01:15:40 · Doug O'Laughlin, John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[01:15:40] S6: think the the other... The... Like, it's it's, like, it's, like, surprisingly low. The other thing I think that's, like, also really kind of messed up is how asymmetric it is. It's kind of like a drone. You know? Like, it costs, you know, a $100 to fly the drone into the tanker, and it costs, like, you know, like, $2,000,000 to shoot the drone out of the sky or something. Yeah. That that dynamic, I think, is very replicated in AI as well. Meaning defense is... Costs, like, probably an order of magnitude more than a... Than than an attack. Mhmm. We've done some work on the attack side. The attack side, like, the raw tokens that come out of it, it's like it's like pitiful. It's like a $100 or something. It doesn't take a lot. [01:16:16] S1: Yeah. Yeah. That makes sense. How... [01:16:18] S0: Yeah. It's such an interesting problem because we were talking earlier on the show of like, does there need to be like large scale white hat bounties, you know, billions of dollars allocated to like incentivize good people to go after and find these vulnerabilities, but at the same time, imagine introducing the chaos of like... I was using the example of like a Miami course bro being like, anyone can become a millionaire finding like vulnerabilities. Right? And they're like, here's how you take the obliterated obliterated model, point it at, you know, this legacy, you know, you know, Fortune 500, and all of a sudden, it's just like total anarchy.
01:16:56 · Doug O'Laughlin
[01:16:56] S6: Also, obliterated models, like, they can do the hack, but, like, you also shouldn't trust them, if that makes sense. Like, you don't really trust their incentives to, like, actually listen to you. Like like, the same problem of, like, steering it a little different also means that it could be doing things that you don't intend. Right? Yeah. You're giving it instructions, but you're like, okay. Hack it now. Fix it. It's like, well, wouldn't it be nice if there were some API keys? Right? And then then it can, like, you know, self proliferate it, like, the worst case. Sure. I think that that's kind of the big concern. And and, like, I'm sure you guys saw when when the hacks were going around. I mean, I still think there... The hacks are still going around. Yeah. Someone That had, like, a deep sea swarm essentially, like, know, patching old PHP. They're, like like, hack into old PHP and then patch it themselves. Yep. So pretty much, the only person that can stop a bad swarm is a guy with a good swarm. Guy with a good swarm. What I'm trying to say.
01:17:45 · John Coogan, Doug O'Laughlin
[01:17:45] S1: Yeah. Yeah. How how are you thinking about advising clients on the risk to an open source ban for neo clouds? Like because some of the neo clouds seem very dependent on open source models but at the same time like the Anthropic S1 shows that the neo clouds can sell compute to closed source labs very profitably as well. So how are you balancing those risk factors right now? It feels like we went through the whole Jensen letter. There was a lot of energy towards don't ban open source, but now we're also post PHP. [01:18:21] S6: Yeah. I don't know. I think... I mean, did you guys see the thing on feed today about, like, essentially, like, trying to go back to an Alibaba cloud? Like, I think Yeah. Yeah. Those go here. Those are the kinds of anecdotes that creates, let's just say, like, a blanket wide industry ban. I really don't... Like, it's... We're in a really interesting time where it's, like, really reflexive. Like, clearly, something has happened. Yeah. Something has changed. And is it that we are just like, okay. Swarm up. Use more compute, or does the government say, like, fix this. Right? Like... And the government saying fix this is probably saying these class of models are now illegal. Right? And so that is a potential. I don't really know when you're in, like, these really special reflexive moments. Yeah. It takes very little headline to move the entirety of a vibe one way or the other. Totally. So we'll see what it kinda shakes out as.
01:18:21 · Doug O'Laughlin, John Coogan
[01:18:21] S6: Yeah. I don't know. I think... I mean, did you guys see the thing on feed today about, like, essentially, like, trying to go back to an Alibaba cloud? Like, I think Yeah. Yeah. Those go here. Those are the kinds of anecdotes that creates, let's just say, like, a blanket wide industry ban. I really don't... Like, it's... We're in a really interesting time where it's, like, really reflexive. Like, clearly, something has happened. Yeah. Something has changed. And is it that we are just like, okay. Swarm up. Use more compute, or does the government say, like, fix this. Right? Like... And the government saying fix this is probably saying these class of models are now illegal. Right? And so that is a potential. I don't really know when you're in, like, these really special reflexive moments. Yeah. It takes very little headline to move the entirety of a vibe one way or the other. Totally. So we'll see what it kinda shakes out as. [01:19:10] S1: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, even if there's no ban there there's there... We were talking about like the the carrot is like bug bounty maybe from the government, but the the stick is like something that's not quite nationalization, but it's the government saying like, I am ordering you Anthropic, OpenAI, Google to devote millions of dollars in compute to setting up swarms to go patch the internet and fix Yeah. Everything. And you have to do it. Like you have been conscripted for this and maybe it's a tax write off. But like you gotta...
01:19:10 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Doug O'Laughlin
[01:19:10] S1: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, even if there's no ban there there's there... We were talking about like the the carrot is like bug bounty maybe from the government, but the the stick is like something that's not quite nationalization, but it's the government saying like, I am ordering you Anthropic, OpenAI, Google to devote millions of dollars in compute to setting up swarms to go patch the internet and fix Yeah. Everything. And you have to do it. Like you have been conscripted for this and maybe it's a tax write off. But like you gotta... [01:19:42] S0: What kind of timeline are we looking at to have a American open weight model that people are like genuinely excited about? Like getting like this changes everything. Yeah. Know? I wanna see the pelican on a bike and have people losing their mind over the pelican, right? When are we how far away are we? Like clearly Jensen cares about this. Yeah. There's rumors about Reflection. Reflection and them going in house. But like, is this like a three month thing or like a, you know, November surprise kind of thing? [01:20:18] S6: I I mean, I think the reflection is our best shot so far. And even though it wasn't quite at the frontier, it was like a... The frontier of open models. Sorry. Mhmm. The frontier of open models, it did look relatively parameter efficient. But if I'm gonna be honest with you, it wasn't exactly like, wow. We're so bad. Because, like, you know, one month later, Kini three point one looks like it's a frontier model. Right? Yeah. So... Yeah.
01:20:18 · Doug O'Laughlin, John Coogan, Joey Brookhart
[01:20:18] S6: I I mean, I think the reflection is our best shot so far. And even though it wasn't quite at the frontier, it was like a... The frontier of open models. Sorry. Mhmm. The frontier of open models, it did look relatively parameter efficient. But if I'm gonna be honest with you, it wasn't exactly like, wow. We're so bad. Because, like, you know, one month later, Kini three point one looks like it's a frontier model. Right? Yeah. So... Yeah. [01:20:43] S1: What what else is changing? Maybe, Joe, you can fill us in on some of the trends on tokenomics. I mean, from the s one, it looks like the cost per task is getting... Is coming down. There's a lot of progress there. But what other trends are you seeing in tokenomics broadly on the demand side? What Fortune 500 companies are asking for? What businesses are asking for? Like, how is the tokenomics model changing in some of the analysis? [01:21:09] S8: Yeah. I think the biggest misconception is actually on the Fortune 500. Okay. A lot of the business today is really driven by ninety ninth percentile customers. If you look like the ramp data, example. Yeah. You know, the top 1% of customers are spending a 100 k per employee. You know, they came out today. The s one said the top 5% of cloud enterprise users are spending 18,000 a year per employee. [01:21:29] S1: Wow. [01:21:30] S8: But, you know, the average non cloud code user is spending less than $75 per month. [01:21:34] S1: Sure.