01:58:38 · Jordi Hays, Sean Frank, Bernt Øivind Børnich, John Coogan
[01:58:38] S0: to you more. Yeah. [01:58:38] S6: Yeah. Like, the best thing he could do is get people to spend more time on their app. Yeah. Right? And then better understand who those people are and what they're in market for. Mhmm. And if he delivers those things, the ad dollars will come. Mhmm. Because besides that, like, where else we're gonna spend money? [01:58:49] S5: Yeah. [01:58:49] S6: Like, TikTok shop's actually doing great, but it's still a really small business. Right? Like, the GMV this year in America might be 20,000,000,000. [01:58:56] S1: Really? [01:58:56] S6: And Amazon does that, like, every four days or something. So it's like, it's still a very, very small business. [01:59:01] S1: Why is TikTok so small? Is it is it a separate panel or something? I feel like TikTok still has so many so many impressions, so many videos that are being served. Do you do you have an idea of why that business is [01:59:13] S0: falling out? I think it's it's not necessarily I think it's primarily that content platforms have been a place you discover products, but not where you transact. Like Meta has done a lot of had a lot of efforts in shopping in app. They never you would have thought that they would have clicked harder. Yeah. Right? It's like you have this captive audience that uses your product for an hour a day to discover things to buy, and they're not buying that many products in the app. [01:59:40] S1: Yeah.
01:59:40 · John Coogan, Sean Frank, Jordi Hays
[01:59:40] S1: Yeah. [01:59:40] S6: Yeah. And TikTok shop is delivering way more value than 20,000,000,000 in GMV. Like, a a brand is, like, Comfort Hoodies. I'm sure you guys have seen them. They're doing 1,000,000,000 a year right now. They're four years [01:59:51] S0: old. Last time time you told me about them, I think it was, like, 400 or something [01:59:55] S6: like they've more than doubled. Yeah. It's crazy. [01:59:57] S1: Yeah. Yeah. [01:59:57] S6: Yeah. And all it is is, like, TikTok shop affiliates. So people posting thousands of videos a day. They take those the best videos of it. Yep. They put it into TikTok shop GMV max. Yeah. They run that. And their TikTok shop business might do might do a 100,000,000 a year, but the spillover is crazy. Everyone goes to Amazon. Everyone goes to your website. [02:00:14] S1: Oh, got it. [02:00:15] S6: So, like Yeah. Yeah. They've just done a horrible job actually capturing the value they're generating. [02:00:19] S1: Interesting. But they're getting a lot of impressions. They're driving a of purchases. What's the sweet spot for price point on TikTok shop? That hoodie company, is that a $70 hoodie? [02:00:28] S6: It's cheaper. Right? Like, it's a successful product in TikTok shop is female focused Mhmm. Impulse buy. So like, you know, $20, $30, $40, something like that. And then you have people to make outrageous claims. Right? And so Yeah. Yeah. Comfort hoodies is like it's a hoodie that cures anxiety. Yeah. So, like, that's pretty good. [02:00:45] S1: Like, it's [02:00:46] S6: a pretty good value prop.
02:00:46 · Sean Frank, John Coogan
[02:00:46] S6: a pretty good value prop. [02:00:47] S1: Claim the FDA might wake up to that one at [02:00:49] S6: some point. All the affiliates are making it, so who cares? Yeah. [02:00:53] S1: Somebody should care, but we'll see. Yeah. A little bit of a gray area. Interesting. Are there any I I I wanna know about when you're using AI personally in house or someone on your team is using AI, like the models or the products, like ChatGPT, Claude, etcetera, versus you feel like you're getting AI for free because you're using Mailchimp and Mailchimp integrated AI, or you're on Shopify and Shopify gave you an AI feature for free. [02:01:25] S6: Yeah. You know, I I don't wanna talk too bad about any sponsors. I don't know if Notion sponsors you guys. They don't. Okay. Great. You would actually hope that more of these companies would be rolling out AI faster and better and more useful. Because like, you know, we're using it internally a ton directly with the models. And like inventory planning and buying is a solved problem. [02:01:44] S1: Okay. [02:01:44] S6: That was like the biggest problem that has plagued [02:01:46] S1: Yeah. Like Like demand forecasting. [02:01:48] S6: Yeah. Like all of that is like [02:01:49] S1: And then a proposal to a supplier or or in your case, like the actual factory to to understand how many you're gonna sell by month, when they need to be delivered, what would the shipping timelines, all of that's just a bunch of Excel work normally. [02:02:03] S6: Yeah. And it was huge teams. [02:02:04] S1: And if
02:02:04 · John Coogan, Sean Frank, Jordi Hays, Thibault Sottiaux
