Prof G Markets
00:20:33 · Dan Chiolan
[00:20:33] S4: Yeah. So I think we can start with Tesla. And to understand Tesla's autonomous business, you really have to split it into two. So the first is the consumer side, and that's FSD. That's the software that Tesla sells directly to Tesla owners, which allows Tesla drivers to have the car drive itself under supervision. Currently, about 1,700,000 people globally pay for it. But then there's the other side of their autonomous business, which is their Robotaxi business, which is their autonomous rideshare business that's in direct competition with Waymo and other players here in America. So here, they're doing well. They're scaling very quickly. They have a fully commercial service in six cities. And just last month, they started putting cybercabs on the road, which are their purpose built autonomous vehicles with no steering wheel. So despite the fact that they are they are moving very quickly, they're they're very clearly in second place to Waymo. Currently, Waymo does about seven times the amount of miles that Tesla does weekly. They're in 15 American cities. They're doing 500,000 paid rides weekly. So they're they're very far in the lead. I think there are two others worth mentioning. The first is Zoox, which is owned by Amazon. It's their self driving startup. They're currently in two American cities, and they have about a 100 vehicles on the road, so they're pretty they're pretty early stage. And then the last one is Uber, which actually doesn't have any vehicles or technology on its own. But through partnerships with other autonomous vehicle companies like like Zoox, like Waymo, it's able to facilitate autonomous rides in five American cities currently.
00:22:09 · Ed Elson, Dan Chiolan
[00:22:09] S5: I'm surprised to hear you say that the Tesla rollout has been quick because you say those number... Those Waymo numbers, which are phenomenal compared to Tesla. I guess what has been promising about the Tesla rollout of their robotaxi, specifically in contrast to Waymo, which on the outside, it seems like Waymo has been a lot more successful. [00:22:34] S4: Yeah. So I think the thing that that Tesla has really done well in these past few months is scale up very quickly. For a while, sort of in typical Elon Musk fashion, we were getting promises about an autonomous service rolling out in Austin and California. When in reality, you'd call a Tesla robotaxi, and there'd actually be a human safety monitor behind the In the past couple months, they've they've ditched the safety monitors in six cities. Like I said, they're they're fully commercial, fully autonomous. But the biggest advantage that Tesla has over Waymo is cost. So those Tesla Cybercabs cost about $25,000 to produce, whereas Waymo's cost upward of a $100,000. They have a a sort of much more thorough sensor load in the vehicles that they produce, which makes them more expensive. It makes them harder to build and take longer to build. So so Tesla has really ramped up. Now still, I don't mean that to say that Tesla is in first place in any sense. Tesla is still significantly behind. But just in the past couple months, they've gone from kind of not existing in terms of their robotaxi service to having something operational.
00:22:34 · Dan Chiolan, Ed Elson
[00:22:34] S4: Yeah. So I think the thing that that Tesla has really done well in these past few months is scale up very quickly. For a while, sort of in typical Elon Musk fashion, we were getting promises about an autonomous service rolling out in Austin and California. When in reality, you'd call a Tesla robotaxi, and there'd actually be a human safety monitor behind the In the past couple months, they've they've ditched the safety monitors in six cities. Like I said, they're they're fully commercial, fully autonomous. But the biggest advantage that Tesla has over Waymo is cost. So those Tesla Cybercabs cost about $25,000 to produce, whereas Waymo's cost upward of a $100,000. They have a a sort of much more thorough sensor load in the vehicles that they produce, which makes them more expensive. It makes them harder to build and take longer to build. So so Tesla has really ramped up. Now still, I don't mean that to say that Tesla is in first place in any sense. Tesla is still significantly behind. But just in the past couple months, they've gone from kind of not existing in terms of their robotaxi service to having something operational. [00:23:44] S5: On an international level, who is winning the AV race? It sounds like you believe that that the winner currently is Waymo, but Tesla seems to be beginning to catch up. On an international level, US, China, who's winning autonomous?
00:23:44 · Ed Elson, Dan Chiolan
[00:23:44] S5: On an international level, who is winning the AV race? It sounds like you believe that that the winner currently is Waymo, but Tesla seems to be beginning to catch up. On an international level, US, China, who's winning autonomous? [00:24:02] S4: Yeah. So I think internationally, it's definitely between The US and China. There are, you know, countless companies in China trying to do autonomous driving. I think where China is really winning is in manufacturing because they have the ability to manufacture electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles at a cost that's much lower than than any American company. But in terms of commercialization, America is definitely in the lead because there's no company in China that's doing as many paid rides as Waymo is. So so we're sort of very clearly in first place in that aspect. The thing that I think is important to know is most likely we will never see each other's technology. Like, America's never going to allow Chinese self driving companies here in America, and China won't allow American self driving companies in China. The place where the race is really gonna play out is in The Middle East and Europe, where those those countries can kind of, you know, choose which country to to get their autonomous driving technology from. And I think what's interesting so far is in The Middle East and in Europe, they've by and large gone with Chinese companies, whereas, you know, American companies like Waymo or Tesla have not been able to expand internationally. Do you think
00:24:02 · Dan Chiolan, Ed Elson
[00:24:02] S4: Yeah. So I think internationally, it's definitely between The US and China. There are, you know, countless companies in China trying to do autonomous driving. I think where China is really winning is in manufacturing because they have the ability to manufacture electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles at a cost that's much lower than than any American company. But in terms of commercialization, America is definitely in the lead because there's no company in China that's doing as many paid rides as Waymo is. So so we're sort of very clearly in first place in that aspect. The thing that I think is important to know is most likely we will never see each other's technology. Like, America's never going to allow Chinese self driving companies here in America, and China won't allow American self driving companies in China. The place where the race is really gonna play out is in The Middle East and Europe, where those those countries can kind of, you know, choose which country to to get their autonomous driving technology from. And I think what's interesting so far is in The Middle East and in Europe, they've by and large gone with Chinese companies, whereas, you know, American companies like Waymo or Tesla have not been able to expand internationally. Do you think [00:25:17] S5: that is a function of Chinese technology being better or maybe it's a geopolitical strategy? May... I mean, I can't tell if that says something about China's influence on Europe and The Middle East geopolitically. What is your read?
00:25:17 · Ed Elson, Dan Chiolan
[00:25:17] S5: that is a function of Chinese technology being better or maybe it's a geopolitical strategy? May... I mean, I can't tell if that says something about China's influence on Europe and The Middle East geopolitically. What is your read? [00:25:35] S4: I think they already have entered those countries with their electric vehicles and their vehicles in general, which has allowed them to get sort of a a foothold in the market there. But I also just think it's it's it speaks to American company strategy of focusing on the domestic battle first. Right? Waymo does have plans to expand internationally, but they're really focused on rolling out here in America first. [00:25:59] S5: One of the other obstacles for autonomous has been regulation. What does the regulatory picture in America look like right now?