02:13:14 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Jeffrey Morgan, Sean Frank
[02:13:14] S1: Yeah. Right? [02:13:16] S0: In sales, they tell you to use the person's name a lot. But I'm really happy that you're here, Sean, because I wanna talk to you about this. Do you think we get to the point where, like, digital platforms end up, you know, in ads and landing pages or, like, using the individual's name to an extreme degree? Like because you get down to targeting one person Long [02:13:38] S3: time ago. [02:13:38] S0: Yeah. No. But would would eventually, there's like a [02:13:40] S1: Heck yeah. [02:13:41] S0: There's a there's a flipping point where maybe it just is so effective that it makes sense for Facebook to enable. [02:13:49] S6: Well, all AI cold email right now already puts your name in there. And there's been beta tests rolled out where they're using people's faces in the ads. It's like like [02:13:57] S0: Oh, yeah. We saw that on on remember? Yeah. Like, they I think they were trying to sell a pair of the Meta Glasses where it's, showing, like, you calling your [02:14:06] S1: Oh, interesting. [02:14:06] S0: You know? And they can tell, like, who your significant other is just based on your activity on Instagram. [02:14:13] S6: Yes. So Facebook has a lot of information. It has your face. It has who you're talking to. It has who your wife is. So it's like they they look, hyper personalization is coming for the entire web. And, you know, if you're going to be shopping, it's gonna show you what you're gonna look like in the clothes or what your dad's gonna like when he gets to the wallet. I definitely think that's happening.
02:14:13 · Sean Frank, John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[02:14:13] S6: Yes. So Facebook has a lot of information. It has your face. It has who you're talking to. It has who your wife is. So it's like they they look, hyper personalization is coming for the entire web. And, you know, if you're going to be shopping, it's gonna show you what you're gonna look like in the clothes or what your dad's gonna like when he gets to the wallet. I definitely think that's happening. [02:14:30] S1: Yeah. I mean, if the price of a cold call goes to a penny, do you think you'll be cold calling people? I I something just came across my desk. I got a wedding ring here for you. [02:14:38] S6: We've talked about [02:14:39] S1: it. We've talked about it. [02:14:40] S6: Yeah. There's a thing called, like, ringless voicemails [02:14:43] S1: Yeah. [02:14:43] S6: Where, like, you know, they'll just mass drop And those they put people's names in there. [02:14:47] S1: It's like, [02:14:48] S6: hey, John. We got this thing for you. Right? And it's like, you know, it's no it's one way. But, yeah, the two way is definitely coming. [02:14:53] S0: Interesting. What's happening in luxury? LVMH and carrying are down, like, twenty five and twenty ish percent. [02:15:02] S6: Well, we talked about the last time I was here. I was like I'm like, oh, yeah. Gucci's getting crushed. And Yeah. And it's like, yeah, it's going to continue to happen. [02:15:10] S0: You is
02:15:10 · Jordi Hays, Sean Frank
[02:15:10] S0: You is [02:15:11] S6: know, it's I think it's just a generational change is usually what it comes down to. Like, each one of those brands have good assets, but like Richemont is is still tearing. Right? Hermes is doing great. Coach is on like a generational run. Like the best performing stock of the past like two years. Right? I think last year, it beat Nvidia in performance. No way. Coach? Yeah. So it's a publicly traded or Tapestry. You should pull them up. Okay. They own Kate Spade too, but Kate Spade's like a nothing business. Yeah. So it's just it's just a generational rotation. Right? Ralph Lauren also on a tear. So you have like American Dyingism. There's American luxury. Like America wasn't old enough to have luxury brands, but like LVMH bought Tiffany's. And now it's like, look, Ralph Lauren's crushing, Coach is totally crushing. And I think the old stodgy LVMHs of the world, the Gucci of the world, one that got overexposed, like they really rely on the middle class. And if you ever look at like their sales demographics, it is like 80% of the revenue come from people making under a $102,000 a year. And it's like that's just a big disconnect when you're trying to sell whatever. Right? So there's gonna be a shift towards like, you know, true luxury. There's also a con some concern that like Elle Catterton is just personally investing in all the great assets and not bringing them into the portfolio. Like, they own Crumb Hearts and they they haven't brought that into LVMH.