[02:02:04] S1: And if [02:02:04] S6: you got it wrong, it bankrupted your company. Yep. Right? Like, you had bad inventory or you get, like, shorts in December. Right? Like Yeah. Yeah. It ruined a bunch of businesses. Mhmm. AI has totally solved that. Really? Working directly with coexes of the world, right, and just putting in all of your your business information. [02:02:18] S1: Such a huge unlock for the global economy. It's, like, crazy to think of. [02:02:22] S0: We gotta tell we gotta tell consumers that don't like AI. Your favorite brands are doing perfect forecasting. [02:02:30] S1: And that means that [02:02:31] S0: you are gonna get the perfect article of clothing right before your trip to Hawaii even though you waited until three days before to order it. [02:02:39] S6: Always have the right sizes in stock. That is coming because of Kodak. That's crazy. [02:02:43] S0: This is this is this is, like, part of what, the Souffinator was talking about. Right? Like, the the one of the Eric Suvert moped up memo. He he was just talking about, like, actually, if you have, like, better advertising because of AI, it will create a like like, it will drive economic growth purely because you have more and more of these, niche businesses that might have an audience of 50,000 people in the whole world. And historically, you couldn't build that business because it would have been impossible to find that 50,000 people out of billions. Now you can. [02:03:16] S4: Mhmm.
02:03:16 · Thibault Sottiaux, Jordi Hays, Sean Frank, John Coogan
[02:03:16] S4: Mhmm. [02:03:16] S0: And then this is again an accelerant of like so much revenue is lost every day. So much purchasing activity doesn't happen because people just can't buy the stuff that they want because the brand didn't properly forecast Mhmm. And and is still kind of doing like fly by wire. [02:03:34] S6: Totally. The wrong sizes, the wrong things at the wrong time. Like, with how expensive it is to get stuff on, shipping containers and how long it takes. Mhmm. And there was a lot of companies who spent a lot of money trying to solve this. There was demand software that did billions a year in revenue. As long as you have like a system of records, like a clean data warehouse Yep. And you have your all of your sales from Shopify, Amazon, whatever else, you port all of that into a codex and it will it totally has it figured out. [02:03:58] S1: Interesting. [02:03:59] S6: And if you have to make those small tweaks like, oh, actually last year we were on a promo, this year we're not going to. [02:04:03] S1: Oh, so the multi platform thing is big here because I would have I was just about to ask you, like, should Shopify roll out a demand planning tool for Shopify merchants? But they probably Amazon has sharp elbows and won't give them all the data just via a a simple integration. [02:04:18] S6: Yeah. It all has to roll up into the harness. It all has to go into codec. [02:04:21] S1: And so and so you have to get into a data warehouse and then you have to point an LLM at that.
02:04:21 · John Coogan, Sean Frank, Bernt Øivind Børnich, Jordi Hays
[02:04:21] S1: And so and so you have to get into a data warehouse and then you have to point an LLM at that. [02:04:25] S6: Yeah. So like, you know, we're not like we're not like a large buyer of software. [02:04:31] S5: Yeah. [02:04:31] S6: Like, you know, we we have Shopify [02:04:33] S0: Sure. [02:04:33] S6: Data warehouse, whatever else. But as long as you have those like basic things [02:04:36] S5: Yeah. [02:04:36] S6: And you put it into a harness Yeah. It's like [02:04:38] S1: But your IT spends like yeah. Probably like less than 1% of revenue. [02:04:41] S6: Totally. [02:04:41] S1: Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Which is which is the the good benchmark. You don't wanna be like building every system custom from scratch. [02:04:48] S6: Yeah. And people are so excited because they can vibe vibe code everything. Right? But, like, you know, judge me reviews is like $5 a month. So I'm not gonna vibe code my own reviews thing. Right? I'm just gonna do this. [02:04:57] S1: Yeah. Just pay that. Yeah. [02:04:58] S6: But but So really [02:04:59] S1: There's some review plugins that are very expensive. [02:05:01] S6: So Yeah. Bizarre Voice, horrible. Like, yeah. Yappo has a bad reputation. [02:05:05] S1: Yeah. Yeah. I've gotten I've gotten, fleeced a couple times. [02:05:10] S0: What's new in manufacturing land? Oh. You know, this You you guys were trying to develop US manufacturing, like, way before, like, American dynamism was, a category. Like, this is something that you guys have been, like, exploring and dabbling with for a long time. But what's what's the latest?