00:13:00 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:13:00] S0: sell off. Like like, normally, you'd be like like, if it if you saw if you saw, like, if you saw, like, a percent or 0.1 of your of your audience, like, float out the door, you'd probably be like, oh, these people are just sour grapes. They'll be back in a week. Right? But if, like, 10% of your customers, like, cancel on day one, you're like, oh, we gotta stop the bleeding today. Like, let's bring this Yeah. [00:13:26] S1: And that's that's why was asking if they And that's weird. 20,000,000 paid users [00:13:29] S0: And that's weird. [00:13:29] S1: Five percent of them churned, and these are people that are willing to [00:13:33] S0: It pay a seems unbelievable to me. It seems unbelievable to me because I don't use this product this way. [00:13:38] S1: But that would have been that could have been, like, effectively 200,000,000 of m r MRR that just evaporated [00:13:44] S0: It's into the whole It's possible. And also, there is just the fact of by putting four point zero under the legacy models and tucked away, to your point of, like, if it's $200,000,000 of ARR just to, like, leave the servers running over there [00:13:59] S1: Well, I was saying could have been a million like, roughly a million people that were [00:14:04] S0: This is paying complete spitballing. Specute Totally speculate. But it could have [00:14:07] S1: been a massive number.
00:14:07 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:14:07] S1: been a massive number. [00:14:08] S0: If if you have a million people, and they're just gonna want the same model forever on cheaper and cheaper hardware that you can deprecate, bullish for depreciation rates. Let's hear it. Depreciation schedules should extend. Right? Right? Let's go. We we got room to run. You know what I'm saying. Right? Yeah. Yeah. You shouldn't be you don't need to depreciate them over two years. You don't need to depreciate them over five years because you'll still be inferencing four o in thirty years for these people that are like, yeah. It's not this. It's that. I love that four o so much. [00:14:40] S1: Yeah. It it will be. [00:14:41] S0: Will arrive, and people will still be like, yeah. But it's not four o. I'm in love with four o. [00:14:45] S1: Yeah. I think I think it'll be interesting to if there's, like, five years from now [00:14:50] S0: Yeah. [00:14:50] S1: It's like, here's the five most popular friends that are models. And there's four point zero, and there's some others. Yeah. And people end up well, like, we'll see.
00:14:50 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:14:50] S1: It's like, here's the five most popular friends that are models. And there's four point zero, and there's some others. Yeah. And people end up well, like, we'll see. [00:15:00] S0: No. It's a good point. Anyway, let's move on to some other stuff. But first, let me tell you about Privy. Wallet infrastructure for every bank. Privy makes it easy to build and encrypt our rails, securely spin up white label wallets, sign transactions, integrate on freight infrastructure all through one simple API. And let me also tell you about Cognition, the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. Double kill, of course. Jeff Bezos is back in the arena. Jeff Bezos creates an AI startup where he will be co CEO, and it's called project Prometheus. [00:15:35] S1: John, what happens to Prometheus?
00:15:35 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:15:35] S1: John, what happens to Prometheus? [00:15:38] S0: He had a really good run. Prometheus everyone seems to focus on the first part of the story with Prometheus when they name their AI project. So Mark Zuckerberg named his, his AI data center cluster project Prometheus as well. Now Jeff Bezos has also called an AI project Prometheus. People love the Prometheus brand. No one can seem to properly trademark it. I don't know what's going on in the legal division of of, you know, the Bezos Bezos family office or whatever But, is going on they're both using Prometheus, and it's a very odd story. Because, in Greek mythology, Prometheus is a titan responsible for creating humanity in its earliest days. You might have seen the aliens movie Prometheus. Great film. He defied the Olympian gods by taking fire from them and giving it to humanity in the form of technology. And so it's a great it's a great analogy. We're stealing fire from the gods and giving it to us. AI is fire, and this is what we're gonna steal, I guess. And, and so he creates knowledge and and civilization. But [00:16:45] S1: Fast forward a little bit. [00:16:46] S0: Fast forward a little bit. He gets punished for this. It it's not a good ending for Prometheus. He gets punished for stealing fire from Olympus and giving it to humans. [00:16:55] S1: How does he get punished? [00:16:57] S0: He gets bound to a rock, and an eagle, which is the emblem of Zeus, is sent to eat his liver, every day. And then it would grow back
00:16:57 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Tyler
[00:16:57] S0: He gets bound to a rock, and an eagle, which is the emblem of Zeus, is sent to eat his liver, every day. And then it would grow back [00:17:06] S1: Baylor in the chat says, everybody wanna steal fire from the gods? Don't nobody wanna have their liver eaten by an eagle for eternity? That is true, Tyler. [00:17:17] S0: So his liver grows back overnight only to be eaten again the next day in an ongoing cycle. And I was thinking about, like like like, what is what is the metaphor here? Let's continue to extend the metaphor. Like, what is the liver in this metaphor of, like, building big AI projects? And then what is the eagle? Is it possible that the eagle is, like, Blue Owl It's more of an owl. [00:17:37] S1: Credit credit. [00:17:37] S0: Private credit. Maybe Blue Owl is coming and eating your liver. And the liver is the free cash flow that you had on your balance sheet. Because if you're one of these hyperscalers, you have a lot of free cash flow, but less and less as you sign these big debt deals. Yep. And and the and the blue owl comes and eats your free cash flow every day for all of eternity. And eventually eventually, there is a little bit of a of a reprieve because Hercules comes and breaks the chains of Prometheus. And Prometheus is freed, and his liver regrows and Hercules slays the eagle. And so I think obviously in this analogy what did you say? Who would be Hercules in this analogy? [00:18:23] S2: Jerome Powell.
00:18:23 · Tyler, John Coogan, Jordi Hays, John Tennant
[00:18:23] S2: Jerome Powell. [00:18:24] S0: Jerome Powell, who comes in and slays the debt dealers with low interest rates. Right? And so and so clearly, can see where this metaphor is going. They're all they're all winking. Both both Zuck and Bezos are winking and saying, hey. Hey. Come lower interest rates. Save us because we're about to get our livers eaten because with our Promethean startups. Anyway, let's actually dig into what he's doing because it's not just a found it feels late to get into AI. It feels late to get into foundation modeling and training runs. [00:18:57] S1: Big Euro summer. He's back. He's back. Back in the driver's seat. [00:19:02] S0: Went to Coachella. He went to he went to a few different big events. It's possible he got back from those events, started opening up the newspaper, realized [00:19:12] S1: what's on. [00:19:13] S0: AI is AI is big. I gotta get in on this. I gotta get in on You [00:19:17] S1: ran a deep research report? What did I miss? [00:19:18] S4: What did [00:19:19] S0: I miss? [00:19:19] S1: What did I miss? Well Anyways, in The New York Times, Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, is throwing his money and time into an artificial intelligence startup that he will help manage as its co chief executive. I feel like co CEO this is more popular than ever. [00:19:35] S0: It is. Sequoia Capital has co [00:19:38] S1: Co stewards. [00:19:38] S0: Global stewards. They're global stewards. Right? Or is it something else? [00:19:42] S1: I think just co stewards dropped the global.