00:09:30 · John Coogan, Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays
[00:09:30] S1: Yeah. [00:09:30] S0: What will be the productivity effects of AI? Mhmm. It's like, what were the productivity effects of the Internet? Yeah. It's hard to see. You don't see them on the charts. Yeah. Even though what were the productivity effects of the mobile phone? [00:09:39] S1: I I thought I did just see a chart in the Financial Times that showed product... Worker productivity in The United States was growing, and it was out outpacing other countries. Did you dig into that at all? [00:09:48] S0: I know. I haven't. Okay. [00:09:50] S2: But it was You could attribute it you could attribute it to layoffs. Right? [00:09:53] S0: Right. And there... Yeah. So there's, like, a... Yeah. Like, that's probably what it is because, ultimately, like, The US allowed a bunch of people to get laid off and replace... Substituted them with checks. Oh, it would your productivity Sure. [00:10:07] S1: Sure. Sure. Sure. [00:10:08] S0: Also The US is... So that probably started the divergence. Yeah. And then The US economy has just been much stronger than Yeah. Europe's... For the last several years. It's hard for me to imagine there's a big AI difference. But [00:10:21] S1: Sure. Sure. Sure. Yeah. I mean, in general, are you still feeling that the American consumer is undefeated? It feels like there's all this chaos in the market. There's there's a lot of fragility where it's like, oh, if this doesn't go perfectly, it could be bad. But all of that is basically just froth while
00:10:21 · John Coogan, Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays
[00:10:21] S1: Sure. Sure. Sure. Yeah. I mean, in general, are you still feeling that the American consumer is undefeated? It feels like there's all this chaos in the market. There's there's a lot of fragility where it's like, oh, if this doesn't go perfectly, it could be bad. But all of that is basically just froth while [00:10:37] S0: the Americans are in this bubble in New York City. And if you're walking around New York City, you cannot fathom right now that, like, there's some slowdown in [00:10:45] S1: the situation. Waiting line down the block for saying. [00:10:48] S2: I think $40, $7.30 for sandwiches. [00:10:50] S0: Yeah. No. New York feels absolutely... You know, everyone's like, I can't get a dinner table. No. [00:10:55] S2: I see. We see this in LA where there's people who agents. You'll have it'll be like Monday at 10AM, and people will be lines around the block for a record store. [00:11:04] S0: Yeah. You know, I'm like, where where If you're walking around New York City, you could never be convinced that there is a consumer slowdown. I do say that for the... And even like when you listen to corporate executives speak, it's a little bit ambiguous because I've been hearing what we've noticed the consumer is starting to get a little bit more discriminating in their purchasing. I've been hearing that since 2022. [00:11:23] S1: Yep. [00:11:23] S0: So it's like for every year. So we noticed that the consumer is starting to trade down a little bit. Yeah. I don't know. I've seen some back and forth of that. It still feels like there's a lot of spending.
00:11:23 · Joe Weisenthal, John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Ryan Serhant
[00:11:23] S0: So it's like for every year. So we noticed that the consumer is starting to trade down a little bit. Yeah. I don't know. I've seen some back and forth of that. It still feels like there's a lot of spending. [00:11:33] S1: Yeah. And this [00:11:34] S0: economy from every sector... This is the most important thing right now, actually, which is that, you know, you can can divide the economy into roughly three sectors. Mhmm. There's the household sector, the business sector, and the government sector. [00:11:45] S1: Mhmm. And and the gambling sector for [00:11:47] S0: the What are the games like [00:11:48] S1: because that's a huge part [00:11:49] S2: of [00:11:49] S0: our I think that's it. I secret. [00:11:52] S2: I did see a ad on on the way here that just said, predict big. Predict big. Just predict. Was like... To predict, bro. Predict. Trade. [00:12:00] S0: To predict. I just predict. [00:12:02] S3: What do you do? [00:12:04] S2: Really see that big. [00:12:05] S1: Yeah. No. [00:12:05] S2: Predict big. [00:12:06] S0: But every one of them is spending. This is [00:12:09] S1: key thing. [00:12:09] S0: Yeah. Households are spending. They're going... They're either, like, selling based... If they're on the top part of the k, they're, like Yeah. Selling based on their equity accumulation. If they're on the lower side of the k, they're like Yeah. Going deeper into consumer credit. Yeah. Businesses are spending either from the AI build out or just, like, spending on AI. Yeah. And the government is spending on all people.
