00:27:25 · Joe Weisenthal, James Bosworth, Tracy Alloway
[00:27:25] S1: We'll do an episode on the run-up or preview episode for the Mayor of Quito episode. That sounds fun. [00:27:31] S2: El Nino is hitting Ecuador right now. And Ecuador, two years ago, had a series of blackouts. And they just started having power outages right now, which is not good for local elections and how they're going to function in Ecuador. So we have local elections in Ecuador. And then next year we get elections in Guatemala and elections in Argentina. And everybody's going to be watching the run-ups to the elections in Argentina because the start of this most recent right-wing wave, if you want to call it that, was Javier Milei. And so whether Javier Milei can win re-election or Argentina goes towards a different path is going to start defining the next pendulum swing in Latin America. [00:28:07] S1: All right, James Bosworth, thank you so much for coming back on the podcast. Thanks for coming in studio. Really appreciate you taking your time. [00:28:13] S0: Thank you. [00:28:27] S1: That was fun. I really liked talking to James. It actually makes a lot of sense. The first round was an election about Lula. And then the second round was an election, a referendum on Bolsonaro. [00:28:38] S0: Everything makes sense in hindsight. No, no, I agree. It's still really surprising. The prediction markets got it so, so wrong.
00:28:38 · Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal
[00:28:38] S0: Everything makes sense in hindsight. No, no, I agree. It's still really surprising. The prediction markets got it so, so wrong. [00:28:45] S1: No, and of course, that's James's story of how it got it wrong. But I kind of buy it as a sort of, what would explain the electorate to shift in a short period of time? It's like, oh, we don't like this Lula guy. It's time for someone new. And then it's like, oh, okay, a new guy wins. Oh, yeah, but Bolsonaro. And then the votes turn. It kind of makes sense to me. [00:29:07] S0: Yeah. To me, the big question is like, what does this mean for the orange wave? [00:29:11] S1: Yeah. Right. [00:29:12] S0: And I take James's point that you have to deal with Trump in one way or another if you're South America, because he finds a way to sort of insert himself into everything. But is that going to be political? Like, would aligning with him be as politically popular now as it used to be?
00:29:12 · Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal, James Bosworth
[00:29:12] S0: And I take James's point that you have to deal with Trump in one way or another if you're South America, because he finds a way to sort of insert himself into everything. But is that going to be political? Like, would aligning with him be as politically popular now as it used to be? [00:29:30] S1: Yeah, I know. That's the question. Look, you know, at some point, actually, we should do an episode on super forecasting, which I don't know anything about. So it's always like a a super forecaster. What's your thing? Actually, don't even. That's a whole subculture of people who are really good at forecasting. So I'm never going to doubt a super forecaster. You know, it's like, hey, I'm not one. But I still find it hard to believe that there isn't a penalty in much of the world for being seen as too chummy with Trump at a time when Trump's war with Iran has driven up costs for everyone around the world. I think like the polling for Nigel Farage, for example, in the UK has been sliding because he's seen as been too Trump friendly, etc. So who knows what's going to happen there? It still makes you want. Yeah, like. Yes, in the meantime, you got to work with them, of course, and you have to take them seriously, etc. But from an electoral standpoint, I don't know. I find it implausible that anyone really wants to be too friendly with him going into an election. [00:30:38] S0: Except maybe for Rodriguez. [00:30:40] S1: Except maybe for Rodriguez. [00:30:42] S2: Right. [00:30:42] S1: It's all very strange. [00:30:44] S2: All right. [00:30:44] S0: Shall we leave it there?
00:30:44 · Tracy Alloway, James Bosworth, Joe Weisenthal
[00:30:44] S0: Shall we leave it there? [00:30:45] S2: Let's leave it there. [00:30:46] S0: This has been another episode of the Odd Lots. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. [00:30:51] S1: And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our guest, James Bosworth, at Bloggings by Boz. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armin, Dash O'Bennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano. And of course, you can chat about all of these topics 24-7 in our Discord at discord.gg slash oddlots. And for more Oddlots content, check out our daily newsletter, which you can find at bloomberg.com slash oddlots. [00:31:19] S0: And if you enjoyed this conversation, if you like it when we talk Latin American politics, if you want us to do a regional Ecuador election episode, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And if you're watching on video, then please leave a comment or like or better yet, subscribe. [00:31:37] S1: And remember, if you're a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. [00:31:47] S0: Thanks for joining. Thank you.