The Compound and Friends
00:46:45 · Michael Batnick, Josh Brown
[00:46:45] S1: great chart. [00:46:46] S0: Yeah. Is this coming from Jared Blikre? I don't know how to pronounce his name. I like the guy. [00:46:52] S1: How do you spell it? [00:46:52] S0: He's b l I k r e. I like the guy. He's doing really great. [00:46:58] S1: That's that's true. Yeah. Blicker? Is is the r silent? Is it Blake? [00:47:05] S0: Believe the r is pronounced like a q because he is Macedonian. Anyway, I like the guy. He's a good writer, and I think he's covering the market in a really intelligent way for Yahoo Finance. This is Apple turning into a hedge. So what you're seeing here is the share of days Apple stock rose while the SOX, which is the Philly Semiconductor Index, fell by 2% or more. And this is by year. So this is every year. And this year, 65% of the time, when the stocks is down 2% or more, Apple is higher. What does that tell you? It is literally exactly what we said was going to happen. Apple is like the anti AI large cap tech trade. Put up the second one. Apple's CapEx, it almost can't be seen on the chart. It's so small. So this is CapEx over the last four quarters. I guess the difference over the last four quarters, Apple has grown by 10,000,000,000 Amazon has grown by $215,000,000,000 [00:48:17] S1: And they said that it's going be meaningfully higher next year. [00:48:23] S0: Yeah. So, I thought we got this one right. And there's a whole video on it from whenever September, if anybody Before wants to
00:48:23 · Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:48:23] S0: Yeah. So, I thought we got this one right. And there's a whole video on it from whenever September, if anybody Before wants to [00:48:30] S1: we move on to the next topic, Bespoke had an interesting chart. Google searches for AI bubble exploded in the last week of October to more than twice the previous autumn highs. Would you consider that a warning sign or a contrarian signal? And honestly, I don't know. I mean, I'll in tell six months. [00:48:44] S0: No, it's not a contrarian signal because people have been saying bubble the whole time. How do you time that? People are saying bubble three years ago. No, no, first time Hold The first time in video, you broke a trillion dollar market cap, people said bubble. [00:48:57] S1: Literal Google searches, not squishy stuff. [00:49:02] S0: Explain it. Wake me up and we could see the OpenAI searches too because now those are 20%. [00:49:08] S1: Alright. So next topic. [00:49:10] S0: What do we have? [00:49:11] S1: Unless there's anything else you had. [00:49:13] S0: Are we doing I mean, this [00:49:14] S1: is a good segue. This is a good segue to hedging. [00:49:16] S0: Alright. Oh, I wanna do the Kevin Warsh thing. Just a quote. React to this. [00:49:21] S1: Uh-huh.
00:49:21 · Michael Batnick, Josh Brown
[00:49:21] S1: Uh-huh. [00:49:22] S0: It's in The Wall Street Journal on October 28. Quote, there was a narrative for a while, maybe even in this room, over the course of the last several press conferences that tighter monetary policy is, quote, not going to have any effect on AI because the returns that investors are expecting are so different, Warsh said, quote, I was skeptical of that view. Interest rates get in the cracks. Interest rates affect, directly or indirectly, almost everything, end quote. What are your thoughts? [00:50:05] S1: So that certainly was the narrative. It's not anymore. Wasn't. Yeah. And two weeks ago, when the Neoclouds really fell out of bed, Last week, we played the clip from the CEO of, of Nebius saying that certain certain debt is just closed. Just certain funding is just not available anymore. And so it took everything down with it. Yeah. But I don't know [00:50:32] S0: In the cracks being the interesting part. Like, the the the Neoclouds, which I have more on later in the show, that's what he means. That's what's in the cracks. [00:50:42] S1: So I don't I don't know that it is effect. I don't know that interest rates today, certainly not overnight rates. I know everything is priced off of that, I suppose. I don't think interest rates today are impacting the hyperscalers. I think it's a lot of other shit that's impacting the price. [00:50:56] S0: I would just say it's part of the story. And maybe it's the most unexpected part if you were to rewind back to January. Was anyone worried about interest rates impacting the financing costs for all
