00:00:55 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:00:55] S1: That age.... Days. Because over the weekend, was thinking about we did Jeff Bezos 62 on the sixty two days till Christmas. And I and I was like, was it Jeff Bezos birthday or was that just a random fun fact? And it appears to be a random fun fact. Anyway, let me tell you about ramp.com. Time does money save both. He's used corporate cards, bill pay, accounting and a whole lot more all in one place. So do you think Anthropic with... By dropping the s one on exactly fifty nine days till Christmas is trying to send like some sort of subliminal message? Some new What would [00:01:25] S0: that message be? [00:01:26] S1: Oh, just that it's fifty nine days, so you should go into the s one, control f for the number 59 to find like the hidden meaning of the s one. [00:01:34] S0: Or go to page 59. [00:01:35] S1: Go to page 59. Maybe you should. [00:01:38] S0: Have you been yet?
00:01:38 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:01:38] S0: Have you been yet? [00:01:38] S1: Oh, I've been to page 59. I think I know exactly what they're trying to say with this. It's fifty nine days till Christmas. Open up the S1, control f, hit 59, page down to page 59. What do you see? It says, We may not have the ability to raise the funds necessary to repay the principal and accrued interest of our outstanding. Yeah. It's just a random page. I don't think there's anything going on. Anyway, there are a bunch of interesting facts. You got to dig through it. The s one is huge, obviously. I mean, it's a massive company raising a massive amount of money. The exact amount of money that they're raising is not... Has not been listed yet. There's there's sort of speculation in the Wall Street Journal around a $100,000,000,000 raised. Bloomberg contextualized the IPO filing as Anthropic files for IPO in global race to raise cash for AI. The interesting thing is that Anthropic has a lot of cash. They also have a lot of revenue, 67,200,000,000 in annualized revenue. That's up 45% quarter on quarter at this scale. Incredible. Super, super, super fast growth. And full Q3 numbers aren't in the initial S1, but that number that was rumored from the Anthropic Investor Day is now in the actual S1. Cash on hand, 131,700,000,000. That's a lot of cash. And they've been super capital efficient. People are saying it might be the most capital efficient company in history. They, of course, brought in 110,800,000,000 in first half.
00:03:14 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, David Faugno
[00:03:14] S0: Yeah. It's one the most remarkable stories in business history, period. Yeah. And the S1 came out. I think in some ways, like the leak around the S1 that had happened maybe a week or two ago around this like and the number that everyone fixated on was this $80,000,000,000 [00:03:30] S1: Loss. [00:03:30] S0: Loss, this accounting charge. I think people now have had an opportunity to dig in And the funny thing is the nature of having access to Claude and Chad GBT and other agents is people can process the s one a lot faster. Totally. So we're already getting like a lot of... It used to be like an s one would release and the VCs would have... Like an analyst... Twelve hours. Well, they've had twelve hours to pull out interesting Yeah. Now it's... Now it's like you you... It's it's all coming out in real time. Totally. And it's... Yeah. Totally remarkable. I think it's amazing for the AI trade overall. [00:04:01] S1: It feels like a beat. It feels like this beat expectations. Totally. It didn't like surprise, oh, they're actually doing a 100,000,000,000 in revenue or something. But I mean, really, really solid people haven't found anything that's like, oh, I I didn't understand that the business was actually shaped a very different way or something. Like, this this sort of meets expectations. [00:04:22] S0: I yield Harry said, you know it's a decent s one when hasn't tweeted anything out [00:04:26] S2: Yeah. [00:04:26] S1: I I think this is a beat on the expectations of the s one.
