00:07:25 · John Coogan, Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays, Ryan Serhant
[00:07:25] S1: 100%. What what do you think of the four d chess that the tech the tech community is secretly behind the blue wave because they overbuilt AI compute. They want to create bans on compute development so that that reduces supply. They can drive up prices, earn more margin in the short term. [00:07:45] S0: I like this take. [00:07:46] S1: Yeah. Because there's a lot of supply coming online. [00:07:48] S0: This is the... Is this is a good take. [00:07:51] S2: Okay. No. [00:07:52] S0: I like this. Because it gets to one of the things I've been thinking about, which is like, okay. Let... And because [00:07:57] S2: It's actually might be five d. Know? Don't... Might be in the fifth dimension. [00:08:02] S0: People talk about the AI [00:08:03] S1: trade Yes. Yes. [00:08:04] S0: On Wall Street. Yes. And the thing that I don't totally understand is, like, well, there's no consensus on who act... Yet, on who actually makes money. Let's just say, it's like everything goes well. [00:08:14] S1: Sure. Yeah. Yeah. [00:08:15] S0: It all goes well. It's great [00:08:16] S1: for the economy. [00:08:16] S0: Yeah. I would still say that not obvious consensus on, like, who the moneymakers are in that scenario. Sure. Whether it's the lab companies [00:08:23] S1: Oh, sure. Sure. Sure. Chip companies. Now, there's even a... Yeah. Diffusion, like, the Microsoft plus Palantir versus OpenAI plus Anthropic. [00:08:30] S0: Like... Why is it just gonna be, like, the chip makers? Yep. Is it gonna be everyone else or the rest the economy? [00:08:34] S3: Yeah. Yeah.
00:08:34 · Ryan Serhant, John Coogan, Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays
[00:08:34] S3: Yeah. Yeah. [00:08:35] S1: It doesn't commoditize the top level. Yeah. [00:08:37] S0: Totally. Ambiguity on this question. [00:08:39] S1: Yes. Yeah. [00:08:39] S0: So, like, it certainly seems to me... I love I think where [00:08:43] S1: the bottleneck grows. They wanna create bottlenecks, so they are funding data center bands Yeah. [00:08:47] S0: Yeah. To [00:08:48] S1: create more bottlenecks so they can trade Yeah. [00:08:50] S0: Is No. This is because it's like... No. No. Like, we wanna be the winners again. [00:08:53] S1: Exactly. Yeah. [00:08:54] S2: The bottom But I think but I think AI going well to some people just means, like, 20% GDP growth. Right? Like, that's actually like that's actually No. But but, like, there was there was a survey at at a company that that I won't I won't [00:09:06] S1: Was that... Well, yeah. [00:09:07] S2: I think it was Anthropic. [00:09:08] S1: It Anthropic, but I thought [00:09:09] S2: I thought you they thought the average [00:09:11] S1: were really high, but then the average American was really high too. [00:09:14] S2: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Everyone is expecting, like Except economist. [00:09:16] S1: Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. That was the funny thing. [00:09:18] S0: The economists are like, oh, yeah. I could really drive a huge productivity boom. We might get up to three and half percent. [00:09:23] S1: Three and a percent. I do. [00:09:24] S0: But this is... But, you know, we joke about it. [00:09:26] S1: Yeah. Yeah. [00:09:27] S0: But we all should have... I mean, when... Anytime this comes up [00:09:30] S1: Yeah.
