00:23:25 · Jordi Hays, Alex Spiro, John Coogan, Apoorva Mehta, Tyler
[00:23:25] S0: I needed to... Oh, yeah. We've talked about merch for so long. Yeah. [00:23:30] S2: Talked about [00:23:30] S0: But I needed to be able to prove to everyone that it's actually happening. Mhmm. It's gonna be next week. What day did I say it was gonna be? When's the launch date? I think it's I think it's Thursday, the twelfth. The twelfth, we are launching the merch store. And this will be available as well as a bunch of other stuff. Very excited. [00:23:53] S1: Okay. Is Idaho actually voting on a state [00:23:55] S0: gun? Yes. [00:23:57] S1: This is real. For sure. So I mean, you... Everyone knows they've state flower. [00:24:03] S3: What was [00:24:03] S1: the result? State flower. I guess the result... [00:24:06] S5: It was the I think Winchester model eighteen seventy three rifle. [00:24:10] S1: Okay. The Winchester Winchester eighteen seventy three rifle. Interesting. Well, fun for them. Funny that the the the the... We saw someone posting about that. Somebody endorsed it in their voters guide and in that post they said it was satirical that they were just joking around. But I guess they were just joking about them actually making a recommendation but it was in fact on the ballot. [00:24:33] S0: Maybe they were joking because like everyone knows that it's the Winchester [00:24:36] S1: and so it's not like Well, a heated a real ball knower. Yeah. That we got caught out not knowing. [00:24:43] S0: They had to do a vote but everyone and I don't Everyone knows. [00:24:46] S1: Yeah. Obviously. Obviously. No. They had endorsed...
00:24:46 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:24:46] S1: Yeah. Obviously. Obviously. No. They had endorsed... [00:24:50] S0: The Winchester model eighteen seventy three is called the gun that won the West. [00:24:54] S1: Oh. It's a lever action, right? The gun that won the West? When you got a good like like subtitle name like that, I feel like you're kind of punching above your weight on the ballot. Right? Because, know, the other ones are just a bunch of mumbo jumbo, bunch of numbers, bunch of serial numbers effectively and then you got one with the superlative, the gun that won the West. It has it has its own nickname. So that's a pretty good pretty good spot. Let me tell you about Figma. Agents need the canvas. Your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system context. We talked about Kalshi and Polymarket, Joe Weisenthal agrees, huge win for Prediction markets. My only my my only take from last night, both in the run up to the vote and on election night, the prediction markets did exactly what they were supposed to do. A big confident forecast in the run up and incredibly timely conveying the data as it dropped. Nick Carter agrees. Prediction markets were spot on last night and Matt Wong as well. Well, let's move over to what else is in the journal today because we got a new term, a new coinage. Are you excited for this? [00:26:05] S0: Yeah. [00:26:05] S1: FOGO. You've heard of FOMO, fear of missing out. Now, you need to learn about FOGO, the fear of getting obliterated in the market. [00:26:15] S0: I wish that Bain Capital had come up with this one. Why? Don't they own Fogo de Chao?
00:26:21 · John Coogan
[00:26:21] S1: Oh, they do. Yes. So hedge fund Elliott warns of Fogo, fear of getting obliterated in the market. The $80,000,000,000 hedge fund firm posted flat returns in the third quarter and under a 2% gain this year through September. And that is almost impressive given how much gyration there's been. You know, there's been people that have been absolutely printing just being like long tech or something like that. And then there's other been... There's been hedge fund blowups and over leverages and all sorts of stuff. But Paul Singer's Elliott Investment Management compared the current state of the markets laden with debt fueled risk taking and bubbling with hype over new technologies to the roaring twenties that preceded the Great Depression. At present, virtually every alarm bell warning of a substantial bear market ahead is ringing, the $80,000,000,000 hedge fund firm wrote in an October investor letter reviewed by the Wall Street Journal. While Elliott is prepping for potential for potentially historic upheaval, its performance is lagging behind the broader hedge fund industry. Elliott's returns were flat in the first three months ending September 30 leaving its gains for the last nine months a little under 2% according to the letter. That trails a composite hedge fund index as well as the nearly 13% total return of the S and P 500 from the same gain. And even index even short term treasury bills were doing 3%. So they're underperforming treasuries. So are they being too cautious or are they you know seeing the future here? Elliott's quarterly letters are known for their doom and gloom commentary on the dominant themes of the day. Black pill hedge fund. Just black pilling in every letter. Its October message highlighted risks building in US budget deficits, persistent inflation, private credit portfolios and artificial intelligence hype. And it warned about market distortions caused by factors it said were more akin to gambling than investing, including traders using zero day options and betting on meme stocks, which they have come up against because of course Elliott is the the famous hedge fund that went up against WallStreetBets in the Robinhood GameStop saga. Singer and Jonathan Pollack, the firm's two chief executives and chief investment officers run one of the hedge fund industry's largest pools of capital.