00:12:09 · Joe Weisenthal, John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:12:09] S0: Yeah. Households are spending. They're going... They're either, like, selling based... If they're on the top part of the k, they're, like Yeah. Selling based on their equity accumulation. If they're on the lower side of the k, they're like Yeah. Going deeper into consumer credit. Yeah. Businesses are spending either from the AI build out or just, like, spending on AI. Yeah. And the government is spending on all people. [00:12:29] S1: Although, you see Torsten, Slok over at Apollo say latest? His latest is that, basically, Fortune 500 having a little bit of indigestion around AI spend outside of the Mag seven. Mag seven is seeing positive ROI. If you're a tech company, you can immediately deploy the AI agents, improve your software, see an ROI. But if you're the... You know, you're in the s and p 500, but you make tires or you do forestry or you do oil and gas, a lot harder to actually improve revenue or actually replace a job it [00:13:00] S2: lot of... I think my my stance on this is, for this for the overall trade to work, you have to have a massive capabilities jump. Like, soon. Like, in q four of last year, everyone everyone everyone was like, woah. It doesn't seem like chatbots are [00:13:18] S0: 4.5. Yeah.
00:13:18 · Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:13:18] S0: 4.5. Yeah. [00:13:20] S2: Code and all this. And then you agents. And it's like we we... The the trade right now requires that. Like, Elon Elon's saying, like, yeah. Like, you have some deceleration, you know, like, Anthropic q three, you see a little bit of deceleration. It's still growing tremendously. And and Elon is saying, like, you know, basically, all the SpaceX projections are, like, just focus on supply, right, which is, like, we're gonna bring on insane amount. Don't worry about demand. We're bringing on insane amount [00:13:48] S1: of supply. [00:13:49] S2: Right? And and that could prove to be an amazing decision. Right? Yeah. But we need that capability Yeah. Like, fast. [00:13:59] S1: Yeah. Right now, there's no one outside of an engineer that can go to their boss and say, I wanna spend $10,000 [00:14:05] S2: a month on AI. [00:14:05] S0: Yeah. Pretty hard if you're See, this is in marketing. My colleague at Bloomberg today, Todd Gillespie, has had a good thing. Goldman is clamping down on its nontechnical employees Yep. Like five coding, [00:14:17] S1: including its traders Yep. [00:14:18] S0: Which I thought was pretty telling. Yeah. And and it said it was for both risk and productivity. So if was just risk, you know, I know there are some issues with people... There's still anxiety about data sharing and stuff like that or data retention or whatever. But it's also about the productivity. Yeah. So it's like maybe not every trader needs to be five coding [00:14:36] S1: up their own dashboards and stuff. Dashboards and stuff
00:14:36 · John Coogan, Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays
[00:14:36] S1: up their own dashboards and stuff. Dashboards and stuff [00:14:39] S0: like that. Yeah. I thought that was a telling story that speaks to the tourist and [00:14:43] S1: not Yeah. Yeah. There's something about an engineer who's actually seen what a month of engineering work [00:14:48] S0: Oh, [00:14:48] S1: yeah. And how hard that is, and they're maybe a little bit more judicious with the [00:14:52] S2: Yeah. The thing [00:14:52] S0: is, like, as we know, like, I'm a very big believer in what some economists... And I wish I could cite the person who like first either wrote the name, but like they call it the messy jobs thesis. [00:15:02] S1: Yeah. [00:15:02] S0: We all have like, you know, within a job, we have like 30 tasks, And so forth. And so you could say, well, like, AI is really good at this task, but it's not really a replacement for someone's job. [00:15:14] S1: Yeah. Totally. [00:15:15] S0: Except maybe if you're just producing lots of code, then maybe your job isn't so messy. [00:15:20] S1: There are some jobs that work a lot like repeat tasks. [00:15:22] S0: Yeah. And so... Yeah.