of knowledge work that you can imagine, to manufacturing and industrialization, the supply chain, food, drink, like, it... It's just all going to get so much better over a ten year period in a way that we can't imagine. That's... Maybe that's not contrarian. Maybe that's obvious. But that's certainly something I believe is true.
00:43:32 · Rahul Vohra, Dan Turchin
[00:43:32] S0: Oh, boy. That's a really tough one. I think by definition, we are ill equipped to... Not by definition, but, like, it it... It's well observed that we are ill equipped to predict on the ten year time scale as opposed to the one or the two year time scale. I don't know. I think I just gave you a speech that is is basically so super hard to predict. Right? Like the, I I... Okay. Here's what I can predict. I think in many ways, the world that we will be living in will be unrecognizable compared to now for the better. That maybe I sound like a a techno optimist or or I I I sound almost utopian when I say that. But I I really do believe it, that, from advances in drug discovery through biotechnology, through productivity, to every aspect of knowledge work that you can imagine, to manufacturing and industrialization, the supply chain, food, drink, like, it... It's just all going to get so much better over a ten year period in a way that we can't imagine. That's... Maybe that's not contrarian. Maybe that's obvious. But that's certainly something I believe is true. [00:44:57] S1: Where we sit today, it's still unsettling for all of the humans who thought that they nailed the right career in their, you know, maybe mid career or even more so early career. And right now, AI feels like a very destabilizing force. And they can hear you and I talk and be, you know, optimists about the future, and yet it's scary because it requires an investment in skills that we don't know what they are yet and industries that we don't know what they look like or they don't have a
00:44:57 · Dan Turchin, Rahul Vohra
[00:44:57] S1: Where we sit today, it's still unsettling for all of the humans who thought that they nailed the right career in their, you know, maybe mid career or even more so early career. And right now, AI feels like a very destabilizing force. And they can hear you and I talk and be, you know, optimists about the future, and yet it's scary because it requires an investment in skills that we don't know what they are yet and industries that we don't know what they look like or they don't have a [00:45:27] S0: name [00:45:27] S1: yet. What... What's your message to everyone who says, yeah. But, you know, here I am today, and I don't know what I'm gonna be doing between now and ten years. You're asking me to, you know, kind of just take a leap of faith. How do you how do you have those conversations, which I'm sure you have frequently?