The Compound and Friends
00:16:48 · Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:16:48] S0: Wait. Go back to the first chart. So for the people listening, not watching... No. I'm sorry. Yeah. For the people listening, not watching, a year ago, the commercial revenues at Palantir, which is like Fortune 500 customers type customers, was $397,000,000 And now it's $984,000,000 So it's almost a full triple in their commercial business. And the commercial business is now larger than the government contracting business, which is nine fifty three. And again, this is in one quarter. Yeah. Over the course of one year, but I'm saying inside of this Q3 period. That's right. For anyone who was writing this off as it's basically a tech defense contractor, well, maybe that was the story. It's not the story today. What was that last chart that you had up? So this is commercial revenues on the left and the revenue growth expressed in percentage terms on the right. It's 148% commercial revenue growth year over year. How many companies are doing anything like this? None? One? Mean, these are pretty impressive. Now people will say, Oh, it can't sustain. Okay, fine. But they're doing it right now. I I get it. Yeah, eventually the Atlantic Ocean will run dry and it'll be a dust bowl. But between now and then, they're doing it. They're doing the thing. So what are your thoughts on the stock price reaction, Palantir? [00:18:28] S1: I was surprised at the initial reaction and not surprised that it took a lot of it back. So it got down. It was nine... Down 9% after hours last night, Meta finished the day down one and a half percent. So
00:18:28 · Michael Batnick, Josh Brown
[00:18:28] S1: I was surprised at the initial reaction and not surprised that it took a lot of it back. So it got down. It was nine... Down 9% after hours last night, Meta finished the day down one and a half percent. So [00:18:40] S0: Do you think that either this or Apple could follow Amazon and take back the entire... Could follow what Amazon did and take back the entire loss once the adults get a chance to process what's really going on? [00:18:53] S1: Amazon followed the same script. It was basically flat the next day. It fell 9% in the after hours, rallied all day, and it opened down 9%, rallied all day and was only down 1%. [00:19:04] S0: So They opened Amazon at 02:31, which is where people were commenting on me personally because I said I liked it the day before. Within two days, it's 02:50. [00:19:16] S1: Yeah. So can Palantir do the same thing? Yeah, for sure. [00:19:24] S0: Would you be surprised to see Palantir trading at 190 tomorrow? Wouldn't be [00:19:30] S1: at all. [00:19:31] S0: You would be? [00:19:31] S1: That... That's aggressive. [00:19:34] S0: From one seventy five? [00:19:35] S1: Yeah. So that's a huge move. I mean, [00:19:38] S0: I guess, because it's thousand It was it was $20.08 two weeks ago. [00:19:42] S1: Alright. So if Uber place plants tomorrow, if Uber opens below $60 I'll buy the stock. [00:19:48] S0: Uber has fallen six out of the last seven earnings reports. It is one of the worst rides in the market just to be long this stock. It almost doesn't matter what their results are. Even when the stock has a great report and it's They've
00:19:48 · Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:19:48] S0: Uber has fallen six out of the last seven earnings reports. It is one of the worst rides in the market just to be long this stock. It almost doesn't matter what their results are. Even when the stock has a great report and it's They've [00:20:08] S1: been good reports. [00:20:09] S0: Right. I'm saying the reaction is good. Oh, they sell. It'll go up 7%. They end up over the next five days, they sell the whole thing off because in the end, they are narratively challenged. [00:20:23] S1: Yeah, it's tough. [00:20:25] S0: They are putting out a ton of press releases about partnerships with autonomous taxi companies, but people do not see them on the streets. And Waymo is full speed ahead. And it almost does not matter what Uber says, even if you get a good one day pop, which from these levels is, I would say, almost likely, what do you have? A day to sell it? Two days to sell it? Because now they report earnings the next day and the next day. So then you're back in the news vacuum where people are like, oh, Uber's fucked. I also think Dara's communication strategy needs to change. It's like, Oh, we report earnings, and I sit with Andrew Ross Sorkin, and I'm, like, so calm and serene. And then, like, that... It's not working, dude. You gotta get on Joe Rogan and talk about robots, you son of a bitch. Let's go. You gotta talk about autonomous taxis as much as Elon does. Nobody nobody cares that you're talking to Andrew Ross Sorkin. You do that every every quarter. The stock always goes down.
