00:44:52 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:44:52] S1: Yeah. [00:44:52] S0: Wow. Yeah. One month, it's down 46%. That it's at a 36,000,000,000 market cap. Yeah. It's so it's so odd because, like, yeah, when you when you look at when you look at just this one name, it feels like, okay. Like, it is over. Like, AI if you told me, like, oh, yeah. Like, the the the company that really is, like, the most indexed to the AI wave, is down 46%, I'd be like, wow. So this is, like, the total popping of the bubble, complete pop. Like, it's over. It's like like, when the metaverse bubble popped, when, you know, when when crypto bubbles pop, like, Bitcoin trades down 50%, 60%, like and then it's over, and then you start rebuilding. Right? And yet and yet the overall market feels nowhere near popped. Right? Like, I mean, I'm sure NVIDIA is down somewhat down 5% past five days, but NVIDIA over the last month is still up. Over the past six months, it's up 40%. And so you would you would expect NVIDIA to be maybe, like, you know, selling off more. CoreWeave is just in a is is just in a unique position, like, truly truly rough month for that company. [00:46:08] S1: Yeah. As well as Core Scientific, which Core we've tried to buy Yeah. Was rejected. Yeah. Core Scientific has traded down 24 in the past month, which Leopold also had built the position in. I wonder we'll see.
00:46:08 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:46:08] S1: Yeah. As well as Core Scientific, which Core we've tried to buy Yeah. Was rejected. Yeah. Core Scientific has traded down 24 in the past month, which Leopold also had built the position in. I wonder we'll see. [00:46:21] S0: Yeah. I wonder I wonder what the thesis on CoreWeave is. I mean, obviously, the company is has a great product. Like, Semi Analysis has has ranked them platinum on ClusterMax. It's a it's clearly a a real company with real with real products and services and holdings. Maybe the market, it was just overheated. Maybe it's pulling back. It's kind of unclear. But if you wanna go in, analyze a bunch of 13 f's, do it in Julius, the AI data analyst. Connect your data. Ask questions in plain English. Get insights in seconds. No coding required. Speaking of other data [00:46:57] S1: So he also he he also added positions just in Western Digital Oh, he's getting Seagate. And I was just going through [00:47:06] S0: On the hard drive trade, gotta store that data somewhere and potentially [00:47:11] S1: Modine Manufacturing.
00:47:11 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:47:11] S1: Modine Manufacturing. [00:47:13] S0: Okay. I I'd be interested to know what he's thinking about in the in the energy side on the the gas turbine side. Right? Isn't that what semi analysis was drawing the most attention to? Feels like they've been very ahead of the curve on identifying Yeah. Companies that are basically already supply constrained. And if you just look and if you look deeper into what's going on in their book of business Yep. They're about to flip to incredibly high margins. Because once once everything goes out of stock, this company can just all of a sudden say, yeah. Actually act actually, we need 60% margins. People will be like, yeah. No problem. Like, you're the [00:47:56] S1: I I want to buy as much [00:47:57] S0: as possible. [00:47:57] S1: Yeah. So the story from situational awareness is like all the neo clouds have sold off a ton Yeah. Where we've [00:48:03] S0: Situation room here. Hiring. Saying Satya unloaded his risk onto the neo clouds. It's a game of sort of, I don't know, musical chairs. Yeah. And so that's Yeah. [00:48:14] S1: Like the deal with the deal with Microsoft [00:48:17] S0: Yeah. [00:48:18] S1: Just wasn't it like seemed to be like little to no margin. [00:48:23] S0: Yeah. [00:48:24] S1: But anyway, so if you so the Neo Clouds have also sold off, but Lumentum Holdings is up 46% in the past month, which he added. Western Digital up 25% and Seagate up 14%. So Yeah. He's making up for it.
00:48:24 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Stacy Rasgon
[00:48:24] S1: But anyway, so if you so the Neo Clouds have also sold off, but Lumentum Holdings is up 46% in the past month, which he added. Western Digital up 25% and Seagate up 14%. So Yeah. He's making up for it. [00:48:40] S0: Yeah. Yeah. It's it's the birth of a new of a new bond. It's just like it's it's the very, very hot part of the cycle. I think everyone's wondering, like, how big will this be in a decade? That's a that's a big question. It's a it's it's a very exciting time and but you gotta stick the landing. And I think people are I'm sort of rooting for him. I think he's I think he's gonna do it. [00:49:05] S1: Yeah. The question is like, are like, is it gonna be a true hedge fund? Like, he gonna make money [00:49:11] S0: In a down market? [00:49:12] S1: In a a in [00:49:13] S6: a correction. [00:49:15] S0: I mean, yeah. I bet we're gonna open up one of these 13 f's and be like, wow. He's short everything now. Okay. And then and then you're see everything sell off, and it'll be like, wow. Another That [00:49:25] S1: would be much higher signal than PT in a in a, you know, $75,000,000 fund.
00:49:31 · John Coogan
[00:49:31] S0: Oh, totally. Totally. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. There there there's some Blue Owl news in the Financial Times. Blue Owl investors faced hefty faced hefty losses as credit fund blocks exit ahead of merger. Blue Owl has blocked redemptions in one of its earliest private credit funds as it merges with a larger vehicle overseen by the asset manager in a deal that could leave investors with large losses. They could lose about 20% of their holdings. The deal underscores the risk that retail investors have taken in pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into private debt funds carrying limited liquidity rights. It comes as scrutiny builds on the valuations and returns on private credit funds, which have caused publicly listed debt funds to sell off and trade at steep discounts to the stated value of their assets. And so we we we talked about this, I think, on Friday, but Blue Owl has been selling off this year, and they said we should be performing better than everyone else. But it feels like a little bit of the narrative might be around liquidity here. Earlier this month, Blue Owl told its shareholders that it planned to merge Blue Owl Capital Corporation two fund, which has a billion dollars in assets, with its OBDC fund, which has 17,000,000,000 in assets. BOCC two investors are being asked to exchange their shares in the private share private fund for shares in OBDC at the stated net asset value of both funds. However, OBDC trades on public markets at a discount of about 20% to the stated value of assets because of the liquidity problem.
00:51:04 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:51:04] S1: Well and because it's possible that [00:51:07] S0: the People [00:51:07] S1: are it doesn't feel like they're pricing the assets correctly. [00:51:10] S0: Potentially. [00:51:11] S1: There's some discount.