00:00:00 · S0, Ryan Detrick
[00:00:00] S0: This episode is brought to you by Indeed. You're ready to level up your business, but the pressure to find the right person to make that happen is intense. Indeed Sponsored Jobs can help carry the load. It boosts your job post to help it reach quality talent fast. Cut through the chaos with Indeed sponsored jobs. Get a $75 sponsored job credit at indeed.com/podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Hiring now? Then this is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs. [00:00:29] S1: We talked about midterms coming up. It's real simple for everybody out there listening. You just start the day of the midterm and go one year out. The S and P 500, and Phil's probably shared this too. S and P 500 has never been lower the last 19 times. 19 times a year later, we're higher after midterms. Now not all of those were up a ton. I wanna be clear. But still, you're up, like, 15% on average, which is nearly twice the at any time one year return. So, again, not about red, not about blue. It's about green. Now one more on midterms if I can quickly hear.
00:00:57 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:00:57] S2: What's going on, guys? Today, we got an excellent conversation with Ryan Detrick. He's the chief market strategist at Carson Group, and this guy, he's got high energy and he's got unique insights that are gonna help you make money in your portfolio. In this conversation, we talk about why October sometimes weak, what is the best day in the stock market, why he has a bunch of data from the historical performance of the stock market that suggests Q4 is going to be very good, even though every headline and every person you talk to tells you that you should be worried right now. He's a big believer in the AI trade and the tech trade, and he thinks that there's a ton of stuff happening in the market right now no one's talking about. But if he's right, that is going to lead to higher prices over the rest of this year and over the next twelve months. So this conversation, hopefully, will allow you to get a little bit of confidence that all the bears are wrong, that Ryan Detrick knows what he's talking about. I'm excited for you to listen. Here's my latest conversation with Ryan Detrick. Alright, Ryan. Everyone's freaking out going into the end of October, but you think actually this weakness is not only predictable, but it's something people just gotta kinda weather the storm. Can you explain how you're thinking about right now?
00:01:57 · Ryan Detrick
[00:01:57] S1: That's right. You know, first of all, thanks for having me back. There's so much to talk about here, but the reality, Oktoberphobia is real. You know? It's a spooky season. Then you look at history and it's normal to have weakness, you know, the first three weeks or so of October. I mean, and this stuff isn't perfect, but historically, the strongest day of the year is October 28. Alright? Now that's also my birthday, so I'm not so sure if that's a coincidence or not. But you get this major low late October and then you rally. And I think it's, it's almost we've talked before we started recording. It's almost too simple. Like everyone's freaking out. I mean, there's so much bearishness. I mean, hedge funds last Thursday had one of the worst days since the day after The US debt downgrade way back in 2011 for the old old timers who remember that. Hedge funds have their most shorts in five years. I mean, there's a lot of negativity and maybe rightfully so. I get it. We're But gonna get into some other things that aren't so... I don't think you should be so negative about. But the reality here, Anthony, I think this late October low midterm years, all the freak outs that are there, it's probably going to cause max pain. Market last thing, market likes to cause max pain. And right now, it sure feels like a lot of people are expecting lower bad things to happen, and I like to take the contrarian to that, signal.
00:03:09 · Anthony Pompliano
[00:03:09] S2: Well, I see a lot of people calling for much lower lows, but more importantly is they all seem to just think that we're gonna grind down. Like, there's no specific catalyst for the drop. It's just kinda like, hey. Things have sucked in their opinion. They continue to suck now. And so why would things go up? So it must go down. Like, gravity will take over to some degree. My base case is that we have weakness going into around the election, the midterm. And then once we get the midterm election certainty, regardless of who wins, like it almost doesn't matter who wins. Mhmm. Once we get that certainty, we have strength going in through the end of the year. Is that kind of your view as well?
00:03:44 · Ryan Detrick
[00:03:44] S1: It is. And you look historically, the strongest two months in the midterm year are October and November. We we say here, Carson, you know, it's not about red, not about blue, it's about green. I mean, that's the stuff you need to think about. Now listen, we can get way in the weeds in this. Those credit default swaps on some of those hyperscalers and the neo clouds. Yeah. There's some concern there, but then you look at like high yield credit spreads and things, they're not blowing out by any means. I say there's a monster under the bed. The credit markets would sense it. We're not seeing that. And then you look at like, maybe I'm getting ahead of the, card here, but look at breadth. I mean, what's happening? Yeah. Tech has a bad day, and then you have, like, 300 or 400 stocks up. I mean, we saw that last week even though, like, Thursday was a down day, but a lot of stocks participating. So it... It's this interesting dichotomy where we're seeing passing the baton around. Right? Life of the life of the bull market is rotation. I mean, if tech blows up, listen, my bullish thesis probably isn't going to play out. Last week, software is up 6%. Software all of a sudden starting to come back. I don't think that's a bad thing. Yeah. You don't want semiconductors to keep, you know, going down and momentum to keep crashing or South Korea crashing. One more thing on this actually. We had a major stock market literally earlier this week crash. Brazil. Brazil was down 20% because of the election. Now they were up like 20% quickly a couple of weeks ago. But Anthony, I'm really encouraged by the fact that major stock market just crashed and literally no one even noticed or no one even seemed to care. Trust me, somebody cared. I don't mean to minimize it. But the fact that US markets are still consolidating after a 15% rally in April and May on the S and P, we've literally gone nowhere for like five months. I know it's frustrating the bulls and the bears. Let's be honest because we haven't gone anywhere, but we're consolidating. And I think again, the the the upward trend, this bull market, which is in its fifth year, you know, we just had his fourth birthday. No bull market that made it to his fourth birthday last fifty years died before the fifth birthday, average of eight years.
00:05:29 · Ryan Detrick, Anthony Pompliano
I've talked with you for a couple years about these cycles that last longer. You think I think the sideways action for five months, it's frustrating. Everybody is a good thing. And we're gonna continue to go higher here before this year is over. [00:05:40] S2: Let's talk about this idea of breadth in, in the market. So, Phil Rosen, who is a friend of yours and I's, he recently put out this chart and blew my mind. Right? Because it's such a narrative violation. What he said was the average stock rose during the dot com bust. And he shows that the S and P 500 during the dot com bust was down almost 20%. But if you take the equal weight S and P 500, it actually was up 5.6% during the same time period. Is that kind of what we're seeing now is everyone is paying attention to tech and kind of sentiment is tied to the AI trade, but actually the rest of the market is still continuing to be strong and and doing well?