00:39:04 · Joe Weisenthal, Nate Silver, Nate Silver, Tracy Alloway
[00:39:04] S3: Your FIFA World Cup model did have Spain versus Argentina in the finals. [00:39:06] S2: We had a really good, yeah. And that's the thing about, so NFL, you know, you have good weeks and bad weeks and like, that's why, you know, maybe if Republicans win the House, with the Senate, we'd say, well, 25% things happen, right? It'd be great. But like, If they win the house, maybe we'll just make Silver Bulletin AI in a sports blog. Just give up. [00:39:24] S3: Just give up. Nate Silver, thank you so much for joining us on our Election Day special. [00:39:31] S1: Thank you, Joe. [00:39:45] S3: That was a fun conversation, Tracy. I think my favorite part of the conversation... was Nate preemptively parodying how he will sound if Abdul El-Sayed slightly underperforms. [00:39:57] S0: It was a good impression of himself. And Nate Silver. [00:39:59] S3: Doing the impression of an annoying white moderate guy was good. But that was fun. I'm glad. Happy Election Day, people. I'm glad Nate joined us for today. Yeah. [00:40:09] S0: By the time this comes out, I guess maybe some of the polls will have changed. [00:40:12] S3: Maybe some of the polls. [00:40:13] S0: We'll have some additional. [00:40:14] S3: Data, maybe. We'll have some more early voting data. [00:40:16] S0: Yeah, exactly. One thing I thought was really interesting was this idea of polls basically all becoming models now. [00:40:23] S3: Yeah. [00:40:23] S1: Right.
00:40:23 · Nate Silver, Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal
[00:40:23] S1: Right. [00:40:24] S0: And like after years and years and years of being accused of, I guess, overestimating Democrats in the polls, everyone now is self-correcting. And so the question is, like, how big is that self-correction? [00:40:37] S3: Yeah. And it's interesting. And I guess we didn't go into the math specifically. But if you can empirically establish that your self-correction here makes no sense. [00:40:47] S1: Yeah. [00:40:47] S3: Then what you do learn is, as Nate said, pollsters are self-interested players. Because who is it? What was the famous pollster in Iowa? Selzer, Ann Selzer, who actually, you know, right before the 2024 election actually had Kamala Harris winning Iowa. Yeah. [00:41:04] S0: No one wants to poll a Selzer, right? [00:41:06] S3: It was so off that she retired from the game. And that's kind of, I guess, what Nate was saying, too, which is that if Republicans win the House, it's like, you know what, I think we're done. I think we're done trying to go into sports. These crazy American voters. We're done trying to understand anything about them because we have nothing. We have no usable information on them. Go ask your digital twin. [00:41:27] S1: All right. [00:41:27] S0: Shall we leave it there? [00:41:28] S1: Yeah, let's leave it there. [00:41:29] S0: This has been another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.
00:41:29 · Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal, Nate Silver
[00:41:29] S0: This has been another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. [00:41:35] S3: And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our guest, Nate Silver. He's at natesilver538. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Arman, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano. And of course, you can chat about all of these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash allthoughts. And for more OddLots content, you can check out our daily newsletter, which you can find at Bloomberg.com slash OddLots. [00:42:03] S0: And if you enjoyed this conversation, if you like it when we do our Election Day specials, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And if you're watching on video, then please leave a comment or like or better yet, subscribe. [00:42:17] S3: And remember, if you're an OddLots subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. [00:42:27] S0: Thanks for joining. [00:42:28] S1: So