00:02:06 · Joe Weisenthal, John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:02:06] S0: a So little no one is calling into the election saying, I'm into data. [00:02:09] S1: Okay. Okay. [00:02:10] S0: But some people might actually believe in things like progress and development and technology and stuff like that. Know, obviously, so much of the tech world, so much of the manufacturing world, etcetera, sort of sees Texas as the future. Probably deep down Abbott does himself, but he's been playing it down. But, you know, up until a few weeks ago, the assumption was that it was a lock. It's Texas. Maybe, you know, the senate race has been competitive for a while, and now the democrat, James Talarico, heavily favored. But, like, no. But the but the Republican senate nominee, most people perceive him to be, like, a deeply flawed candidate, like, probably the least competitive Republican they could have picked. Yeah. Abbott is Abbott, though. He's just like a regular Texas Republican for a long time. But it's gonna... Like, now everyone thinks it's gonna be close. There was actually a poll last night that came out that had Hinojosa, his competitor, up one. Mhmm. He's down to about 60% in the betting market, so that rounds to 50% in my book. [00:03:06] S1: Yeah. Yeah. So, like, the the... [00:03:08] S0: I thought they built a [00:03:09] S2: crystal ball. The... In Brazil, it was 80%, [00:03:11] S0: and then and then it traded... [00:03:12] S1: So what's going on with prediction markets? [00:03:15] S0: Here's my take. Yeah. Look. I still basically trust markets. Like, I'm at core [00:03:20] S1: You do?
00:03:20 · John Coogan, Joe Weisenthal
[00:03:20] S1: You do? [00:03:20] S0: Yeah. Okay. Including prediction markets. [00:03:22] S1: Okay. [00:03:22] S0: Like, I doubt any of us know more than what people bet. Like, the collective wisdom. That whole thing, the the collective wisdom Yeah. Market. Yeah. I basically believe in that. [00:03:31] S1: Okay. So when you see... Wait. Wait. When you see a 20% to 80% upset Yeah. You think, yeah, this should happen one every five times. [00:03:40] S0: Yeah. I mean, I was pretty surprised. Like, this is what I think. This is what I think. Yeah. Markets are really good conventional wisdom distillers, and that's actually very valuable. In other words, people will say that as a snare. They're like, oh, this is just this is just conventional wisdom. [00:03:55] S1: Yeah. [00:03:55] S0: Yeah. And I'm like, no, that's actually really good. Because if we say like... It's priced in. Yeah. Because this is a useful thing to have. There's like a meaningful difference between like 55. So we say, oh, this candidate A is favored over candidate B, right? Well, is it 55% or is it 80%? [00:04:09] S1: Yeah, yeah. [00:04:10] S0: Now we actually have a number that we can put on it. And so it's like, oh, what is that conventional wisdom? So I think it's pretty useful. I, by and large, think it's like hard for most people to confidently look at any market and say, like, no. This is wrong. So when a market has a Democrat win... At a 40% chance of winning Texas, my view is, like, you gotta take that serious. [00:04:30] S1: You gotta take that seriously.
00:04:30 · John Coogan, Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays
[00:04:30] S1: You gotta take that seriously. [00:04:30] S0: Like, I don't know. That's all I'm saying. Yeah. That's all [00:04:32] S2: I think. [00:04:33] S0: It's, like, it's very unlikely. [00:04:35] S1: Yeah. [00:04:35] S0: Yeah. A lot of people are serious about York? [00:04:38] S1: Is this an important election? [00:04:40] S0: No. I don't think so. [00:04:41] S1: It's less important. [00:04:42] S0: I don't think Okay. There are some people a couple weeks ago who are, like, trying to make the the attorney general's race a thing. [00:04:49] S1: Thing, but no. [00:04:49] S0: It's it's... I don't think so. [00:04:50] S1: But it's but it's not the major swing. [00:04:52] S0: Okay. It would might be interesting to see there's... There's been this talk because, you know, it's a heavily Democratic state. It will remain so. Maybe, like, one possibility is that Democrats have a huge year Mhmm. Nationally... Or sorry, a huge night nationally, but that, like, some of the incumbent Democrats of the North do a little bit worse than their brethren, like, sort of, like, anti incumbent bias that hurts them. I would be very shocked if anyone's talking about New York Stock Because because I just saw... I just [00:05:20] S2: I just know. [00:05:21] S0: Just for
00:05:21 · Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:05:21] S0: Just for [00:05:21] S2: the election because I just saw something before we got live, which is that, apparently, there's, like, electrical outages in some... In Maricopa County in Arizona. Yeah. Didn't have a chance something. I didn't have a I didn't have a chance to to Yeah. My gig again. But that that feels like... And and we were on the flight yesterday. We spoke with a buddy who's in the the legacy media world, and he was coming out for the election, and he's, like, expecting this to be, like, all week, basically. Like, he doesn't have his his he doesn't have his return flight yet. Interesting. [00:05:51] S0: So if it's like... Alright. Like, there's two kinds of peak chaos, I guess. One is apparently there's a big storm coming up in the heart of the country. Have you guys seen the weather? Yeah. So, like, maybe that'll, like, in a depressed election day. [00:06:02] S1: Oh, okay. Yeah. You don't want go guys. [00:06:04] S0: People I know are, like, looking at the weather. Okay. It's like, oh, democrats. [00:06:07] S2: Who do you think is behind the storm? Data center. Which sides? So who... So what sides? [00:06:16] S0: You guys must have had some of these, We gotta ask. Guys must have had some, like, weather startup guy. Like, those clouds. Yeah. We've had about [00:06:25] S1: a bunch. Yeah. [00:06:25] S0: Yeah. I know. It's so funny because it's like, no one really controls the weather. It's like, well, what about those guys you had on the Yeah. [00:06:30] S1: Yeah. Literally, you're literally That's his entire pitch.
