Bloomberg Talks
00:04:18 · Joe Lavorgna, Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney
[00:04:18] S1: I mean, as a risk manager and looking at markets, you've got to game theorize a whole lot of different scenarios that would not happen under, let's say, a more traditional president. So I don't know what happens. But to me, the gridlock is not good kind of gridlock. It's bad gridlock because the political divisions and divisiveness are worse. Things like shutdowns could be longer. We've got a debt ceiling that's going to break up the deal within the next year. That could be a lot worse. I mean, this is just not a pleasant picture. [00:04:44] S2: From where you sit, and as a student of American history, going back to the Boll Weevils, going back to the Blue Dogs, they got a fancy new name for conservative Democrats. What will be the power of Democrats elected by 52 to 48 percent elections across the nation pockets of conservative Democrats that are going to say to the traditional liberal Democrats, you've got to be kidding me. Is that going to be a theme? [00:05:14] S0: It could be. [00:05:14] S1: I mean, the thing is, what I think could happen is, I actually think the Democrats are going to get more than 52 seats. [00:05:21] S0: I mean, 06 is a great baseline. [00:05:23] S1: If you look at presidential net approval ratings, enthusiasm, generic balloting, it suggests the Democrats should get at least six seats. [00:05:32] S0: And 31 House seats.
00:05:32 · Paul Sweeney, Joe Lavorgna, Tom Keene
[00:05:32] S0: And 31 House seats. [00:05:34] S1: So I think that's what you'll get, maybe even a bigger majority in the Senate. Democrats could take that as a mandate, understandably so, and move too far to the left, not unlike, Tom, what the Tea Party was back in 2010 when they got 60-plus seats. And then the question is, okay, what happens in 28? Do the Democrats govern more from the center or from the fringe? [00:05:55] S0: That I don't know. [00:05:56] S2: I have the clearest memory. The only one that covered 94 midterms was Dan Rather. Nobody else was on at nine o'clock at night for that monumental Newt Gingrich election. And the Republicans were all on the same page. Do you, a student of this, Joe Lavorgna, do you see Democrats all on the same page in December of this year or December? I don't see it. [00:06:20] S0: No, I don't see it. [00:06:21] S1: But that doesn't mean the party is going to necessarily be as fractured as one might think. I think there's going to be competing candidates. narratives to see who, you know, who's going to run in 28. And by the way, we should have a good sense by Super Bowl, by Valentine's, who's running on both sides. [00:06:36] S0: And then we'll see who they are. [00:06:37] S1: If it's someone, you know, there's a whole list of Democrats that could run and some of them are very centrist. [00:06:42] S2: I got to stop. This is bad form. I feel like Dustin Hoffman in Hook. I need the outfit in that. How impolite of meta platforms. [00:06:51] S0: Yeah.
00:06:51 · Paul Sweeney, Tom Keene, Joe Lavorgna
[00:06:51] S0: Yeah. [00:06:52] S2: To announce a five-part U.S. dollar bond offering on Election Day. Sure. That's bad form. Why not, though? Didn't they do one last week? [00:07:02] S0: Yeah, they're just continuing to issue capital here. Joe, I mean, step back here. Give me your 30-second elevator. How's our economy doing today? The economy is a boom. [00:07:13] S1: It's just not a disinflationary boom. It's more of an inflationary boom, and that's one of the main reasons. affordability, cost of living, declining real wages, why the Republicans are going to get beat, I think, as badly as I'm guessing. Because the American worker is suffering. And by the way, even though it's not in the inflation data, look at first-time housing affordability. [00:07:35] S0: It's essentially all-time record low. People are hurting. It's not good. If you're at the RNC, you're like, this was pretty much all self-inflicted. [00:07:42] S1: Oh, it's totally self-inflicted on a variety of levels. But again, I just did my small part and I'm happy to be back in the private sector. [00:07:50] S2: Martin Shanker just emailed in, folks. He's my number one advisor, tells me what to do. He says, act like a journalist. Joe Lavorgna, is Secretary Bessent considering higher office? Is he looking at a future within the Republican Party?
00:07:50 · Tom Keene, Joe Lavorgna, Paul Sweeney
[00:07:50] S2: Martin Shanker just emailed in, folks. He's my number one advisor, tells me what to do. He says, act like a journalist. Joe Lavorgna, is Secretary Bessent considering higher office? Is he looking at a future within the Republican Party? [00:08:08] S1: My gut instinct is yes, but I don't, that's not based on any, you know, nobody. I mean, the scuttlebutt is that, you know, he's very happy and understandably so at Treasury. He's never said anything to me. People say no, but it would not surprise me. Again, this is my own personal view. [00:08:22] S2: So he says. [00:08:24] S0: I mean, in all seriousness, I honestly, I don't know, but it would make sense. I mean, I wouldn't surprise. [00:08:29] S1: Look at it this way, Tom. If you said yes or no, I'm going to say yes, but that's based purely on gut. [00:08:34] S2: If you feel like you want to come on tomorrow, can you please come back tomorrow? Talk to my people. [00:08:39] S0: Okay, I can try. Are they not listening today? [00:08:41] S2: No, no, that's fine. It's absolutely brilliant. And no, they never listen to me. My people, they don't. [00:08:47] S0: It's like, yeah, I get it. [00:08:50] S2: I can't say enough about it, folks. His perspective, hugely valuable. I think for a lot of people, stunning. to see his call there on the level of Democratic victory today. Mr. Lavorgna is with SMBC, Nikko Securities, and his Publix to the service to the nation is noted.