00:09:30 · John Coogan, Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays
[00:09:30] S1: Yeah. [00:09:30] S0: What will be the productivity effects of AI? Mhmm. It's like, what were the productivity effects of the Internet? Yeah. It's hard to see. You don't see them on the charts. Yeah. Even though what were the productivity effects of the mobile phone? [00:09:39] S1: I I thought I did just see a chart in the Financial Times that showed product... Worker productivity in The United States was growing, and it was out outpacing other countries. Did you dig into that at all? [00:09:48] S0: I know. I haven't. Okay. [00:09:50] S2: But it was You could attribute it you could attribute it to layoffs. Right? [00:09:53] S0: Right. And there... Yeah. So there's, like, a... Yeah. Like, that's probably what it is because, ultimately, like, The US allowed a bunch of people to get laid off and replace... Substituted them with checks. Oh, it would your productivity Sure. [00:10:07] S1: Sure. Sure. Sure. [00:10:08] S0: Also The US is... So that probably started the divergence. Yeah. And then The US economy has just been much stronger than Yeah. Europe's... For the last several years. It's hard for me to imagine there's a big AI difference. But [00:10:21] S1: Sure. Sure. Sure. Yeah. I mean, in general, are you still feeling that the American consumer is undefeated? It feels like there's all this chaos in the market. There's there's a lot of fragility where it's like, oh, if this doesn't go perfectly, it could be bad. But all of that is basically just froth while
00:10:21 · John Coogan, Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays
[00:10:21] S1: Sure. Sure. Sure. Yeah. I mean, in general, are you still feeling that the American consumer is undefeated? It feels like there's all this chaos in the market. There's there's a lot of fragility where it's like, oh, if this doesn't go perfectly, it could be bad. But all of that is basically just froth while [00:10:37] S0: the Americans are in this bubble in New York City. And if you're walking around New York City, you cannot fathom right now that, like, there's some slowdown in [00:10:45] S1: the situation. Waiting line down the block for saying. [00:10:48] S2: I think $40, $7.30 for sandwiches. [00:10:50] S0: Yeah. No. New York feels absolutely... You know, everyone's like, I can't get a dinner table. No. [00:10:55] S2: I see. We see this in LA where there's people who agents. You'll have it'll be like Monday at 10AM, and people will be lines around the block for a record store. [00:11:04] S0: Yeah. You know, I'm like, where where If you're walking around New York City, you could never be convinced that there is a consumer slowdown. I do say that for the... And even like when you listen to corporate executives speak, it's a little bit ambiguous because I've been hearing what we've noticed the consumer is starting to get a little bit more discriminating in their purchasing. I've been hearing that since 2022. [00:11:23] S1: Yep. [00:11:23] S0: So it's like for every year. So we noticed that the consumer is starting to trade down a little bit. Yeah. I don't know. I've seen some back and forth of that. It still feels like there's a lot of spending.
00:11:23 · Joe Weisenthal, John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Ryan Serhant
[00:11:23] S0: So it's like for every year. So we noticed that the consumer is starting to trade down a little bit. Yeah. I don't know. I've seen some back and forth of that. It still feels like there's a lot of spending. [00:11:33] S1: Yeah. And this [00:11:34] S0: economy from every sector... This is the most important thing right now, actually, which is that, you know, you can can divide the economy into roughly three sectors. Mhmm. There's the household sector, the business sector, and the government sector. [00:11:45] S1: Mhmm. And and the gambling sector for [00:11:47] S0: the What are the games like [00:11:48] S1: because that's a huge part [00:11:49] S2: of [00:11:49] S0: our I think that's it. I secret. [00:11:52] S2: I did see a ad on on the way here that just said, predict big. Predict big. Just predict. Was like... To predict, bro. Predict. Trade. [00:12:00] S0: To predict. I just predict. [00:12:02] S3: What do you do? [00:12:04] S2: Really see that big. [00:12:05] S1: Yeah. No. [00:12:05] S2: Predict big. [00:12:06] S0: But every one of them is spending. This is [00:12:09] S1: key thing. [00:12:09] S0: Yeah. Households are spending. They're going... They're either, like, selling based... If they're on the top part of the k, they're, like Yeah. Selling based on their equity accumulation. If they're on the lower side of the k, they're like Yeah. Going deeper into consumer credit. Yeah. Businesses are spending either from the AI build out or just, like, spending on AI. Yeah. And the government is spending on all people.
00:12:09 · Joe Weisenthal, John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:12:09] S0: Yeah. Households are spending. They're going... They're either, like, selling based... If they're on the top part of the k, they're, like Yeah. Selling based on their equity accumulation. If they're on the lower side of the k, they're like Yeah. Going deeper into consumer credit. Yeah. Businesses are spending either from the AI build out or just, like, spending on AI. Yeah. And the government is spending on all people. [00:12:29] S1: Although, you see Torsten, Slok over at Apollo say latest? His latest is that, basically, Fortune 500 having a little bit of indigestion around AI spend outside of the Mag seven. Mag seven is seeing positive ROI. If you're a tech company, you can immediately deploy the AI agents, improve your software, see an ROI. But if you're the... You know, you're in the s and p 500, but you make tires or you do forestry or you do oil and gas, a lot harder to actually improve revenue or actually replace a job it [00:13:00] S2: lot of... I think my my stance on this is, for this for the overall trade to work, you have to have a massive capabilities jump. Like, soon. Like, in q four of last year, everyone everyone everyone was like, woah. It doesn't seem like chatbots are [00:13:18] S0: 4.5. Yeah.