00:20:35 · Tracy Alloway, James Bosworth
[00:20:35] S0: Wait, can you just explain what influence exactly Brazil has over Venezuela or what leverage they actually exert here? [00:20:43] S2: That's a great question. So Lula... Brazil is Latin America's largest economy. It shares a border with Venezuela. Hypothetically, for years under Chavez and Maduro, there were tens of millions of development contracts that went from Brazil to Venezuela. And Brazil's construction companies constructed a bunch of Venezuelan infrastructure. Brazil should be influential in Venezuela. The fact that they haven't been is the surprise. They are the biggest military in South America. They're the biggest neighbor for Venezuela. They're the largest economy. They should be the most influential player in South America in Venezuela. But under Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil stepped back from a lot of the diplomatic efforts to push transition. And then under Lula, they did very little after Maduro stole the 2024 election. Both the right and the left in Brazil have taken that step back from what should be influence in South America. And I think Lula may want to reassert it because as presidents late in their second term often do, when they become lame ducks, they turn towards foreign policy because it's where they have the influence.
00:20:43 · James Bosworth, Joe Weisenthal
[00:20:43] S2: That's a great question. So Lula... Brazil is Latin America's largest economy. It shares a border with Venezuela. Hypothetically, for years under Chavez and Maduro, there were tens of millions of development contracts that went from Brazil to Venezuela. And Brazil's construction companies constructed a bunch of Venezuelan infrastructure. Brazil should be influential in Venezuela. The fact that they haven't been is the surprise. They are the biggest military in South America. They're the biggest neighbor for Venezuela. They're the largest economy. They should be the most influential player in South America in Venezuela. But under Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil stepped back from a lot of the diplomatic efforts to push transition. And then under Lula, they did very little after Maduro stole the 2024 election. Both the right and the left in Brazil have taken that step back from what should be influence in South America. And I think Lula may want to reassert it because as presidents late in their second term often do, when they become lame ducks, they turn towards foreign policy because it's where they have the influence. [00:22:06] S1: Setting aside democracy and all that, what's happening with oil and the corporate money? And is there evidence of the oil majors, et cetera, actually looking at Venezuela as a real opportunity for growth? Or is the story still that all the talented petroleum engineers left a long time ago, the infrastructure isn't in place, it's still too uncertain, it's mostly noise? Where do you stand on that?
00:22:29 · James Bosworth, Tracy Alloway
[00:22:29] S2: The oil majors are looking, but they're not jumping it. Chevron is in. Chevron was in before. Chevron will be in for the next 50 years. The rest of the oil majors, including Exxon and Conoco, who were kicked out under the Chavez era, they're interested. Venezuela is a sea of oil. It would be a great place to go. None of the larger firms want to go into Venezuela prior to some sort of certainty that their contracts will be respected. And so what you see instead are the NABAP, which is the company that Alejandro Betancourt currently runs, the companies that are going in are small. They're not quite wildcatters, but they are the sort of companies that aren't there for the long run. They're there for the quick deals. And I think that as we look for, you know, how is Venezuela going to recover? How is Venezuela going to rebuild? You're not going to rebuild with a company that has never done serious oil drilling elsewhere in the world. And so one of the reasons to push for democracy in Venezuela is the fact that you do not get the oil majors to come in until they have that rule of law certainty. And they know that a 10-year investment or a 30-year investment is going to be able to stick and not just change two years from now when the government changes. [00:23:39] S0: Speaking of rule of law, I mentioned that headline that came out just before we started recording this, but the New York Times reporting that the U.S. is in negotiations for a potential military presence in Venezuela. What does that actually mean?
00:23:39 · Tracy Alloway, James Bosworth, Joe Weisenthal
[00:23:39] S0: Speaking of rule of law, I mentioned that headline that came out just before we started recording this, but the New York Times reporting that the U.S. is in negotiations for a potential military presence in Venezuela. What does that actually mean? [00:23:53] S2: So as I understand it, it's a status of forces agreement, which doesn't necessarily mean a permanent military base or military presence. Instead, it would be an agreement for the U.S. military to be there to train, to operate, to provide support, and maybe to engage in certain operations. There was just an operation a couple of days ago against an ELN camp near the Colombia border. It looks like the U.S. assisted the Venezuelan military in that. The U.S. wants these agreements so that we have legal certainty for what happens to the U.S. soldiers when they are in country. And the Trump administration would like that deal signed so that we can feel more comfortable having U.S. military presence in the region. But it doesn't mean like a permanent base by any means. At least that's not how I read it. They could change that tomorrow. But how I read it today is just a basic agreement. [00:24:38] S1: What would happen if there were a free election held tomorrow in Venezuela? [00:24:41] S2: María Corina Machado would win. [00:24:43] S1: Unambiguously?
00:24:43 · Joe Weisenthal, James Bosworth
[00:24:43] S1: Unambiguously? [00:24:44] S2: Yes. There's essentially no doubt that if you were to put María Corina Machado versus Delcy Rodriguez tomorrow in an election... Better than 90 percent, assuming everything was free and fair, María Corina Machado wins. And the odds go up the more you allow for Venezuelan expats to vote. That's just inside of Venezuela, which I think I think it's important to note. There are a lot of Venezuelans who have left the country. About a quarter of the population has left the country over the last. [00:25:08] S1: Were she to become president at some point in the next couple of years, what would be what would she do? Like what would substantively would be the change?
00:25:16 · James Bosworth
[00:25:16] S2: Of course, there's a lot to be done in Venezuela. And so first off, she needs to consolidate her control with the military and the police. And this is, I think, a big reason why the Trump administration didn't go with her originally is they weren't sure that she would have the respect of the armed forces. And I'm not defending their policy, but that was the reason that they gave was that they knew that Delcy Rodriguez would have control of the military and they weren't sure Machado would. And so Machado has to show that she can control the security forces. Then she needs to Fix the economy. And the economy is a wreck. It's one of the biggest economic collapses in world history that we've seen in Venezuela. That includes fixing the currency. That includes getting new oil investments. That includes fixing the economy outside of the oil economy as well. There are other sectors that need to be fixed. And she needs to restore democracy. And that includes having multiple parties. It can't just be the chavistas and the opposition forever. There should be a wider range of democratic parties. And she needs to somehow restore the checks and balances, which means she probably loses the next election, or her party does. And that's a really hard thing to ask any politician to do, to set up a system, knowing that you may be creating the environment where your party loses because of how the political pendulum will work.