02:16:25 · John Coogan, Sean Frank, Jordi Hays
[02:16:25] S1: Oh, interesting. Yeah. Okay. Well, but when you say personally investing, it's Elle Catterton is investing. Got it. [02:16:31] S6: Okay. And Elle Catterton is the investment vehicle. [02:16:33] S1: Of LVMH. Yeah. Yeah. That makes sense. [02:16:35] S6: And I [02:16:35] S1: know that they do a lot of deals in the private equity world. [02:16:37] S0: And then Oh, yeah. Why why doesn't LVMH like, you imagine the r nos are like, yeah, we wanna own the hottest. Like, would think they would do everything they possibly could to own Crum Heart. [02:16:50] S6: There's a divestment in brands right now. They're actually trying to push stuff out of their portfolio. I think they just liquidated Off White. Right? Off White ended up being like Target, like Costco brand. Like there's yeah. There's like photos of like Costco Off White, like big Palatin delivered. So they're actually doing a divestment right now from brands. And, you know, Tapestry just divested from Stuart Weissman. So like they're actually trying to go like bigger down on winners. But yeah, then there's just like a whole like, know, Mad Happy is a great brand. It's invested via Elle Catterton, not inside of the portfolio. Interesting. And the whole idea was there was supposed to be a scout fund to then bring it into the main portfolio. [02:17:25] S1: Yeah. That makes [02:17:26] S6: sense. But if you're there are no family and you own 90% Elle Catterton and only 45% of LVMH, [02:17:31] S1: it's like, what's what's the incentive? Interesting. Yeah. Yeah. But you look, I mean, you
02:17:31 · John Coogan, Sean Frank, Jordi Hays
[02:17:31] S1: it's like, what's what's the incentive? Interesting. Yeah. Yeah. But you look, I mean, you [02:17:36] S6: could like, Richmont owns Cartier. Cartier is having a great time. You know, they own Van Cleef. Van Cleef is still having a great time. But those are both of those are way more true luxury brands than an LVMH. [02:17:45] S1: Yeah. So Have we hit peak, TEMU, and Sheehan? [02:17:49] S6: Oh, yeah, dude. I mean, Trump got rid of section three twenty one, That De totally crushed those brands. It's like, I I mean, you know, Tmall [02:18:00] S0: Where do you go if you wanna shop like a billionaire? There's nowhere else to go. [02:18:05] S6: Yeah. Fuck. You're right, man. [02:18:08] S1: I don't know. [02:18:08] S6: Bridge.com. No. Look, mean, they're still huge. They they run a lot of ads. And like, Team Moose publicly traded under like a PDD or whatever. So they have a huge business in Latin America. They have a huge business in Southeast Asia. Mhmm. But like, their whole arbitrage was just flooding into America with with low cost Direct [02:18:28] S1: from the factory. Right? [02:18:29] S6: Yeah. And it just got kinda [02:18:30] S1: that kinda blew up. It's gone. Interesting. Have you been surprised that live shopping has been slow in America? No one's predicting this from China. Oh, if it's big there, it's gonna be big here in a year. And it feels like it's been very slow. But what what what have you seen in the live shopping?
02:18:30 · John Coogan, Sean Frank, Jordi Hays
[02:18:30] S1: that kinda blew up. It's gone. Interesting. Have you been surprised that live shopping has been slow in America? No one's predicting this from China. Oh, if it's big there, it's gonna be big here in a year. And it feels like it's been very slow. But what what what have you seen in the live shopping? [02:18:47] S6: Yeah. Look, people are very excited about whatnot. Yeah. And they are putting up impressive GMV growth. Mhmm. But it is very much dependent on, like, the trading card bubble. It's like that's that's what it is. [02:18:58] S1: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. [02:18:59] S6: So it's live shopping in [02:19:00] S0: America. Yeah. This is what I was saying yesterday. It's like, it's effectively I'm not gonna call it gambling, but there there's some speculation happening on, there's a there's a massive, I would say, spec you would wanna figure out what percentage of GMV is driven by speculation, and I would expect that it's significant. [02:19:21] S6: Yeah. Like, people aren't going on there to buy their everyday essentials. Right? They're going on there for the excitement. Like, it is an option. [02:19:26] S1: Whereas in China, there's live shopping where you can buy a tomato. And that's just not happening. [02:19:30] S6: And women are buying dresses and it's the whole thing. [02:19:32] S1: Yeah. Of course, the whole person put picking up one piece of clothing, put it down, put it on the next one. Like, we've seen that video and we have yet to see that in America. Yeah. Why is that?