00:38:20 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Stacy Rasgon
[00:38:20] S1: No comment, but I'll make a statement. [00:38:21] S0: I'll make a statement. No comment, but I'll make a statement. I do do wanna have some folks on to debate, like, whether or not I I was thinking we should invite John Gruber on because he wrote this piece like Something Is Rotten and Cupertino, all about the failure of of Apple intelligence. And when we talked to Mark Gurman, we saw like, Gurman was also saying, like, yes. Like, Cupertino really was shook by the like, dropping the ball on on Apple Intelligence by missing AI. But I I still wonder if all of this is is there's all these rumors. Oh, Tim Cook's gotta go. Imagine if you [00:38:59] S1: post that picture if if we see a real correction in AI. Yeah. Just post caption, do nothing, win. [00:39:05] S0: Do nothing, win. Yeah. [00:39:07] S1: Stock stock pumps 10%. [00:39:10] S0: I missed artificial intelligence, but I didn't miss getting this fit off. I'm having a good time. What else is, in the news? Vanta. Automate compliance, manage risk Founder. Prove trust with AI. Vanta helps you get compliant fast, and they don't stop there. Their AI and automation powers everything from evidence collection and continuous monitoring to security reviews and vendor risk. There's a bunch of more news. [00:39:32] S1: To talk about paper hands. [00:39:33] S6: Paper hands. This [00:39:37] S0: is the fakest of news. Get ready for the fake news hour, buddy. What Peter [00:39:41] S1: Thiel sold his stake. Entire stake [00:39:44] S0: Everything. In [00:39:45] S1: video. And 76 percent of his friend's company Tesla.
00:39:50 · John Coogan
[00:39:50] S0: Okay. Yes. So this is from a so this is from one of those 13 f's disclosure form with the SEC from Teal Macro, his fund, his his some of the money that he runs. But, of course, it's very people read into 13 f's all the time for a variety of reasons, and they sort of get it wrong a lot, it seems like. And so zero hedge sort of sums this up where he says, Peter Thiel net worth, 20,000,000,000. Teal macro AUM, 75,000,000. Like, what's going on? What make it make sense? And it's almost certainly because of disclosure rules. Like, what needs to be disclosed, might only be a fraction of what's actually going on there. So, odd to read into it, but at the same time, I think the reason why this made headlines is just because it feels like something that might happen. Like like, if if instead this headline had been, oh, like, Peter Thiel went on a podcast and said that he thinks the AI bubble is top has reached the top. Everyone would just be like, oh, yeah. Like, that's feels like people have been waiting for someone to call the top. And so they're really, really, like Yeah. Digging in for top signals and top calls. And this slight change in the in the, in the 13 f. Even though the odd part is that if you actually read the 13 f, which, of course, is just this, like, $75,000,000 slice for whatever for for whatever reason, Even if you dig even if you read that, like, the other three holdings are still big tech companies. So it's not, like, super bearish. It's like there's some Microsoft in there. I think there's some Apple in there.
00:41:32 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan, Stacy Rasgon
[00:41:32] S1: Yeah. And the Teal Matt the Teal Macro team is trying to generate the greatest returns that they possibly can. [00:41:39] S0: They go viral. They're trying to go as viral as possible. So [00:41:43] S1: They don't care about IRR. They just wanna go viral. [00:41:45] S0: They just wanna go viral. [00:41:46] S1: They're just trying to create headlines. No. They're trying to generate returns. [00:41:49] S0: Yeah. Finishing that deal. [00:41:50] S1: It's possible to sell a stock that you're that you're still bullish on or at least that you expect, like, amount of price appreciation [00:41:59] S6: Yeah. [00:41:59] S1: Or even long term price appreciation. [00:42:01] S0: And, also, like, there's all these weird, like, tax, you know, implications of, like, selling one thing. Like, it's not even clear that this is all of his NVIDIA. Like, no one's no one's gotten to the bottom of that. I don't know if they ever will. But people love people love deep diving 13 f's. And they are so and they are fun. Situational awareness [00:42:18] S1: is certainly a bull market in thirteen [00:42:21] S0: Thirteen f deep dives. [00:42:22] S1: Deep dives.
00:42:22 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:42:22] S1: Deep dives. [00:42:23] S0: Let's let's talk about the situational awareness 13 f. But first, let me tell you about graphite. Dev code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship ship higher quality software faster. So situational awareness 13 f for q '3 dropped Friday. Nick Carter broke it down. Massive new 500,000,000 position in CoreWeave, which has been down a bunch, but they're going in. Big adds to core, c o r z and iron, added some new miners. Intel Intel calls remain unchanged. Trimmed Broadcom, a couple other names here. And, Nick is giving it some, some context. I believe Nick was the fir one of the first investors in CoreWeave. Correct? And [00:43:08] S1: Angel. [00:43:09] S0: Angel in CoreWeave. What an insane investment. Congrats to him. So he says all these numbers are as are are as of 09/30, many of these names sold off since then. Portfolio value counting notional value of options doubled from 2,120,000,000.00 to 4,150,000,000.00, mostly due to 1,500,000,000.0 of new cash. So [00:43:33] S1: Let's give it up for new cash injection. [00:43:34] S0: We gotta ring the What a massive, massive fund. But but the but the fund did generate 700,000,000 in appreciation. So a huge, huge, huge gain.
00:43:34 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:43:34] S0: We gotta ring the What a massive, massive fund. But but the but the fund did generate 700,000,000 in appreciation. So a huge, huge, huge gain. [00:43:53] S1: Yeah. Concerning guess again, last time 13F dropped, remember, people were reading too much into it. And they were like, wow, he was long. Intel, Like, is he cooked? And then they did intel did the deal Yep. With the government and it and it absolutely ripped. This 13 f, he you know, so situational awareness had a half a billion dollar new core weave position as of basically the October. And, obviously, Core Weave has been, down into the right, down 46% in the past month. But [00:44:40] S0: Wait. Down 46% in the past month? [00:44:42] S1: Yes. I thought it was in the [00:44:43] S0: past, like, three months or something. [00:44:45] S1: No. Past month. Woah. So that position is probably not [00:44:50] S0: It's down 5% today. [00:44:52] S1: Yeah.
00:44:52 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:44:52] S1: Yeah. [00:44:52] S0: Wow. Yeah. One month, it's down 46%. That it's at a 36,000,000,000 market cap. Yeah. It's so it's so odd because, like, yeah, when you when you look at when you look at just this one name, it feels like, okay. Like, it is over. Like, AI if you told me, like, oh, yeah. Like, the the the company that really is, like, the most indexed to the AI wave, is down 46%, I'd be like, wow. So this is, like, the total popping of the bubble, complete pop. Like, it's over. It's like like, when the metaverse bubble popped, when, you know, when when crypto bubbles pop, like, Bitcoin trades down 50%, 60%, like and then it's over, and then you start rebuilding. Right? And yet and yet the overall market feels nowhere near popped. Right? Like, I mean, I'm sure NVIDIA is down somewhat down 5% past five days, but NVIDIA over the last month is still up. Over the past six months, it's up 40%. And so you would you would expect NVIDIA to be maybe, like, you know, selling off more. CoreWeave is just in a is is just in a unique position, like, truly truly rough month for that company. [00:46:08] S1: Yeah. As well as Core Scientific, which Core we've tried to buy Yeah. Was rejected. Yeah. Core Scientific has traded down 24 in the past month, which Leopold also had built the position in. I wonder we'll see.