00:23:39 · Tracy Alloway, James Bosworth, Joe Weisenthal
[00:23:39] S0: Speaking of rule of law, I mentioned that headline that came out just before we started recording this, but the New York Times reporting that the U.S. is in negotiations for a potential military presence in Venezuela. What does that actually mean? [00:23:53] S2: So as I understand it, it's a status of forces agreement, which doesn't necessarily mean a permanent military base or military presence. Instead, it would be an agreement for the U.S. military to be there to train, to operate, to provide support, and maybe to engage in certain operations. There was just an operation a couple of days ago against an ELN camp near the Colombia border. It looks like the U.S. assisted the Venezuelan military in that. The U.S. wants these agreements so that we have legal certainty for what happens to the U.S. soldiers when they are in country. And the Trump administration would like that deal signed so that we can feel more comfortable having U.S. military presence in the region. But it doesn't mean like a permanent base by any means. At least that's not how I read it. They could change that tomorrow. But how I read it today is just a basic agreement. [00:24:38] S1: What would happen if there were a free election held tomorrow in Venezuela? [00:24:41] S2: María Corina Machado would win. [00:24:43] S1: Unambiguously?
00:24:43 · Joe Weisenthal, James Bosworth
[00:24:43] S1: Unambiguously? [00:24:44] S2: Yes. There's essentially no doubt that if you were to put María Corina Machado versus Delcy Rodriguez tomorrow in an election... Better than 90 percent, assuming everything was free and fair, María Corina Machado wins. And the odds go up the more you allow for Venezuelan expats to vote. That's just inside of Venezuela, which I think I think it's important to note. There are a lot of Venezuelans who have left the country. About a quarter of the population has left the country over the last. [00:25:08] S1: Were she to become president at some point in the next couple of years, what would be what would she do? Like what would substantively would be the change?
00:25:16 · James Bosworth
[00:25:16] S2: Of course, there's a lot to be done in Venezuela. And so first off, she needs to consolidate her control with the military and the police. And this is, I think, a big reason why the Trump administration didn't go with her originally is they weren't sure that she would have the respect of the armed forces. And I'm not defending their policy, but that was the reason that they gave was that they knew that Delcy Rodriguez would have control of the military and they weren't sure Machado would. And so Machado has to show that she can control the security forces. Then she needs to Fix the economy. And the economy is a wreck. It's one of the biggest economic collapses in world history that we've seen in Venezuela. That includes fixing the currency. That includes getting new oil investments. That includes fixing the economy outside of the oil economy as well. There are other sectors that need to be fixed. And she needs to restore democracy. And that includes having multiple parties. It can't just be the chavistas and the opposition forever. There should be a wider range of democratic parties. And she needs to somehow restore the checks and balances, which means she probably loses the next election, or her party does. And that's a really hard thing to ask any politician to do, to set up a system, knowing that you may be creating the environment where your party loses because of how the political pendulum will work.
00:26:33 · Tracy Alloway, James Bosworth, Joe Weisenthal
[00:26:33] S0: I know we implied in our intro that we weren't going to talk about the US elections, North American elections, but You're a super forecaster. We're recording this on November 3rd. I kind of feel like we have to ask for an actual number. [00:26:48] S2: So the Democrats are going to take the House. [00:26:49] S1: We're recording this at 2.59 p.m. November 3rd. [00:26:52] S2: I am 96% certain the Democrats are going to take the House of Representatives. I feel very confident in talking about what it means for the Democrats to take the House of Representatives. The Senate is closer to a coin flip than Nate Silver, who you had on last week. That said, the possibility for a blue wave is definitely there, but it's not certain yet. So I can't make a call in the Senate, but I can definitely make a call in the House. It's going Democratic. [00:27:14] S1: Last question. What else should we be looking for in Latin America for the coming months? Any other elections coming up or anything? [00:27:21] S2: There are local elections in Ecuador. That sounds really boring. Mayor of Quito. [00:27:25] S1: We'll do an episode on the run-up or preview episode for the Mayor of Quito episode. That sounds fun.
00:27:25 · Joe Weisenthal, James Bosworth, Tracy Alloway
[00:27:25] S1: We'll do an episode on the run-up or preview episode for the Mayor of Quito episode. That sounds fun. [00:27:31] S2: El Nino is hitting Ecuador right now. And Ecuador, two years ago, had a series of blackouts. And they just started having power outages right now, which is not good for local elections and how they're going to function in Ecuador. So we have local elections in Ecuador. And then next year we get elections in Guatemala and elections in Argentina. And everybody's going to be watching the run-ups to the elections in Argentina because the start of this most recent right-wing wave, if you want to call it that, was Javier Milei. And so whether Javier Milei can win re-election or Argentina goes towards a different path is going to start defining the next pendulum swing in Latin America. [00:28:07] S1: All right, James Bosworth, thank you so much for coming back on the podcast. Thanks for coming in studio. Really appreciate you taking your time. [00:28:13] S0: Thank you. [00:28:27] S1: That was fun. I really liked talking to James. It actually makes a lot of sense. The first round was an election about Lula. And then the second round was an election, a referendum on Bolsonaro. [00:28:38] S0: Everything makes sense in hindsight. No, no, I agree. It's still really surprising. The prediction markets got it so, so wrong.
00:28:38 · Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal
[00:28:38] S0: Everything makes sense in hindsight. No, no, I agree. It's still really surprising. The prediction markets got it so, so wrong. [00:28:45] S1: No, and of course, that's James's story of how it got it wrong. But I kind of buy it as a sort of, what would explain the electorate to shift in a short period of time? It's like, oh, we don't like this Lula guy. It's time for someone new. And then it's like, oh, okay, a new guy wins. Oh, yeah, but Bolsonaro. And then the votes turn. It kind of makes sense to me. [00:29:07] S0: Yeah. To me, the big question is like, what does this mean for the orange wave? [00:29:11] S1: Yeah. Right. [00:29:12] S0: And I take James's point that you have to deal with Trump in one way or another if you're South America, because he finds a way to sort of insert himself into everything. But is that going to be political? Like, would aligning with him be as politically popular now as it used to be?