00:20:25 · Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:20:25] S0: They are putting out a ton of press releases about partnerships with autonomous taxi companies, but people do not see them on the streets. And Waymo is full speed ahead. And it almost does not matter what Uber says, even if you get a good one day pop, which from these levels is, I would say, almost likely, what do you have? A day to sell it? Two days to sell it? Because now they report earnings the next day and the next day. So then you're back in the news vacuum where people are like, oh, Uber's fucked. I also think Dara's communication strategy needs to change. It's like, Oh, we report earnings, and I sit with Andrew Ross Sorkin, and I'm, like, so calm and serene. And then, like, that... It's not working, dude. You gotta get on Joe Rogan and talk about robots, you son of a bitch. Let's go. You gotta talk about autonomous taxis as much as Elon does. Nobody nobody cares that you're talking to Andrew Ross Sorkin. You do that every every quarter. The stock always goes down. [00:21:37] S1: Yeah. Let's keep it moving. I don't know. Alright. Let's talk about the blown up stocks. So Adam Parker has has it at 19 stocks. Last week, we're down more than 10%. And big names, Reddit, ServiceNow, f five, Intel, Twilio, HPQ, Marvell, FICO, Datadog, Coinbase, Google. I mean, a lot. Like, names that people own. Robinhood. [00:22:01] S0: Disastrous. [00:22:02] S1: Okay. So [00:22:04] S0: Last week last week was... It just was like a a slaughterhouse. Me and communications.
00:22:04 · Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
[00:22:04] S0: Last week last week was... It just was like a a slaughterhouse. Me and communications. [00:22:12] S1: Allow me to blow your face off your... Right off your torso. So there is... I think this feeling that that this has been, like, a horrendous year for individual stocks. Stocks. And I'm not minimizing. Listen, if you bought Sandisk three weeks ago, it hurts. So I had chart kid going to the lab. I asked him a question. I said, hey, how many stocks in 2026 have experienced, not currently, but have experienced a 20% decline. Okay? [00:22:43] S0: Okay. [00:22:44] S1: And I said, and also, is there any way in the world in which we could create that same output for every year as far back as we have data. And so I present to you one of my favorite charts that I've seen in a while. So two thirds of all stocks in the index have had a 20% intra year drawdown. Now if you're just eyeballing this, you might say, alright. Doesn't really look especially bad. Correct. The average Normal. It's normal. It's it's basically right around the average. And, the next chart visually shows that, yeah, it's it's about what it is. We've got [00:23:27] S0: the cluster. [00:23:28] S1: It's it's exactly on trend. It's exactly on trend. So then we said, okay. Well, it feels pretty shitty. Let's take a look at the sector level. And before I reveal this... Actually, you know what? Fuck it. Just reveal it. Look at this. 93% of all tech stocks have experienced a 20% drawdown in the '26.
00:23:28 · Michael Batnick, Josh Brown, S2
[00:23:28] S1: It's it's exactly on trend. It's exactly on trend. So then we said, okay. Well, it feels pretty shitty. Let's take a look at the sector level. And before I reveal this... Actually, you know what? Fuck it. Just reveal it. Look at this. 93% of all tech stocks have experienced a 20% drawdown in the '26. [00:23:49] S0: All of them. I I don't even know what... What is one that hasn't taken offhand? Is it just Apple? [00:23:57] S1: Yeah. It's Apple. It's... What are the other names? It's NVIDIA. [00:24:02] S0: NVIDIA hasn't had a 20% drawdown this year? [00:24:05] S1: I don't think so. I don't know. Maybe not. Maybe not. Maybe was... What else is there? I can't even remember. It doesn't matter. [00:24:11] S2: Broad... Broadcom. [00:24:14] S1: I think Broadcom did it. Oh, here it is. Apple, Teledyne, NetApp, NVIDIA, and Cisco. Oh, NVIDIA was down 19.4. Cisco was down 19.6. So, actually, NVIDIA might have done it, but whatever. That's it. Basically, every tech stock has had a bear [00:24:29] S0: market So this is the message... Are you saying as bad as last week felt for people that own individual stocks and some of the other weeks this year that have been, It's like none of this none of this is cataclysmic historically. This is just like what the the tech stocks do. [00:24:48] S1: And I'll do you one better. Not only is every stock not falling, even though it might feel that way, especially when Intel fell 30%, Reddit fell 30%, Amazon opened That's up a [00:24:58] S0: big one, Intel.