01:33:59 · John Coogan, Stacy Rasgon, Luca Ferrari, Jordi Hays
[01:33:59] S0: Yes. Yes. Want you to react to this Suttrini post here. [01:34:04] S6: Oh, sure. [01:34:04] S0: Says, just reviewed a bunch of stuff for our November macro memo. We might low key be going into a recession, boys. No clue if this matters at all for stock prices anymore, though. [01:34:16] S6: That's a good point. You could argue some parts of the and I'm I'm not a macro guy. [01:34:21] S0: I'm not [01:34:21] S6: an economist. However, you could argue some parts of the economy are already there. Right? I mean, people use the phrase K shaped recovery, [01:34:28] S5: which is [01:34:28] S6: sort of interesting. But I think especially the lower half of the population is not actually doing all that well. Right? And we've actually seen that more recently in a lot of just not the semiconductor reports, but a lot of the consumer reports and the restaurants and Auto loans. Yeah. So there's probably parts of the world that are already there. And clearly, the infrastructure spending, the AI spending has been supporting GDP. [01:34:56] S0: Yeah. [01:34:57] S6: And it's been supporting the stock market. I mean, Nvidia's, I can't even remember, 8%, 9% of the S and P now. Yeah. So, yeah. [01:35:02] S0: It's remarkable. [01:35:03] S6: We we may be there already. Yeah. [01:35:05] S1: So we had a we we had a thesis that that NVIDIA's gonna do just fine this this earning cycle. Specifically, the only reason, not not just overall demand, but that Jensen was slamming beer. [01:35:17] S0: This is the most quantitative research. You can't get this. He's not
01:35:17 · John Coogan, Stacy Rasgon
[01:35:17] S0: This is the most quantitative research. You can't get this. He's not [01:35:20] S6: acting like a CEO that's, like, really worried about his quarter. I don't know that he would generally care anyways. However, they just did an event in DC a couple weeks ago called GTC. And I mean, he put a slide up behind him that basically said numbers next year are too low. What the slide said, it said they had $500,000,000,000 in cumulative orders for Blackwell and Rubin. Blackwell is their current generation of AI servers, and Rubin's the next generation. Yeah. 500,000,000,000 cumulative across 2025 and 2026. Mhmm. And they said we've already I I can't remember. It was, $2,020,000,000 chips for orders. And they said we've we've we've shipped six to date. So we got 14,000,000 left. They've they've got five quarters. You you can sort of figure out how much it is, and you can compare that to where the numbers are. And he's basically saying numbers are too low. So I'm I'm not terribly worried going into the quarter on Wednesday. Now, you know, with with stocks, it's it's always not just the numbers. Right? It's it's the numbers relative to the expectations. [01:36:15] S0: Totally. [01:36:15] S6: I think everybody expects it to be good. Yeah. So we'll see how how good he can make it. [01:36:19] S0: It does feel like we've entered a period over the last month maybe where even beating would still result in a sell off? Is that just everything priced to perfection? What's going on there?
01:36:19 · John Coogan, Stacy Rasgon, Jordi Hays
[01:36:19] S0: It does feel like we've entered a period over the last month maybe where even beating would still result in a sell off? Is that just everything priced to perfection? What's going on there? [01:36:31] S6: Yeah. I mean, especially in the AI side, there's been you know, the sentiment ebbs and flows. Yeah. Right? And and we've been in in a bit of an ebb. Yeah. And there's been a lot of stuff. You know, we had we had Burry's comments about a GPU lifetime and depreciation. Had a couple to be honest, few what I would call self owns on the part of the OpenAI folks, Old man and Scott Freyer, a little unnecessary angst that they They [01:36:54] S1: did that to inspire themselves to have to work harder. [01:36:57] S6: Maybe. Maybe. I guess. You you know, it's [01:36:59] S1: it's fine.
01:36:59 · Jordi Hays, Stacy Rasgon, John Tennant
[01:36:59] S1: it's fine. [01:37:02] S6: And and you you you early guys, are we in the bubble or not? Sure. I I mean, so bubbles are as as bubbles are. Right? I mean, you can look at a lot of things. You can look at valuations. I mean, NVIDIA is mid-20s price to afford earnings right now. We haven't got anywhere near crazy yet. I mean, I'll say the same thing I've said since this started, and it really got started. ChatGibis showed up in November '2, and NVIDIA's sort of print heard around the world was May '23. That's that's when it started. And even then, people worried about, okay, 2024 is gonna be off. Right? I'll I'll say the same thing I said then. At some point, you know, nothing goes up into the right forever. At some point, you'll have a digestion or an air pocket or it's not now. It's clearly not now. That's all I can say. I don't know when, but it's not now. It's not this year. Doesn't look like it's next year. Then all of these projects that OpenAI is signing with Broadcom and NVIDIA and even AMD, They don't even start to ship until the 2026. [01:37:57] S4: So [01:37:58] S6: at least from a spending standpoint, from what we consider, it's probably not 2027 either. Now we'll see what the stocks do. Like, they tend to be anticipatory. But in terms of, like, an air pocket or something in spending, I'm I'm not really all that worried yet. Yeah. When? I don't know. But, like, it's not now.
01:37:58 · Stacy Rasgon, Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[01:37:58] S6: at least from a spending standpoint, from what we consider, it's probably not 2027 either. Now we'll see what the stocks do. Like, they tend to be anticipatory. But in terms of, like, an air pocket or something in spending, I'm I'm not really all that worried yet. Yeah. When? I don't know. But, like, it's not now. [01:38:13] S1: Yeah. Do you do you how much have you, subscribed to this idea of, like, rolling rolling bubbles? So like right now, it seems like we've had we've had like explosion, you know, a lot of excitement around neo clouds this year. All, you know, pretty much all of them have sold off a ton in the last month. Maybe partly because of some of the comments out of the opening. I can't have been lack of lack of confidence. [01:38:35] S0: Yeah. [01:38:36] S1: But at the same time, Seagate, Western Digital, these other companies are up tremendously. I mean,
01:38:36 · Jordi Hays, Stacy Rasgon, John Coogan
[01:38:36] S1: But at the same time, Seagate, Western Digital, these other companies are up tremendously. I mean, [01:38:42] S6: yeah, the storage, they're covered by a colleague of mine now. But I mean, just go up 10% every day, right? But that's the thing. It all really comes down to demand. Demand is off the charts. Nobody can get enough compute. The neo clouds are all even with CorWeave, there was they a bit of a delay. They just don't have the capacity, right? They pushed out a little bit. It's still there. Again, the storage guys are ripping because the memory prices are going through the roof because there's so much there's a lack of supply relative to demand. All we've seen from the hyperscalers is CapEx numbers going up and up and up and up. Like nobody can get enough compute right That's where we are. And I think that is so the overarching that's the overarching thesis like either way. You Like go back to the question about GPU [01:39:29] S0: Yeah.