Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
· Daniel Schwartz
[00:00:00] S2: Yeah, that's largely here to stay. It's a multi-hundred billion dollar category. As Alex said, these trends are driving this mid-to-high single digits growth. There's not a lot of private label. The same, I don't know, seven or eight sneaker companies are the same seven or eight sneaker companies in most countries. We like the industry backdrop. This first came up on our screen as a fast-growing, good business some time around 2018, 2019. And we just followed it. We researched the sneaker industry. We followed the company. In 2021, prior to our acquisition of Hunter Douglas, we visited the company, we visited the Skechers company and the team out there. And we introduced ourselves through a mutual friend. As long-term business owner operators, we talked a lot about the global franchise restaurant business. And because they're also selling a lot of their footwear through a global franchise network as well. And we were really impressed with what they were building. I think they were pretty impressed by our businesses and the fact that we had also been in operating roles. And we stayed in touch and we'd visit them a couple times a year, and we toured their DC. And we'd meet them when they'd come to New York for the fall and spring buying seasons. They’d tell us each year, "Oh yeah, we're going to add a billion dollars in sales next year." And every time, a year later, it's like, wow, they did. They added a billion dollars. And sure enough, in the handful of years we knew them, they doubled the size of the business. It's one of these things where, to your point, maybe some people – especially maybe in New York – some people wouldn't know that the brand is as big as it is. But when you start looking into the numbers, if you look back over the last – and I'm not going to cherry pick years, so you choose the years – three year, five years, ten years, seven years, eight years, they would CAGR sales and volume in the double digits. And they had the second highest loyalty rate amongst customers, I think only after Nike. They were the most diversified – they had the highest SKU count – most diversified across all categories of athletic footwear, thereby reducing the risk. There's no hero SKU. There's no Air Jordan or Yeezy, or Samba, or equivalent.
· Alex Behring, Daniel Schwartz, Patrick O'Shaughnessy
[00:00:00] S1: This growth has basically been anchored by great product development. The product is really good and is developed in such a way that it's accessible. It provides great value for the consumer. And then the second thing is, you basically have a great distribution on this business, where you don't rely on big boxes or retailers to get your product out there. The bulk of the sales are done through your own 5,000 plus stores and your sites. That's a big difference. [00:00:00] S2: Basically, you have highly experienced management, who essentially founded the business 30 plus years ago. And Robert and his product team coming up with incredible innovation. And Michael and his store team building big, beautiful stores. And David and the supply chain team making sure that they can deliver the shoes to the stores promptly. [00:00:00] S1: Great leadership in this company. Otherwise, how would you start from scratch and be reaching out closing in on $10 billion dollars? [00:00:00] S2: It's really impressive what the team built over the last 30 plus years. [00:00:00] S0: And so, as the transaction came together, what was the motivation of the other side to sell equity in the business?
· Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Daniel Schwartz, Alex Behring
[00:00:00] S0: And so, as the transaction came together, what was the motivation of the other side to sell equity in the business? [00:00:00] S2: I think they saw that we have been involved in businesses for decades, not years. That we don't buy businesses and then flip them, and that we ourselves have operating experience running our businesses. And so I think the owner-operator and long-term nature of 3G was something they found attractive. And I think, given where they were in their life cycle and succession planning and whatnot, it made sense to explore. [00:00:00] S1: They stayed involved both personally. They'll keep running the business and they will have significant equity in the business because they elected this mixed-consideration election that allows them to stay invested. [00:00:00] S0: From the sounds of it, it sounds pretty well run. It sounds a little different than the Burger King story. And I'm so curious, it sounds like so much of the return that happened in Burger King happened because you did a lot of cleanup work. You made it efficient and then grew it. In this specific case, is it much more oriented towards – let's just make it a little more efficient and focus on growth? What's the balance of consideration?
· Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Alex Behring, Daniel Schwartz
[00:00:00] S0: From the sounds of it, it sounds pretty well run. It sounds a little different than the Burger King story. And I'm so curious, it sounds like so much of the return that happened in Burger King happened because you did a lot of cleanup work. You made it efficient and then grew it. In this specific case, is it much more oriented towards – let's just make it a little more efficient and focus on growth? What's the balance of consideration? [00:00:00] S1: You got it. I mean, we need to keep this thing growing is the first and second and third order of business for us. Because that's what got the company to where it is, and that's what will get the company to where it needs to go. And, of course, there are efficiency opportunities. Yes, there are. And we try our best to address as much of that as possible. Yes, never at the expense of altering that trajectory in any way, shape, or form. Different in this situation than what we had at Burger King, where we needed to actually create that trajectory. It wasn't there. [00:00:00] S2: Each transaction is different. I think they're all – BK, talking about Hunter Douglas, they're all great businesses, and I think there are different ways we were able to kind of help in each. And this business is certainly growing faster than any of the other businesses that we've been involved in.
· Daniel Schwartz, Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Alex Behring
[00:00:00] S2: Each transaction is different. I think they're all – BK, talking about Hunter Douglas, they're all great businesses, and I think there are different ways we were able to kind of help in each. And this business is certainly growing faster than any of the other businesses that we've been involved in. [00:00:00] S0: How much do you care that an acquisition has what I'll call platform potential? BK became RBI, you've got Tim Hortons and Popeyes and Firehouse and these other great franchises that are inside of the original purchase. Is that something that you think about a lot ahead of time, whether or not within Hunter or Skechers, you can go do a bunch of other stuff by virtue of the platform? [00:00:00] S1: As Dan said, these are all different deals. In the case of Hunter, the company in fact has always been doing consolidation-like acquisitions in this space. And I think that continues under our ownership. But here, it's a little bit different. I think that if you look at the footwear sneaker leading companies, for the most part, they're not multi-brand. [00:00:00] S2: They're largely monobrand footwear. [00:00:00] S1: They're monobrand, which by the way, is great in this case. [00:00:00] S2: Well, I'd like to sit here and say the investment memo for Burger King said that it was going to be a platform company and we were great visionaries. [00:00:00] S0: So there was no such memo? [00:00:00] S2: Oh, there was a memo. It just didn't say that. [00:00:00] S1: And there isn't a case where we would make, I don’t know, 20 million times our money.
· Alex Behring, Daniel Schwartz, Patrick O'Shaughnessy
[00:00:00] S1: And there isn't a case where we would make, I don’t know, 20 million times our money. [00:00:00] S2: After five years, this will be worth three times. So, getting into Burger King, we didn't know that was going to be the case. [00:00:00] S1: But having said that, it's a different nature here. [00:00:00] S2: With all these businesses you have to, from the outside in, do enough work that you get comfortable that you believe they're going to be a good business. And you have to hope to own it forever. But this came up in your interview with Matt and Alex – that you only really know and understand a business once you own it and you're inside of it. You only know if it's a forever business once you're really part of it. And we do as much work as we can to maximize the chance that the business we get involved with is going to be the next forever business for us. [00:00:00] S0: The first time I ever heard of your business was probably 16, 17 years ago. I was in my early 20s doing a reading tour through investing, and I came across that "Double Your Profits in Six Months or Less" book about zero-based budgeting. And obviously, 3G is well-known for this method. But I want to ask the good, the bad, and the ugly question about zero-based budgeting. Give us your impression of, first of all, how important the concept is to your success or not. But also, where it works well, where it doesn't, considerations that people listening should have if they want to apply a method like this to a business that they own.