01:05:12 · John Coogan, Will Manidis, Tyler
[01:05:12] S1: Yeah. Not breaking your wine glass. Right. [01:05:15] S3: Like one... Mutual friend in the group chat this morning. I'm sure you saw it. He was in San Francisco asking people why they bought unitary robotics and this kid who had spent like $6,000,000 of his seat around buying unitary robots. Friend asked him what he has done with it and he said, don't really know. The robots can just kind of karate chop me. They can kick me, but they can't really do anything else. And, you know, Jeremy's riff on this. It's like, you know, singularity is here. Right? The robot can beat you up. Who knows what else it can do? So certainly, like, a karate chopping robot kicking people is probably the first use case. But like you have to be a d p... ADT pill even on the sensor modalities. Like, even if they're not able to get any lift out of the core business, that has to be the most valuable data set in the world. [01:06:00] S1: What's your view on interest rates in this neo dollar inflationary regime? [01:06:06] S3: Well, you can certainly track the great stagnation ending in treasury rates. Right? Like, you can literally look at the treasury yield curve and see kind of the twenty year stagnation that we lived through. [01:06:17] S1: Was it twenty or was it fifty? I feel like people go back to 1979 often or, like, [01:06:22] S2: forty years. I mean, I feel like the [01:06:23] S3: last time rates were at this level... I mean, yeah. Certainly, if if...
01:06:23 · Will Manidis, John Coogan
[01:06:23] S3: last time rates were at this level... I mean, yeah. Certainly, if if... [01:06:28] S1: Yeah. We did have high rates in the nineties. You're you're correct. High rates in the... But but at the same time, like, the stagnation thesis starts with, like, the moon landing in many tellings of it. Right? [01:06:36] S3: It's probably true. Probably not, you know, not adequately. We didn't have the Bloomberg terminal then, [01:06:39] S1: so it probably [01:06:40] S3: took twenty years to price in or something. Right now, Twitter. [01:06:44] S1: Sure. [01:06:45] S3: But certainly, like, if if the rate of technology progress continues at the rate that we think it will, then rates are gonna have to go much much higher. [01:06:52] S1: Yeah. And is that a crowding out effect, like just piling into AI investment that's driving up rates or something that's going on with the neo dollar specifically? [01:07:00] S3: I think partially neo dollar, partially I think a thing people have not totally processed is that when the risk free rate increases, the rate that risk demands does not increase linearly with the increase in the risk free rate. These things are actually exponentially related. So in a world where kind of yield increases two x, you may see a four to five x increase in risk rate on top of that. But certainly, just there's so much productive use for dollars at this point, where even the data center build out alone could saturate the monetary supply. Like, it's it's just... It's really important to be clear eyed about where all these dollars are going to go.
01:07:00 · Will Manidis, John Coogan
[01:07:00] S3: I think partially neo dollar, partially I think a thing people have not totally processed is that when the risk free rate increases, the rate that risk demands does not increase linearly with the increase in the risk free rate. These things are actually exponentially related. So in a world where kind of yield increases two x, you may see a four to five x increase in risk rate on top of that. But certainly, just there's so much productive use for dollars at this point, where even the data center build out alone could saturate the monetary supply. Like, it's it's just... It's really important to be clear eyed about where all these dollars are going to go. [01:07:37] S1: How do you think the shape of the median or average firm changes in America or globally?
01:07:37 · John Coogan, Will Manidis
[01:07:37] S1: How do you think the shape of the median or average firm changes in America or globally? [01:07:46] S3: We think there will be a lot less public companies in The US. A piece we developed at the end of it is what we call the forced settlement, which is if you can think about all of history as negotiated compromises between management, capital, and labor as kind of the three countervailing forces that make up the firm. Capital and management are going to become much more similar over time. You're going to see smaller management teams that are comped as if they are capital. You already see this with things like Meta where you have Alex Wang, basically a $20,000,000,000 employee. Certainly not a down, you know, 20,000,000,000 employees. Yeah. And you're going to see labor leave the firm, right? In the same way that The US offshored in the nineties and two thousands. I think we're going to see an offshoring two models, right? Maybe an onshoring into data centers Mhmm. Which will mean that firms will have probably much stronger but much leaner balance sheets as they push labor out of their doors and onto the models. And that means that capital management can begin to merge. [01:08:47] S1: And do you buy that returns [01:08:49] S3: to scale are really high. [01:08:50] S1: Yeah. Do you you buy that there will be more firms in the future?
01:08:50 · John Coogan, Will Manidis, Jordi Hays, Darren Rovell, Tyler
[01:08:50] S1: Yeah. Do you you buy that there will be more firms in the future? [01:08:54] S3: Probably more single proprietor firms. Right? You can imagine the the the kind of bottom end of that curve, like 1,000 entrepreneurs in a data center kind of thing. Mhmm. But certainly, we think in regulated industries, healthcare, banking, etcetera, there will be massive consolidation as a result of cyber vulnerabilities. But it just seems obvious that there's going to be a huge amount of merging happening in community banks, community hospitals, etcetera. [01:09:18] S0: Yeah. [01:09:19] S3: Just because the models are are so so good at security. [01:09:23] S1: At security. Yeah. And so you you you don't wanna... You wanna amortize the cybersecurity combating cost across the largest organization possible. Is that the theory? [01:09:33] S3: Well, yeah. Largest possible defense against the large... Biggest possible threat and right now it's too fractured to have a meaningful chance. Yeah. [01:09:40] S0: How do you think the investment community is doing underwriting cyber security risk? Because like right now, people are like, oh, I should own cyber security stocks. [01:09:51] S4: Mhmm. [01:09:52] S0: But, it feels like there's some risk of like broad internet shutdown, whether that be, you know, a day. [01:10:01] S2: I mean, I still
01:10:01 · Tyler, Will Manidis, John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[01:10:01] S2: I mean, I still [01:10:01] S3: think it's underrated that like internet banking is probably a thing that was like we're going to live to see the end of. Right? Like I could really imagine a world where you have to like go to the bank to get dollars out again just because it's it's too easy to clone your voice, it's too easy to break to a fight. Like, it's just... It's all too easy. You know, Corgi sells cyber insurance now, so maybe we should all feel good that Corgi is underwriting this risk at civilizational scale. [01:10:24] S1: Yes. Yes. It's a Fellow. [01:10:26] S0: Of the guys. [01:10:28] S1: Cornerstone of the market. Yeah. Where does it go next? Are you selling the rights? Is there gonna be a movie? Commanding Heights's play? [01:10:36] S3: You know, the book's coming out. We will try to distribute the thing as much as possible. We're gonna try to produce it on stage as a fourteen hour production in New York City. Currently, Aaron Sorkin's bidding on the movie rights. Okay. Yeah. But the the book the book, you know, John Furrino has been even making bootleg copies of it. Sure. It's really incredible. You can buy kind of bootleg Commanding Heights copies. [01:10:59] S1: Yes. Yes. That's great selling them in Canal Street. I I think I saw a couple copies on laid out on the pavement there. [01:11:06] S3: I've been leaving copies around Central Park. You can go and get them. [01:11:09] S1: That's great. Well, congratulations on on the the launch and Yeah. Bring forth the most discussed... Yeah. A