00:06:30 · John Coogan, Joe Weisenthal, Ryan Serhant, Jordi Hays
[00:06:30] S1: Yeah. Literally, you're literally That's his entire pitch. [00:06:33] S0: You know what I think could be just, a very crazy outcome Yeah. Tomorrow. So, like, you know, the there's some questions about the senate and who's gonna take the [00:06:40] S1: senate. Sure. [00:06:41] S0: Number of competitive races could swing Democratic. The one interesting one is that in Michigan, you know, there's the far left candidate or the left candidate, Abdul El-Sayed. [00:06:52] S3: Yeah. [00:06:53] S0: Think it would be a very funny outcome from a sort of, like, chaos, like, just going absolutely insane online Mhmm. If he ends up being the only competitive Democrat that wins. [00:07:05] S1: So it's [00:07:06] S0: like, oh, okay. Yeah. Yeah. In Kansas or Iowa and all these other But they lose the one [00:07:11] S1: that never loses their mind. [00:07:12] S0: Yeah. If that that... Like, I'm just thinking, what would get, like, people, like, the most insane [00:07:16] S2: you know, [00:07:17] S0: we live for fighting on Twitter. [00:07:18] S1: For sure. For sure. [00:07:19] S0: And this is, we wake up for to see people arguing out. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. If that were the final outcome, like, you would have people just absolutely lose their mind. Yeah. [00:07:25] S1: 100%. What what do you think of the four d chess that the tech the tech community is secretly behind the blue wave because they overbuilt AI compute. They want to create bans on compute development so that that reduces supply. They can drive up prices, earn more margin in the short term.
00:07:25 · John Coogan, Joe Weisenthal, Jordi Hays, Ryan Serhant
[00:07:25] S1: 100%. What what do you think of the four d chess that the tech the tech community is secretly behind the blue wave because they overbuilt AI compute. They want to create bans on compute development so that that reduces supply. They can drive up prices, earn more margin in the short term. [00:07:45] S0: I like this take. [00:07:46] S1: Yeah. Because there's a lot of supply coming online. [00:07:48] S0: This is the... Is this is a good take. [00:07:51] S2: Okay. No. [00:07:52] S0: I like this. Because it gets to one of the things I've been thinking about, which is like, okay. Let... And because [00:07:57] S2: It's actually might be five d. Know? Don't... Might be in the fifth dimension. [00:08:02] S0: People talk about the AI [00:08:03] S1: trade Yes. Yes. [00:08:04] S0: On Wall Street. Yes. And the thing that I don't totally understand is, like, well, there's no consensus on who act... Yet, on who actually makes money. Let's just say, it's like everything goes well. [00:08:14] S1: Sure. Yeah. Yeah. [00:08:15] S0: It all goes well. It's great [00:08:16] S1: for the economy. [00:08:16] S0: Yeah. I would still say that not obvious consensus on, like, who the moneymakers are in that scenario. Sure. Whether it's the lab companies [00:08:23] S1: Oh, sure. Sure. Sure. Chip companies. Now, there's even a... Yeah. Diffusion, like, the Microsoft plus Palantir versus OpenAI plus Anthropic. [00:08:30] S0: Like... Why is it just gonna be, like, the chip makers? Yep. Is it gonna be everyone else or the rest the economy? [00:08:34] S3: Yeah. Yeah.