01:30:23 · Gavin Baker, John Coogan
[01:30:23] S2: And every day, I think of a new one to add. That's good. [01:30:27] S1: Yeah. You're giving me a layer of, somebody, the the the senior manager, senior Grock bot. How are you how are you personally dividing, AI agents across your personal life and your professional life? Because a lot of people will have, like, a family office with a personal assistant who manages, you know, getting gifts for their family members or planning birthday parties. And then separately, they'll have an executive assistant who plans their business travel and their calendar for work stuff. And it feels like we might be entering a world where those two merge together and you have one agent that does everything, but we also might wind up in a world where people are using GrockBot at work or Clogcode at work and then Instinct or Muse and Personal and OpenAI has products in both. And they're sort of like a... An array, but it's a decision for everyone. How have you been grappling with it? [01:31:18] S2: Well, I guess you would say I I I guess I have executive assistant privilege because my assistant Susan is exceptional. [01:31:23] S1: Yeah. And she... Yeah. Exactly. [01:31:25] S2: I'm not going anywhere.... Felt the need, you know, to... Yeah. I've I've of course downloaded Instinct and played around with Muse. Sure. But... And I could see they would be super amazing if if I did have someone like Susan in my professional life, but I do. [01:31:43] S1: Yeah. [01:31:45] S2: But for the more professional use cases, [01:31:48] S1: I [01:31:49] S2: mean, Grock Bot has just been transformative
01:31:49 · Gavin Baker, John Coogan
[01:31:49] S2: mean, Grock Bot has just been transformative [01:31:53] S1: Yeah. For me. Yeah. There is Like [01:31:55] S2: so much as... Yeah. Yeah. So much of investing is making sure that the right information gets to the right person at the right time. [01:32:01] S1: Yep. [01:32:01] S2: And Grockbot is so good at that. [01:32:04] S1: Yeah. And there's also something so satisfying with the AI agents of, like, it can be 10PM on a Sunday, and you can kick off, like, a real research effort that, yes, you could probably call someone on your team and say, I need you to... I mean, like, that would be crossing a professional line. All of a sudden, you'd be, like, kind of a hassle of a work... Of a boss, and people might not wanna work there because they're like, yeah. He calls me every time he takes a shower. He has a shower thought, and then I gotta work for six hours. But instead, the AI is like, yeah, boss. I'm right here. Oh, I'd I'd love to look that up for you and spend a 1,000,000 tokens figuring out, you know, with the market size of something or other. But... Yeah. [01:32:42] S2: Well, my policy is actually anybody at a tradies is always welcome to call me anytime on the weekend. I try not to call people [01:32:50] S1: Yeah. [01:32:50] S2: On the weekends. Yeah.
01:32:50 · Gavin Baker, Jordi Hays
[01:32:50] S2: On the weekends. Yeah. [01:32:55] S0: So... How... So I think, like, you know, rewind. This week is, you know, Anthropic s one week, and so there's there's a lot of focus there. Last week, it felt like the focus was, like, the general attention was towards how much supply is coming online next year, how many gigawatts SpaceX is gonna bring online. How are you... What's your, you know, generally you've maintained a sort of bullishness that some other people on the timeline have lost here and there. But how are you processing how the industry can sort of absorb all of that supply if we hit the higher end of some of the ranges being discussed? And and and is it just Jevan's paradox, you know, again and again and again and again until we finally... Every everyone says like, you know, everyone likes to say it, but it's hard to fully internalize.
01:33:55 · Gavin Baker, John Coogan
[01:33:55] S2: Yeah, I think that's I think that's right. It's it's easy to say. It's it's hard to internalize and believe. And October was kind of been a strange month because the price to rent, essentially any kind of a GPU has gone up every day. So the spot market for compute is getting tighter. And it's not just the spot market, you know, it is... I do love reading these primers on x from, you know, commodity and macro investors about these super complicated concepts called backwardation and contango Yeah. And what they might mean for the forward curve of compute and the future price of compute. You know, these are contango backwardation. But, you know, silicon data which I do think is, you know, we're... My firm is an investor in them but I I do think they're the most authoritative data source. Carmen Lee, the founder, stood up at GTC and said that the compute market is now in contango. [01:34:55] S1: Mhmm.
01:34:55 · John Coogan, Gavin Baker
[01:34:55] S1: Mhmm. [01:34:56] S2: The... You know, the forward... It's not just that the spot market is tight. If you want a cluster a year from now, you have to pay a lot of money. Yeah. And then this is and this is maybe another, you know, discontinuity between public and private markets. But just the number of companies we have in our portfolio who are like, okay, we got a cluster of 4,000 Blackwells and, you know, and we got it in May or June '26 and we wanna bring on another cluster of 4,000 in September 2027. Yeah. And they're shocked by how much more they have to pay in the future. And it's not like they're... Everybody is unaware of this. Everybody's aware of the supply that's coming on. But even with all of that supply coming on, it is hard for the companies in our portfolio to find compute even well into '27. Mhmm. So for, you know, all the commodity experts who are focused on backwardation and what that implied, I got news for you. We're not in backwardation anymore. [01:36:05] S1: Mhmm.
01:36:05 · John Coogan, Gavin Baker, Jordi Hays
[01:36:05] S1: Mhmm. [01:36:05] S2: And then I do think as far as how much capacity is going to come online, one thing that I think is actually healthy about what's happened in these financing markets is I hope it concentrates capacity and supply in the competent operators where they can finance it through prepayments. You know, you can kind of finance these GPU purchases two ways. By the way, CoreWeave is great. CoreWeave runs GPUs well. They bring a lot... They they are very very good. They just sadly locked in a vast amount of compute and long term contracts that are now way way under market. You know? And I should just [01:36:45] S1: say So they sold their they sold their GPUs for fixed prices, and that's why they're getting hammered right now. It's not that they don't have compute. They're not bringing it on. They have the semi analysis diamond tier. Everyone knows that clusters Yeah. Work. They're good. They are reliable, but they just sold for too cheap, and they should have hold... Held on or had variable [01:37:06] S0: pricing. Is is you think Elon studied that and said, like, we're not gonna make that same mistake, and that's why they're adopting this more short term contract. [01:37:15] S2: Yeah. Don't... Elon is a first principles thinker. I don't think he was probably studying CoreWeave or Nevious or anyone Yeah. He was probably reasoning from first principles. But the conclusion he came to is prices are going up. We... If we are willing to sell into the spot market, we can have paybacks well under a year. Yeah. Get big prepayments. [01:37:37] S1: Yep.