Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
· Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Sam Altman
[00:00:00] S0: Always on. [00:00:00] S1: Always on, looking at everything you look at on your computer, listening to every meeting that you're in, reading every document you read. And then not only that — not only can it do all that, which takes a lot of tokens. You can drag a slider — while I'm asleep, you can spend this many tokens thinking, come up with useful new ideas for me, do whatever work you can, and then keep thinking about what I should do next, what an interesting thing is. Just spend more compute making your output better for me the next morning. I would drag that slider quite far. I'd be willing to spend a lot for that. But the amount of compute that that would require if everybody in the world wants to drag that slider pretty far — it's a lot. [00:00:00] S0: I'd love to hear you talk about how you think of the nature of this new intelligence. Someone told me recently, planes don't fly like a bird. And this intelligence is not… [00:00:00] S1: It's a very alien kind of intelligence. [00:00:00] S0: Yeah, it's a very alien kind of intelligence. And everyone's talking about how if you can verify something, it's going to win — with enough compute and enough IQ, it'll brute force its way to a solution. And then in other domains where humans and the data and evals that they've done have been a huge part of it, it's surprising to me how much money it's cost to get good at, I don't know, law and reasoning, tracing law or something. I'm curious how you would describe… [00:00:00] S1: It's a beautiful question.
· Sam Altman, Patrick O'Shaughnessy
[00:00:00] S1: It's a beautiful question. [00:00:00] S0: I'm not sure how old your kid is. You have a boy or girl? [00:00:00] S1: One of each. [00:00:00] S0: When they're seven, or age of reason or whatever, and you can describe to them, what is the nature of this intelligence? How would you describe it? [00:00:00] S1: It's a beautiful question. I don't think I've been asked this before or even any version of it. The thing that's coming to mind right now is I would say it's like a computer. And it's like a computer in the way that it can do a lot of things that people just can't do, like multiply two gigantic numbers very quickly and give you the answer. And then it cannot do some things that you would very easily do. The number of things that it can't do, I expect to keep receding. But in an evolving world, I think human judgment and taste will continue to be hard for AIs to model where that's going to go. I don't have the right word for this. It's not quite taste. The world may need a new kind of word for the kind of judgment that people are very good at that AIs seem to really deeply struggle with. [00:00:00] S0: What's it been like becoming a dad and having growing kids in this era? I'm thinking back to your optimistic early internet days. They're going to grow up in a cheap, abundant intelligence age.
· Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Sam Altman
[00:00:00] S0: What's it been like becoming a dad and having growing kids in this era? I'm thinking back to your optimistic early internet days. They're going to grow up in a cheap, abundant intelligence age. [00:00:00] S1: Having kids is by far the best thing I have ever done. And everybody says that. Everybody says you can't really understand it. I believed enough people that said it that I believed it to be true. But the degree to which it has been true for me has been surprising. I think I have the best, most interesting job in the world, and it is still a very distant second to having kids. So it's been awesome and it is a real moment for optimism. My kids will never grow up in a world where they were smarter than computers. If you were born at the time of GPT-3, you had a time where you had better reasoning than the models, even though it didn't matter when you were born. You caught them briefly. Our older kid, like 18 months, that will never seem strange to him. That will never bother him. I don't think he'll care. He would be shocked to imagine in the dark ages when we had to deal with products and services that weren't incredibly smart. He will be able to do things that you and I never were able to do, and he'll have expectations in life that you and I never had, and he'll have a much bigger canvas. [00:00:00] S0: Do you run the business or teams or lead people in any way that is notably different because of the experience of having them?
· Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Sam Altman
[00:00:00] S0: Do you run the business or teams or lead people in any way that is notably different because of the experience of having them? [00:00:00] S1: The answer must be yes. I feel very different having them. I think there's a bunch of small things that are really different. And then again, this is not a novel insight in any way. I think most people who have had kids say as soon as you have a kid, you realize that you care much more about them and the experience that they're going to have than you do about yourself, and the world that you are going to leave them. And I think I have an unusual vantage point for that. People ask me sometimes like, oh, now that you have kids, do you care more about AI safety and not destroying the world? And the answer is I didn't need kids for that. I really didn't want to destroy the world before. But do I think more about the role of human agency and what it means to have a fulfilling life? Definitely much more, for what we're building, and also the people I work with, I want them to have it too. You obviously have extraordinary empathy for your kids, but the degree to which that extends to all kids, and then maybe to all parents, and maybe then to everybody, that's been a surprise to me too. [00:00:00] S0: In one of the posts, I think it was the one that's things you wish you knew earlier or something, is about incentives and setting them very, very carefully. [00:00:00] S1: Yeah.
· Sam Altman, Patrick O'Shaughnessy
[00:00:00] S1: Yeah. [00:00:00] S0: It's always been one of the most puzzling and interesting things about you that you don't have equity exposure to this company. How should the world think about your incentives? [00:00:00] S1: I don't know what I can say beyond I have a front row seat to the most exciting moment of human history. That is worth more to me than any amount of money. I get to have an extremely interesting life and work with extraordinary people on something that I deeply care about. But somehow that doesn't count. [00:00:00] S0: Just doesn't do it for people or something. I'm curious how you think about robotics. You mentioned earlier, at some point, if we had automated labor in the same way we're going to have automated intelligence, things might get even crazier. The labor market's bigger than the white collar market. [00:00:00] S1: If we don't have it, then things get really crazy. If the role for people in the world is to be like the actuators of AI in the cloud, that'd be bad, very bad. So I think it's much crazier if we don't get it than if we do. [00:00:00] S0: It's an imperative. Help me understand your sense of progress in that, because unlike in AI where everyone is now on the same page that it's going fast, you can find extremely smart people that say it's end of this year, and you can find extremely smart people that say it's 20 years from now or something. [00:00:00] S1: It's not 20 years. I would say we get the ChatGPT moment for robotics in the next two or three years. [00:00:00] S0: What would that be? Do you know what that is?
· Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Sam Altman
[00:00:00] S0: What would that be? Do you know what that is? [00:00:00] S1: Something where most people have a real wow. Not like a, "I saw this video of a robot dog doing something crazy." But I was somehow able to convince myself that a really important thing happened. One of the things about the ChatGPT moment was that you could go use it. Yeah. You didn't have to believe someone who said AI's coming soon. You could go try it. And if you could go type in a command and a robot can do something crazy and you can watch it, even if you're not physically there, I think that would have the same kind of like, whoa, it just did this thing. [00:00:00] S0: Wasn't ChatGPT not this monolithic goal, but a side experiment that you decided to release? That story may be instructive for something similar happening in robotics. Everyone seems to want to fold laundry, but maybe it's something very different.