00:57:08 · John Coogan, Ryan Serhant, Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays
[00:57:08] S1: Aesthetically No. They're choice? [00:57:10] S3: Or No. They just... They can't afford to move. [00:57:12] S1: Okay. Okay. Because of taxes and mortgage rate blocking [00:57:15] S3: If they own in cash Yeah. Or if they refinance during COVID Sure. Because there was a mass refinance movement. [00:57:22] S1: At three percent. [00:57:23] S0: Yeah. Yep. [00:57:23] S3: You know, 80% of anyone who has a loan is under 4%. Yep. So we're gonna go. Yeah. [00:57:28] S2: Yeah. [00:57:28] S3: And you're gonna move in with your kids so that you could free... To to do what? [00:57:31] S1: To do what? Yeah. [00:57:32] S3: To do what? To To just stay. And the capital gains tax exclusion has not been updated since the nineties. Yeah. And so married and filing jointly, you can write off $500,000 of gain used to mean a lot, you know, when the average home sale was 269,000. Yep. Today, it's almost almost like we're gonna see the median home price in The United States hit $500,000 very soon. [00:57:55] S2: Yeah. [00:57:55] S3: And that is not in pace with wage growth. Yeah. And it's like so so something eventually has to has to has to give.
00:57:55 · Ryan Serhant, Jordi Hays
[00:57:55] S3: And that is not in pace with wage growth. Yeah. And it's like so so something eventually has to has to has to give. [00:58:04] S2: Yeah. Rates will just have to are your predictions for, how AI money is gonna flow? We have the SpaceX IPO. We have an Anthropic IPO coming up. There's more in the future. We know how VCs will spend their money. Right? You know, the the Aspen or Montana, the the the jet markets. A lot of people generating a meaningful amount of wealth that don't seem to spend the way that other, like, Wall Street spends like they... They're they're willing to pay, like, three times over for a house in San Francisco. Yeah. But, like, where where else is is that gonna flow outside of, like, the... Just the stock market? Wyoming, Nevada Mhmm.
00:58:41 · Ryan Serhant, John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:58:41] S3: Arizona. Our market in Arizona, we operate throughout Phoenix. Scottsdale is the strongest I've ever ever ever seen it. The the the mountains of North Carolina and South Carolina are incredibly strong. Obviously, a significant amount of Florida, but it's wild. Like, we're we're working with people who are under the age of 35, who have a one bedroom rental that they've been in for a long, long, long time, and their budget for their first time home purchase is somewhere between 30 and $40,000,000. And you're having you're having life conversations with these clients more than you're having purchase conversations. It used to be when I had somebody like that. I'm dealing with the... A king or queen of the universe. Sure. And this is their empteenth purchase. Yep. But now we're having conversations about what it means to be a first time home buyer. Your your budget's $35,000,000. You still have to pay utilities. You're still gonna have to get your Internet. You know, we're gonna figure things out as we go. And a lot of people are... They're just... They're scared. They're waiting. The sellers, on the other hand, Anthropic took 330 Hudson over here as their New York space. OpenAI is in market for even more space right now. Every other company. So every seller is saying, let's wait. Let's just wait. I'm not reducing my price. [00:59:52] S1: I want the IPOs. [00:59:53] S2: I'm gonna I'm gonna hold
00:59:53 · Jordi Hays, Ryan Serhant, John Coogan
[00:59:53] S2: I'm gonna I'm gonna hold [00:59:53] S3: out because that money is coming right to my apartment. Like, are you sure? Yeah. Yeah. Have you talked to anybody there? I was I was here when Uber went public years and years and years ago, and everyone was waiting on those initial, you know Oh, that's [01:00:05] S2: in that's in the New York market specifically. Every... That was everywhere. It was everywhere. And some of the places you listed, I'm so I'm so surprised. So you said Nevada, Arizona, The Carolinas Yep. Wyoming. What they're gonna do is they're buy anyone... I I don't know anyone in San Francisco that's like, the second I get this liquidity, I'm [01:00:23] S3: going But to but but But they're also buying their parents' homes [01:00:27] S1: Sure. [01:00:27] S3: Buying their mortgage down. Yeah. And so you're gonna see a a lot of prepayments. [01:00:31] S1: Sure. [01:00:31] S3: Yeah. So you see a lot of that. You see a lot of student debt being paid down. You see a lot of investment. Yeah. Yeah. You know, they have their house. What are they gonna do with a 100,000 square foot palace? Wait. [01:00:42] S1: Go go back to Uber really quickly. Like, what was the expectation? What... How did it actually plan? [01:00:46] S3: The expectation was that a significant amount of liquidity after the lockup period was ended was going to move not even just into New York, but between Bay Area and here right into property. But a lot of those people were buying on loans based on RSUs anyway. [01:00:59] S1: Oh, so they're already in market.
01:00:59 · John Coogan, Ryan Serhant
[01:00:59] S1: Oh, so they're already in market. [01:01:00] S3: Yeah. Uber pre IPO had a stock buyback program for their employees for like two years. Yeah. You know, they were paying them hundreds of thousand dollars a month just [01:01:09] S1: to then also buy back the private banks are happy to agree to mortgage against our [01:01:13] S3: good old fashioned Silicon Valley Bank. Old school Old school banks were saying, hey, we'll we'll lend. We'll give you 50%, you know, loan to value against your RSUs as long as you can get sign off. Yeah. [01:01:26] S1: And a lot of companies are happy with that because, like, it's no cash cost to them, but their employees are happier and have bigger [01:01:31] S3: It's not gonna be a trickle down, though. It's going to be a mass influx into the luxury marketplace. Yeah. And we've seen it happen Sure. In every penthouse, every major townhouse Yeah. A lot of these exits between New York, especially Florida, and up and down the coast in California. Yeah. And then some international money too. We've been doing more referral deals to Paris, to Portugal. We've... We're... We've we've done... I've done more ranch land grabs across the West. Montana, Wyoming, Utah, have been big big markets. Crazy. Learning so much.
01:01:31 · Ryan Serhant, Jordi Hays, Joe Weisenthal
[01:01:31] S3: It's not gonna be a trickle down, though. It's going to be a mass influx into the luxury marketplace. Yeah. And we've seen it happen Sure. In every penthouse, every major townhouse Yeah. A lot of these exits between New York, especially Florida, and up and down the coast in California. Yeah. And then some international money too. We've been doing more referral deals to Paris, to Portugal. We've... We're... We've we've done... I've done more ranch land grabs across the West. Montana, Wyoming, Utah, have been big big markets. Crazy. Learning so much. [01:02:04] S2: I'm assuming you don't spend too much time thinking about this because you have a lot of stuff to do in the present. But how much do you speculate or think about long term impact of self driving? Oh, I think about a lot. VTOL. Like, I I think about all these areas where... And then and then also, like, technology impact on just, the building process. Like, I was talking to a city council candidate last week, and he was like... One of his big things is, you should be able to submit your plans to the city's website and instantly understand if you're if you're violating codes or not. Yep. So there... So to to speed up. And I I thought that was cool that he at least, like, believes that there's [01:02:40] S0: a You'll