00:28:39 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
And a lot of people were assuming that Elliott would be completely destroyed by that saga. In fact, they closed their position. I think Ken Griffin helped out. And they've done well because they've scaled the firm since that saga and a lot of people were like, it's over for them. And that was kind of the way they were depicted in that movie, if I'm not incorrect. It avoids swinging. [00:29:01] S0: And and Elliott didn't buy a bunch of like Neo Cloud stocks like They didn't. Right? [00:29:09] S1: I I I don't know. [00:29:09] S0: Hopefully not. Because that could be that could be [00:29:12] S1: Neo Cloud's... In a tough spot. [00:29:14] S0: Obliteration scenario.
00:29:15 · John Coogan
[00:29:15] S1: Yeah. Obliteration scenario. Currently, they wrote they're focused on preserving their capital and being ready to strike if the market runs into turmoil. Over Elliott's five decade existence, fallow periods have existed but these have historically been accompanied by market turbulence and followed by periods of rare opportunities. Our goal is to be well positioned, protected on the downside and with capital to deploy into the bargains when the tide turns again. In the third quarter, Elliott's unprofitable sectors included distressed debt and portfolio hedges related to gold currencies, stocks, and interest rates. Its profitable sectors included commodities, arbitrage, and portfolio hedges related to credit. The firm sees opportunities in activist investing, in healthcare companies, producing energy opportunities, and eventually buying from forced sellers in dislocated credit markets. Its recent activist positions include stakes in PepsiCo and Synopsys, a chip design software maker. So interesting. I just like the new coinage. FOGO, fear of getting obliterated. The actual quote here from the letter, so many factors have lined up to cause this great boom that it might take disruption in only one or two of them to shift this momentum into reverse leading to a cascading self reinforcing unwind of this bull market and an abrupt change from FOMO to FOGO, fear of getting obliterated. So FOMO drives the market upward. Everyone thinks, I gotta get in. I just saw somebody print a three x on Nvidia, a 10 x on Micron. I gotta get in. I don't wanna miss out. FOGO, if everyone's getting blown up, doesn't matter what you're in, you're gonna sell your dollar, sell your gold, sell your crypto, sell everything. That's what they're worried about. So some black pilling from the folks over Elliott.
00:30:53 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:30:53] S0: Well, it's a bull market for the California Institute for Immunology and Immunotherapy. The institute's co founder, Gary K. Michelson, put a proposition Prop 38 on the ballot that passed, which gives his three person nonprofit 4,200,000,000 from the public. Really? Ahmad over at Mercury says something feels a bit iffy about California Prop 38 doing a popular vote proposed by a three person nonprofit that gives said nonprofit 4,200,000,000. [00:31:31] S1: That's a lot of money. [00:31:32] S0: It is a lot of money. Of course, I'm sure they're gonna redistribute hopefully like 99.9% of those funds to various research But still it seems like this one simple trick if you're a nonprofit Yeah. Is like get a... [00:31:49] S1: Well, the real move would be do that and then do the for profit conversion. Right? [00:31:52] S0: Trey says, man raised his series a via ballot. Yeah. Honestly, this is more like a series f. Yeah. More like