00:10:25 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:10:25] S1: percentage of their paying users? Yes. What percentage of their paying users do you think are paying for the product because it's a companion to them? [00:10:33] S0: Because it's four because of four o specifically. Like like, how bad would churn have been? How bad was churn? Well, it was clearly bad enough that they that they did something about it, which is the crazy thing. Because most of the time, like, when it it was typically a a a revealed preference versus stated preference. So when Facebook updated the news feed and instead of just having you log in to Facebook and go to someone else's page to find what they were up to, instead, they surfaced the news feed. They aggregated everything together. Everyone was like, I hate this new Facebook. And they went on Facebook to complain. Right? And so there was a there there was a [00:11:12] S1: User minutes probably went up [00:11:14] S0: to the did right. Go up. Exactly. And so that's why and we talked to some folks at Facebook at the time around this. They they stayed the course. The question is, yeah, like, how bad was churn? Because it it it's weird that we're still having this conversation three months out. Do you like the zombie ant fungus analogy? Jake Jacob Rintimaki was, was posting this, saying that there's this weird there's this very weird dynamic where, specifically, humans are using four point zero to protest the deletion of four point zero. And so it's very much like the AI is using the human as a host. Yeah. Like, the the a the human is the bot for
00:11:14 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:11:14] S0: to the did right. Go up. Exactly. And so that's why and we talked to some folks at Facebook at the time around this. They they stayed the course. The question is, yeah, like, how bad was churn? Because it it it's weird that we're still having this conversation three months out. Do you like the zombie ant fungus analogy? Jake Jacob Rintimaki was, was posting this, saying that there's this weird there's this very weird dynamic where, specifically, humans are using four point zero to protest the deletion of four point zero. And so it's very much like the AI is using the human as a host. Yeah. Like, the the a the human is the bot for [00:11:58] S1: This is why I think it's overall under discussed. [00:12:00] S0: Yes. Yes. Yes. But at the same time, I I was I was laughing because I was like, that Photoshop app, Photoshop Mix, like, I'm complaining about that. If I go and make a meme in that about protesting the deletion of Photoshop Mix, like, is am I am I the zombie aunt for Photoshop? Right? Like, like, it's it's not exactly the same. I agree that the that the AI thing is weirder, but it's somewhat similar. It's somewhat similar. Right? What do you think?
00:12:00 · John Coogan, Tyler
[00:12:00] S0: Yes. Yes. Yes. But at the same time, I I was I was laughing because I was like, that Photoshop app, Photoshop Mix, like, I'm complaining about that. If I go and make a meme in that about protesting the deletion of Photoshop Mix, like, is am I am I the zombie aunt for Photoshop? Right? Like, like, it's it's not exactly the same. I agree that the that the AI thing is weirder, but it's somewhat similar. It's somewhat similar. Right? What do you think? [00:12:29] S2: So so just back on the churn question for a second. Yes. I I don't actually think churn was that high because Yeah. The the reason four o was originally deprecated was the GPT five release, which was August 7. Yep. And then the tweet of Sam Altman saying we're bringing back four o was August 8. So it was one day later. Yeah. So unless like a massive amount of people quit that day, which I I mean, maybe that's very likely. [00:12:53] S0: I think that's what happened. [00:12:54] S2: You think it was just one day of like [00:12:56] S0: Why would you bring it back so fast if you didn't see, like, fast [00:12:59] S2: Twitter were saying [00:13:00] S0: sell off. Like like, normally, you'd be like like, if it if you saw if you saw, like, if you saw, like, a percent or 0.1 of your of your audience, like, float out the door, you'd probably be like, oh, these people are just sour grapes. They'll be back in a week. Right? But if, like, 10% of your customers, like, cancel on day one, you're like, oh, we gotta stop the bleeding today. Like, let's bring this Yeah.
00:13:00 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:13:00] S0: sell off. Like like, normally, you'd be like like, if it if you saw if you saw, like, if you saw, like, a percent or 0.1 of your of your audience, like, float out the door, you'd probably be like, oh, these people are just sour grapes. They'll be back in a week. Right? But if, like, 10% of your customers, like, cancel on day one, you're like, oh, we gotta stop the bleeding today. Like, let's bring this Yeah. [00:13:26] S1: And that's that's why was asking if they And that's weird. 20,000,000 paid users [00:13:29] S0: And that's weird. [00:13:29] S1: Five percent of them churned, and these are people that are willing to [00:13:33] S0: It pay a seems unbelievable to me. It seems unbelievable to me because I don't use this product this way. [00:13:38] S1: But that would have been that could have been, like, effectively 200,000,000 of m r MRR that just evaporated [00:13:44] S0: It's into the whole It's possible. And also, there is just the fact of by putting four point zero under the legacy models and tucked away, to your point of, like, if it's $200,000,000 of ARR just to, like, leave the servers running over there [00:13:59] S1: Well, I was saying could have been a million like, roughly a million people that were [00:14:04] S0: This is paying complete spitballing. Specute Totally speculate. But it could have [00:14:07] S1: been a massive number.
00:14:07 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:14:07] S1: been a massive number. [00:14:08] S0: If if you have a million people, and they're just gonna want the same model forever on cheaper and cheaper hardware that you can deprecate, bullish for depreciation rates. Let's hear it. Depreciation schedules should extend. Right? Right? Let's go. We we got room to run. You know what I'm saying. Right? Yeah. Yeah. You shouldn't be you don't need to depreciate them over two years. You don't need to depreciate them over five years because you'll still be inferencing four o in thirty years for these people that are like, yeah. It's not this. It's that. I love that four o so much. [00:14:40] S1: Yeah. It it will be. [00:14:41] S0: Will arrive, and people will still be like, yeah. But it's not four o. I'm in love with four o. [00:14:45] S1: Yeah. I think I think it'll be interesting to if there's, like, five years from now [00:14:50] S0: Yeah. [00:14:50] S1: It's like, here's the five most popular friends that are models. And there's four point zero, and there's some others. Yeah. And people end up well, like, we'll see.
00:14:50 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:14:50] S1: It's like, here's the five most popular friends that are models. And there's four point zero, and there's some others. Yeah. And people end up well, like, we'll see. [00:15:00] S0: No. It's a good point. Anyway, let's move on to some other stuff. But first, let me tell you about Privy. Wallet infrastructure for every bank. Privy makes it easy to build and encrypt our rails, securely spin up white label wallets, sign transactions, integrate on freight infrastructure all through one simple API. And let me also tell you about Cognition, the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. Double kill, of course. Jeff Bezos is back in the arena. Jeff Bezos creates an AI startup where he will be co CEO, and it's called project Prometheus. [00:15:35] S1: John, what happens to Prometheus?