00:04:26 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:04:26] S1: I I think this is a beat on the expectations of the s one. [00:04:29] S0: Well, he's doing the old command f. Command f. He has the command f. Right? [00:04:33] S1: Command f bad. Command f sad. Command f problem. The Nasdaq is up 1%, and it feels like the AI trade is starting to like get put back on. Obviously, there's been a lot of a lot of selling in the further risk on the further out on the risk curve assets in the AI trade. Some of the neo cloud's down a lot. But if you look into what Anthropic's doing, it seems like they're going to be buying a lot of compute from Neo Clouds. Like there's this interesting thing where they raised a $110,000,000,000. They have a $130,000,000,000 in cash. How much did they spend in the first half of the year on CapEx? Right? This is the company that wants to serve AI at scale and how much do they actually spend buying computers, building computers that they own? $482,000,000. Less than $500,000,000. I mean, now, of course, over time, they'll build more. They'll do all sorts of stuff. [00:05:32] S0: Yeah. They've been renting [00:05:33] S1: at in the first half of the year, the strategy has been to rent. And then also, they have a pretty huge amount of backlog with the the hyperscalers. And it looks like this scary number. I think it's $690,000,000,000 of commitments. Really not that much, 10 x of of revenue currently if they scaling. [00:05:53] S0: But over a multi year period.
00:05:56 · John Coogan
[00:05:56] S1: Yeah. Yeah. So there's there's Google Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are all in the forty to a hundred and thirty billion dollar range. I can pull up the exact numbers, but the but the contracts are how much that they have to spend on compute through 2033. Some of them go all the way out to 2036, which is really, really, really far. So they have a lot of time to actually work through that. So Google Cloud, commitment is a $114,500,000,000 and that's minimum cloud spending through July 2033. So they're just renting and it's over a long period of time. Is there any scenario where they don't have the demand to actually parcel out 20,000,000,000 of spend over the next six years, seven years? It seems like they're in a good position there. AWS is a 110,000,000,000 and that's stretched out to 2,036. And then Azure is only 45,000,000,000 and that's minimum cloud spending through 2033. Now they do have a 120,000,000,000 with SpaceX AI. That's up to, that's the maximum and then n scales at 45, lambdas at 42,000,000,000 Broadcom's at a 161,000,000,000 for a total of 637,000,000,000 in spending commitments. But again, over five, six, it may be eight years in some of these scenarios. So pretty pretty healthy there. The other interesting surprises, I mean people are pretty happy about the margins. So compute cost as a function of revenue, they were at 72%. You can think about this as like cost of goods. 72% of every dollar they made was getting eaten up by compute costs. That's down to 48 compute costs divided by revenue. So that's rapidly improving efficiency quarter on quarter. Then the adjusted operating margin gained 32 percentage points quarter on quarter for almost $1,000,000,000 in GAAP profit. They went from negative 13% to 19% operating margin. And then the big number that is that people are excited about is the big customers. So they have, I think, over a thousand customers spending over $1,000,000, something like that. And then...
00:08:12 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:08:12] S0: Over 10,000 spending over a 100 k. [00:08:14] S1: Over... Yeah. Over 10,000 spending a 100 k. And net revenue retention is 900% on those. So they got in early in 2024, 2025. And then all of those companies scaled up. So maybe they had a smaller subscription, smaller. They were using the APIs here and there. And then we went to the token maxing era. They were in the right place. And so many companies scaled their spend that on average, it was basically a 10x increase Yeah. For organizations. But that makes sense. We've all seen this as, you know, more and more people are like, Hey, it's not just like the early adopter on the team that has an AI agent running all the time. It's actually spread to everyone. It's spread to the marketing organization, the operations teams using it. And so these services are going out all over the place. They have more than half of the Fortune five hundred spending over a $100,000 annually. That actually felt low to me. Obviously, it's really impressive. Like, it's great. But I'm sort of... Like, I I was under the assumption that all of the Fortune five hundred was spending a lot on, like, every single model. Yeah. And I would have said, oh oh, of the Fortune five hundred, 100 k annually. The Fortune five hundred is probably spending 100 k annually on open source models and OpenAI and Google and Microsoft and Anthropic. Like, I [00:09:28] S0: would Got to ask assume what what that half is, what they're up to.