00:50:56 · Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:50:56] S0: I would just say it's part of the story. And maybe it's the most unexpected part if you were to rewind back to January. Was anyone worried about interest rates impacting the financing costs for all [00:51:09] S1: these Let me a quick 180. Let me just take this out of what I just said fifteen seconds ago. Here's where it's impacting it. Here's where it's impacting. Listen, hand up. I'm... Yeah. Hand up. I'm man enough to disagree with myself. [00:51:21] S0: It's a livestream. It's... You're allowed to not agree with what you just said. [00:51:25] S1: Okay. So here's where it's making a real impact. Higher cost of capital. Actually, you know what? We're not gonna we're not gonna issue more debt. We're actually gonna... We're gonna do some dilution. We're gonna raise some money through through Yeah. [00:51:39] S0: It's an impact. Equity cost has an impact. [00:51:41] S1: That... That's an obvious impact. Stock... The stock market does not like that. [00:51:44] S0: So Wall Street Wall Street Journal, everyone... This is a big article on Sunday, I think, or Saturday. Everyone's looking for insurance against their AI bets. And I would just say, not something you typically say at the top of a bubble. So take that for what it's worth. The title of the article is AI investors are racing to get insurance on the biggest market bet in history. Okay. So I sort of like that that's the way people are thinking now. It's, all right, we're going to make these huge bets on CapEx and credit and blah, blah, blah. Let's go. [00:52:18] S1: I'm looking space
00:52:18 · Michael Batnick, Josh Brown
[00:52:18] S1: I'm looking space [00:52:19] S0: to get some protection on. [00:52:20] S1: I love the headline, but the substance of the article, they're buying puts on CoreWeave. [00:52:27] S0: Chart on. You're right. And not that many. This is priced in the y axis is 1,000 of contracts. So 800,000 contracts traded on core we've put options. I guess that's over the last two weeks or so. So [00:52:49] S1: as you've been saying all year, a bull market takes out its own trash. Yeah. [00:52:54] S0: I like that. I think that's good. You rather see call options? Would you rather see 800,000 call options on CoreWeave? I know I wouldn't. And then the article talks to a whole bunch of people at Jump Trading and Susquehanna who are creating basically using options, creating insurance for various investors and traders and companies. Again, you don't typically see things like this in an active bubble. So it's all fair statement. Right? [00:53:28] S1: Yeah. Okay. Last thing before we do make the case of mystery chart. So Aswath Damodaran came out with his inputs. And of course, it's a model and every model is bullshit, but whatever. His bullshit model said that he values he values anthropics equity at 1,475,000,000,000. Again About [00:53:48] S0: where about where everyone else values it?
00:53:48 · Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:53:48] S0: where about where everyone else values it? [00:53:50] S1: It's not precise. But what I thought was interesting is you can see the guesstimated market cap on Hyperliquid. There is a ton of volume, like, I think 20,000,000 in the last twenty four hours. Whatever it is. It's it's a ton of money being traded. Look at this. So Anthropic, they have they have it pegged at 1,770,000,000,000, and they have OpenAI at 1,400,000,000,000. Or if they [00:54:20] S0: roughly what The Wall Street Journal is saying, according to investors. [00:54:25] S1: And so if they if they if the IPO price at $1.1500000000000, yeah, there would be a pop. I mean, at least that's what is being implied today. So Matt Levine was writing about this today. He said the perps are we're talking about the perpetual futures on hyper liquid. He said the perps are in a sense, just a recreational prediction market on the price of the stock, not a derivative instrument tied to the price of the stock by arbitrage mechanisms. But a really important thing we have learned about finance in the last few years is that prediction markets are pretty accurate. That is if you have a platform where people can make real money bets on some outcome, their bets will tend to give a pretty accurate and well calibrated estimate of the actual outcome. End quote. And it was pretty damn right about SpaceX. I know it's pretty right about Cerebras. And I know that's only two, but we don't have a million a million of these in the history. I think I think of guessing at [00:55:14] S0: where the open's gonna be?