00:08:16 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:08:16] S0: Dylan Patel? Just think if if you think AI... I I think if you think AI is real and gonna be big, like, it's it's very very hard to make a super coherent bear case. Right? Even if search revenues even if search revenues decline, you know, every year and and we're sort of at peak search, they just have so many other assets and they can use that, you know, search cash flow to finance so much other infrastructure and and things like that. So [00:08:46] S1: I mean, people are nervous about it, but it's still $200,000,000,000. So it's effectively... I mean, that's revenue, but it's high margin revenue that they can deploy elsewhere. And, I mean, the take him, take is that in the race to win AI builders, Anthropic and OpenAI now account for 86% of enterprise LLM API spend, up from 67%. So the duopoly is consolidating around the frontier leaders, and Google's market share went down more than 50% in terms of... Not in terms of LLM usage for consumer, but but for builders and the enterprise. Yeah. And that's Yeah. But and that would be bad. [00:09:22] S0: Exactly. Revenue is flowing through GCP. It's it's it's paying for TPUs. Right? Yep. And so it's like Google's getting their Google's getting their cut. Right? [00:09:31] S1: A 100%. A [00:09:32] S0: 100%. And and yeah, it's like you just cannot... It's when you look at the sort of collective, you know, the collection of assets, the exposure to everything from, you know, SpaceX to to Anthropic to TBU business to the cloud business, it's like, you know, this is still one of the greatest businesses Yeah. In history.
00:09:32 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:09:32] S0: 100%. And and yeah, it's like you just cannot... It's when you look at the sort of collective, you know, the collection of assets, the exposure to everything from, you know, SpaceX to to Anthropic to TBU business to the cloud business, it's like, you know, this is still one of the greatest businesses Yeah. In history. [00:09:55] S1: Where do you sit on the question of, like, is Google in founder mode or not? Because, like, we always get these headlines of, like, oh, Larry and Sergei came back in. They're they're digging in. And then you'll see, like, they bought another state in Florida. And and it's, like, going back and forth. I'm like, who's actually... And I know they have the voting control, so they could at any point come in and be like, we're doing some huge m and a deal, or we're completely reorging this organization. We're gonna completely... We're gonna go Mark Zuckerberg mode and completely rework the organization. But at the same time, they have been out and had a real CEO in place unlike Meta. So they're kind of this hybrid. Like, they're not quite [00:10:35] S0: involved role. Like... It doesn't... It it certainly doesn't come across like the company is in founder mode in the way that you... In in the way that you feel it with, Meta. Right? [00:10:45] S1: Yeah.
00:10:45 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:10:45] S1: Yeah. [00:10:45] S0: And so... And I and I think that's what matters. Right? I think the big... Obviously, you know, the headwinds for Google is like losing, you know, people almost forget about the massive talent exodus from like, what, a few months ago. Right? Yeah. No. And... But but again, it's like as long as they can stay competitive around the cloud and and chip business, you know, there's a lot of upside. [00:11:11] S1: What is going on with this New York Times headline? Google will turn off search for schools that reject AI? Andrew Curran is sort of correcting the record here, but it it sounds really aggressive. It's like the carrot of the stick. Did you see this? [00:11:28] S0: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they're just saying... They're they're effectively saying, like, if you... We are... Every... All of our products are AI. So if you tell us not to use AI, then none of... You can't use any of our products. Right? But it sounds much more aggressive to be like, you can no longer Google search. But I think their point is that AI is everywhere across every product surface area. Yeah. And so it's unavoidable.
00:11:28 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:11:28] S0: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, they're just saying... They're they're effectively saying, like, if you... We are... Every... All of our products are AI. So if you tell us not to use AI, then none of... You can't use any of our products. Right? But it sounds much more aggressive to be like, you can no longer Google search. But I think their point is that AI is everywhere across every product surface area. Yeah. And so it's unavoidable. [00:11:56] S1: So Andrew Curran says, this article is getting posted everywhere this morning. I can see why. Very, very controversial. Does the... But this decision is being incorrectly framed as punitive. There's no such thing as search without Gemini. Even if you don't turn AI mode on, you're still talking to Gemini in the search box. The old Google search is gone. Yeah. That's it's a good point. Like, I I... I'll give Google some points for, you know, this is just the way things are now, but it does sort of, yeah, necessitate like a Google search classic or something. I mean, I guess schools can do DuckDuckGo or some search engine that hasn't embraced, you know, LLM search if they want to offer that that more classic old school experience. But I don't know. Might be time to learn the Dewey Decimal system, hit the library. [00:12:44] S0: What do think? I think I think so. I think so. [00:12:47] S1: Google is not gonna save you at this point. If you're trying to learn, you gotta you gotta hit the books. I don't think you're gonna be doing that. What... What's going on with Grok bot? [00:12:56] S0: Don't know.
00:12:56 · Jordi Hays, John Coogan
[00:12:56] S0: Don't know. [00:12:57] S1: Let's tell everyone about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is secure. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops briefcase. The Grok bot thing was very weird. So Elon chimes in on November 1, which was, what, Sunday morning, I guess, or Sunday afternoon. Says the cost of serving Grok bot was unsustainably high relative to revenue. Shields says... Elon says Grok bot costs are unsustainable relative to revenue. Computer use is expensive, but AI companies are racing to make it cheaper while giving it away for free. Thank capitalism. We get free digital labor before they figured out how to profit for it. I'm I'm... I was so surprised by this. I think everyone was surprised by it. What was your take? [00:13:39] S0: So the... I I think the current read is that they were using Opus five five under the hood. [00:13:45] S1: Oh, yeah. They're... Yeah. They're big in Trump's system too. [00:13:49] S0: And so... But but still, like, you would think that they would just eat the eat the losses for some amount of time given that given that they're, you know, they're a $2,000,000,000,000 company. Like, I think somewhere around a million, you know, weekly actives. Like, it's not a it's not a massive product at this point. And so this whole thing was just, very... I I still don't know what the read is. Like, I'm just very confused. [00:14:22] S1: Yeah. I mean, I'm just doing it back of the envelope, like...
00:14:22 · John Coogan, Jordi Hays
[00:14:22] S1: Yeah. I mean, I'm just doing it back of the envelope, like... [00:14:24] S0: Like it... Like he's he's going and publicly saying that I believe that in the future Grok bot will consume the majority of our compute. [00:14:35] S1: Mhmm. [00:14:36] S0: And then now you're saying like the cost of serving our product is unsustainably high relative to revenue? Like... [00:14:44] S1: I mean, I guess the steel man would be like the next version of Grok Bot people will be paying more for. So even though it's consuming all the new data center compute capacity... [00:14:53] S0: No. But but but, like, assume assume the sort of continuous decline in the actual cost to serve your users? Why are you... What... Like, maybe maybe maybe he was having a big night out? [00:15:11] S1: I don't know. Also, it seems like... I mean, it's not like he turned Grok bot off. He just this is just... He just denied someone a reset. Right? Wasn't that what happened? [00:15:22] S0: I know. I think people were complaining that There's not... Their usage just like rocketed to a 100% and then Sure. It doesn't.