The Compound and Friends
00:33:08 · Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:33:08] S0: Tried to do... And they 've actually... Nobody's saying this, but I'll say it. They actually failed. YouTube's obviously unbelievable success. I don't mean the whole business failed. They tried that YouTube Red, which now they call YouTube Premium, which was gonna be elevated content, the good stuff, it didn't really work. It didn't go anywhere. They don't... Right. Well, that's the point. [00:33:37] S1: Well, guess what? There's always succeed. There's a gap at Google down at two fifteen. [00:33:42] S0: Where do you wanna buy the stock? Where do wanna buy the stock? [00:33:44] S1: 23% lower. I would Where do wanna truck them? If it got to $2.13 or two fifteen. If it got to that gap from September 2025, that's 20 ish plus 22% lower. I would be very happy to buy a lot there. [00:33:58] S0: I gotta take a look at this. Hold on. Hold on. Okay. What is the significance of two fifteen? [00:34:06] S1: Is the September gap 2025. Looking G O [00:34:18] S0: O G? Yes. The stock You're going back to last September? [00:34:25] S1: Yes. [00:34:28] S0: All right. I this $2.70 area for a shorter term. [00:34:35] S1: Where it's [00:34:36] S0: going to bounce. [00:34:37] S1: That's It's [00:34:37] S0: 2.78. [00:34:38] S1: I mean, whatever.
00:34:38 · Michael Batnick, Josh Brown
[00:34:38] S1: I mean, whatever. [00:34:39] S0: 2.79. Was the... Well, hear me out for a second, okay? That was the low in March. That was the panic lows in March. And the bounce off of that level was extremely decisive. This stock traded from $2.70 in March. By May, it was 400. I wanna wanna I wanna give it one more day in the 270s, a quiet day. And then I think I would use that $2.70 as my stop. I'd risk seven points to make 50 points. [00:35:14] S1: Fine. I don't think it's going to happen because earnings was four sessions ago and it hasn't bounced even for a second. [00:35:22] S0: But I'm okay with that. I don't think it deserves to bounce. I I... Like, I don't I don't think [00:35:29] S1: not in the numbers. Doesn't deserve to bounce. [00:35:33] S0: I'm looking to see if it... I'm looking to see if it I'm looking to see if it holds the fifty two week low. That's all. [00:35:39] S1: Okay. Alright. If it doesn't I'll talk [00:35:41] S0: If it doesn't, you'll [00:35:41] S1: find that in five seconds. It'll happen Halo. Let's talk about Halo. [00:35:46] S0: Is Halo back, Michael? [00:35:48] S1: Well, Berkshire Hathaway is at an all time high, so yes.
00:35:48 · Michael Batnick, Josh Brown
[00:35:48] S1: Well, Berkshire Hathaway is at an all time high, so yes. [00:35:52] S0: Of think Mhmm. It Alright. Let me share with you. This is Tony Pasquariello writing this weekend after the tech earnings debacle week. Despite a handful of cloud businesses that are compounding huge growth rates on huge denominators, Q3 results will be remembered as a disappointment. Alongside the never ending debates on returns, capital and free cash flow, to my eye, this was the central issue for the moment anyway. At a time when hyperscaler CapEx intentions are not slowing down, a few of the big guns missed somewhere in the core of their business. Nailed it. Skipping ahead. Coming into this week [00:36:34] S1: Wait. Hang on. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Where did Microsoft miss? Where did Amazon miss? [00:36:39] S0: I think Meta. I think you saw Meta and [00:36:42] S1: Meta and Google. [00:36:43] S0: Google. All right. So a handful, could be two. Coming into this week, my general view was the bull market should continue in 'twenty seven, but it would pack less punt. This is Tony Pasquariello's on the trading desk, Goldman Sachs. Everybody who's everybody reads his note. There's not much debate that S and P earnings have been superb. At the same time, however, it increasingly appears that earnings growth has peaked. And Adam Parker is saying the same thing. In addition, relative to the last few reporting cycles, the rate of upgrades to forward estimates has clearly slowed. This [00:37:19] S1: is That's an absolute
00:37:19 · Michael Batnick, Josh Brown
[00:37:19] S1: is That's an absolute [00:37:21] S0: Yeah. They're both saying it, and they're looking at the same data. One chart for the road, though. The past three weeks has been very tough on US mega cap tech. For example, the fourth largest company in the index had the single worst day ever as a public company. That's Google. At the same time, note the broader trend in S and P X AI. So this is a Goldman Sachs basket. This is literally Halo, but the Goldman version making a record high, the S and P X AI stocks, is The what Halo is [00:37:56] S1: money has to go somewhere, does [00:37:58] S0: it not? So is Halo back? 500,000,000,000 Pasquariello said, [00:38:02] S1: billion gets a race in the after hours in Google, and poof. It shows up in fucking Target. [00:38:08] S0: Alright. Here's the ETF that, full disclosure, I'm an adviser on. The ticker is LOHA. This is the Roundhill Halo ETF that they launched earlier this year. So I'm not cherry picking the dates. This is literally inception. The fund launched in May. There's some separation happening here, handsome. Mhmm. What do you think about that? You see the see the orange line not doing what the purple line's doing?
00:38:08 · Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:38:08] S0: Alright. Here's the ETF that, full disclosure, I'm an adviser on. The ticker is LOHA. This is the Roundhill Halo ETF that they launched earlier this year. So I'm not cherry picking the dates. This is literally inception. The fund launched in May. There's some separation happening here, handsome. Mhmm. What do you think about that? You see the see the orange line not doing what the purple line's doing? [00:38:36] S1: We we have yet to really give an opinion on what's been happening. Is Halo back? I love it. I love what's happening in the stock market. I think this is so bullish. You have next twelve months earning estimates unrelenting up into the right. You have multiples coming down. You have growth rates that are pretty damn good, and you have a gigantic wall of worry. People are really, really worried, and I think it's awesome for the sustainability of a bull market. [00:39:05] S0: Anecdotally, I wanna point out, I don't agree that they're worried. I think they were worried, and now I [00:39:13] S1: What think what do you mean? You don't think people are worried about the AI trade? [00:39:17] S0: Alright. No. No. No. No. I don't mean it that way. I think people actively despise the AI investing. I did Scott Galloway's show last week with Ed Elson. It it got a thousand comments on YouTube. I swear to God, I have never seen such utter disgust disrespect, not toward me or a little bit toward me, but like just toward AI. [00:39:46] S1: Yeah. People hate it.
00:39:46 · Michael Batnick, Josh Brown
[00:39:46] S1: Yeah. People hate it. [00:39:46] S0: They fucking hate it. Like, you you wouldn't believe it. A thousand comments. Scott's a scumbag. Ed's a scumbag. Josh is scumbag because we're even talking... I'm not... We're not we're not even bullish, really. We're just talking about AI, the revulsion, and I think they have a young audience. Our audience is super upbeat for the most part. Like, it's a very different... Their audience is so furiously angry about it's a bubble that's gonna lose people money. They don't like... The the company is gonna profit off laying people off. They don't like [00:40:21] S1: what the [00:40:22] S0: data centers... Like, look at these comments. [00:40:25] S1: It's it's Hang on. Back Back up. What's your point? [00:40:29] S0: I don't think it's just worry about the stock prices. I think the AI story now has sort of become like this just lightning rod for everything that people are feeling. I think they think data centers are pushing up the price of gas. I don't even know what... I don't even fully understand what... So while earlier we were saying it's not really on the ballot, I don't think the elections are turning based on it. It is very much on people's minds twenty four seven and nobody other than Silicon Valley has anything good to say.