Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
00:18:02 · Dan Loeb
[00:18:02] S2: There's so much wisdom in books for investing. Of my favorite books, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, quotes, I think it's from Ecclesiastes, which says there's nothing new under the sun. And the question is, will AI take human nature and the flaws in human emotion out of the investment process? Or might the AIs even adopt some of that under the name of risk management or managing downside or whatever? It will test the theory that there's nothing new under the sun. And the thing that doesn't change is hysterias, bubbles, panics, and just the extremes of human nature, both optimistically and pessimistically. Think about just this year, why is the socks up so much? It's up so much because all the evidence pointed to the fundamentals in semiconductors, semi cap equipment, memory, everything around it being super strong. What happened? Expectations were too high in the same way that NVIDIA after Q1 three years ago had this monster quarter, people piled on, it kept going up. You had a couple of quarters in a row where it put up solid numbers, then shockingly good numbers and the stock tanked. The whole sector went down and I think people were just scratching their heads saying, why did the numbers look so good and stock prices keep going down? And then the same thing happened with Micron. They had a phenomenal quarter up 80%, way ahead of expectations. The stock went up a little bit because expectations were too high and then it went down. Now that happens a lot. It happened to Meta a couple of years ago. They put up a good quarter, stock went up, it was like Wile E. Coyote, there was no one else to buy the stock, it tanked. So those things happen and I think that's where the human element comes in to understand and to be able to make those tough trading decisions when fundamentals are going one way and stock prices are going the other way, to be able to take the pain of losses in the short run. The advantage that someone like me, being a fundamental investor who doesn't make trading decisions based on computers, is that there are still a lot of market irregularities caused by some very good strategies, but collectively they create these anomalies.
00:20:29 · Dan Loeb, Patrick O'Shaughnessy
So you have quants and CTAs, you have pods, they have a great strategy for them and their investors, but it causes some unusual behaviors because fundamental investors believe that when, as Warren Buffett would say, if a stock goes down, you celebrate it because it's a chance to buy more at a better price. They have risk metrics, which have forced selling on the way down. So they do the opposite. It might be rational for their business model, but it's not rational for long term investors. So you have a lot of these things that will continue to create opportunities, I think, for fundamental investors. [00:21:11] S0: So interesting to imagine where the source of potential outsized returns are human behavior, which as you said, maybe that changes how much that impact prices and structural things like these and absent those two, maybe it'd be a less exciting market or something like that.
00:21:11 · Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Dan Loeb
[00:21:11] S0: So interesting to imagine where the source of potential outsized returns are human behavior, which as you said, maybe that changes how much that impact prices and structural things like these and absent those two, maybe it'd be a less exciting market or something like that. [00:21:26] S2: Yeah, but then you'll have corporate transactions that will create opportunities. It feels like there's always something. There's failures, there's credit cycles, there's bankruptcies. It's hard to imagine the computer sitting on a creditors committee and working through the capital structure and being able to transact. If you think about a continuum of public securities and private equity, AI will not do private equity, always need people to do deals. And then you have the stuff in between that requires a lot of negotiation and human interaction and high touch private credit or working through a restructuring. You'll probably always need human beings to do that part of the investment business. [00:22:08] S0: It seems like we're entering time as well where governance becomes incredibly important, especially in companies. I mean, we saw this play out with OpenAI in the public, where the governance structure and the people on a board can matter tremendously to outcomes. This has been an area where you've spent a huge amount of time thinking, writing, investing, a lot of your great successes have come in and around this topic. When did you first get interested in it? Where did it come from?
00:22:08 · Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Dan Loeb
[00:22:08] S0: It seems like we're entering time as well where governance becomes incredibly important, especially in companies. I mean, we saw this play out with OpenAI in the public, where the governance structure and the people on a board can matter tremendously to outcomes. This has been an area where you've spent a huge amount of time thinking, writing, investing, a lot of your great successes have come in and around this topic. When did you first get interested in it? Where did it come from? [00:22:34] S2: My dad, who was a securities lawyer, was an expert on corporate governance and wrote books about it. He's actually the first person I'd ever heard of who actually talked about corporate responsibility. He's on the board of Mattel and later William Sonoma. He would go visit these factories where they were sourcing their materials from and want to make sure that they were ethically sourced and the workers were treated well at Mattel or Williams Sonoma. So he was really ahead of his time on that stuff. [00:23:05] S0: What was he like as a person? [00:23:07] S2: My dad was incredibly funny, warm, irreverent, really smart. He was the only son of two immigrants from Europe. My grandmother, his mother came from Poland in 1914. His father came from Romania in like 1898. Incidentally, his mother's youngest sister, she was the first of that family that was born in this country. Her younger sister founded Mattel Toys, is a self made person who went to UCLA, did well, went to Harvard Law School and spent most of his career at one law firm.
00:23:07 · Dan Loeb, Patrick O'Shaughnessy
[00:23:07] S2: My dad was incredibly funny, warm, irreverent, really smart. He was the only son of two immigrants from Europe. My grandmother, his mother came from Poland in 1914. His father came from Romania in like 1898. Incidentally, his mother's youngest sister, she was the first of that family that was born in this country. Her younger sister founded Mattel Toys, is a self made person who went to UCLA, did well, went to Harvard Law School and spent most of his career at one law firm. [00:23:43] S0: I'm curious for you to sum up if you think about everything you've done in governance, what good and bad governance are like just at the highest possible level? How do you think about it?
00:23:51 · Dan Loeb
[00:23:51] S2: I think we have an incredible system. Let's start with that. There's something beautiful about the American capitalist system in the aspect of it, that creates boards of directors that ultimately have a role within both capitalism and a democratic system where the board is responsible and answerable to the shareholders and is responsible for accountability for the management, setting strategy and key financial decisions. We have a great system in place. Where the shortcomings within governance happen is when the board members lose sight of what their duties are as fiduciaries, or the composition of the board is such that they aren't really equipped to carry out that duty because there is a lack of deep knowledge or intellectual or talent diversity on the board, or they are thinking excessively about things other than their duty to shareholders. Not to say that the board doesn't have other responsibilities, but but I think ultimately they should feed into creating shareholder value. If you go back to both Milton Friedman and things that Warren Buffett have said, of course boards care about the communities that they serve, the products, the employees, proper conduct, etc. All those things are very important. They are not inconsistent with creating shareholder value. In fact, it's part of creating shareholder value. But I think, especially a few years ago, the business roundtable said we're no longer going to say that board's responsibility is primarily to drive shareholder value. Well, I think it was a distraction from what their real duty is. Bad governance I've seen is when they let their loyalty or relationship to a CEO who's not up to the job overshadow their duty to shareholders. That's probably the main thing. It's very important to understand the boards don't run the companies. In a well functioning company, the board is strategic, not tactical. So they should be really focusing on those things. But if the company isn't allocating capital well, or isn't holding the management team responsible, Or there's some very obvious things that should be done differently? That's when we can come in.