00:10:16 · Nate Silver, Tracy Alloway, Nate Silver, Joe Weisenthal
[00:10:16] S1: Yeah. [00:10:16] S0: So at the moment when we're recording this, if you look at, I guess, the polling consensus and prediction markets, it seems like the House is pretty much a lock. Senate is a toss up at the moment. What's the actual range of outcomes for a Democratic win here? Like, what are the extremes that you could possibly see on both sides? [00:10:37] S2: I would push back on the Senate being a toss up. I think at Polymarket and Kalshi, Democrats are up to like 68 percent or something as when we're recording this. And in our model, they're at 70, high 70s now? [00:10:48] S3: To win the Senate. [00:10:49] S0: For the Senate? [00:10:50] S1: Okay. [00:10:50] S2: Oh, wow. Well, there's this kind of, both a blessing and a curse is to actually have to put out a forecast in the form of a probability, right? Because it'd be easy to say, oh, things are looking good for Democrats. but don't get your hopes up too much because polls can be wrong. And yeah, I guess it leans down, right? Like that's chickening out though. [00:11:10] S3: Like the thing is, it's like, we could all do that. Like this is, I guess, like part of what's interesting about modelers and what's interesting about prediction markets is We could all say, yeah, it looks like Democrats, like if you're going to provide value as the creator of a model, you got to be able to say something beyond it looks like a good night for Democrats, but who knows?
00:11:10 · Joe Weisenthal, Nate Silver
[00:11:10] S3: Like the thing is, it's like, we could all do that. Like this is, I guess, like part of what's interesting about modelers and what's interesting about prediction markets is We could all say, yeah, it looks like Democrats, like if you're going to provide value as the creator of a model, you got to be able to say something beyond it looks like a good night for Democrats, but who knows? [00:11:31] S2: And look, in 2024, like our model literally was 50-50. Like literally we ran 80,000 simulations and it took like the 71,000 simulation for one candidate to go ahead, right? So there are times when the correct modeling position is like, oh, people are too sure of themselves. I'm not sure if this is that election, right? If you go and look at Republican-sponsored polls or go look at where Republicans are spending their time and their resources, and they're bracing for a landslide, right? They are doing telehauls and the Louisiana Senate race and things like that, right? And seem concerned about South Carolina, let alone Texas, who people kind of knew would be a competitive race. But, you know, Democrats, I think, felt like they have been betrayed. [00:12:17] S3: Is there a Senate race in Louisiana this year? [00:12:19] S2: There is. I don't think there's been a single poll of it. But prediction markets say there's a 10% chance that Democrats will win that race, right? I think it's a little ridiculous. [00:12:26] S3: But that's not nothing. The point is that's far from trivial.
00:12:26 · Joe Weisenthal, Nate Silver, Nate Silver
[00:12:26] S3: But that's not nothing. The point is that's far from trivial. [00:12:29] S2: No, we've had to learn these details about these very red states. Like, oh, South Carolina was a Trump plus 18 state. That's what I'm a little bit more skeptical. [00:12:36] S1: About, right? [00:12:37] S2: But the vicissitudes between what differentiates Kansas from Nebraska and things like that, if the national environment... Is as polls say it is. Yeah. Democrats are ahead by about nine points on the generic ballot, which are national polls, essentially. [00:12:51] S1: Right. [00:12:52] S2: At nine points, Republicans, there's too much of a headwind for Republicans. [00:12:57] S1: Right. [00:12:57] S2: And like, you know, you can predict exactly which winning tickets Democrats would draw. But the GOP has to be that spread. [00:13:05] S1: Right.
00:13:05 · Nate Silver, Nate Silver
[00:13:05] S1: Right. [00:13:05] S2: Or it just gets too difficult. difficult and like i think part of the problem with mental models versus actual models right people say well i can easily see this case where there's a bust again in the polls in the midwest right and i can see this case where sure the polls are basically right and polls are a little cautious and democrats have a sweep right and people kind of like wait those 50 50 but first of all there are the messy middle in between stories and like if you have a lead in the polls then you kind of muddle through half the time right it's like an nfl game where you have a field goal lead at halftime and then lots of penalties and turnovers, right? And you wind up winning by a field goal, right? So it's ugly, but Democrats tend to win the ugly races. And like, there is more evidence, including non-polling evidence consistent with the Democrats have a big night story. Like if you just talked about the things we already talked about in the first 15 minutes about gas and Trump approval ratings and Iran and all that stuff, right? You know, it's not a case where you have this clash really between indicators.
00:14:18 · Tracy Alloway, Nate Silver, Joe Weisenthal
[00:14:18] S0: I feel like we've been talking about this for many, many years now, but there's this persistent tension between all the consumer sentiment surveys where people report how they're feeling about the economy. Those have been very bad for many years now versus the actual numbers in the economy on consumer spending and other things that look pretty good. Do you have a story you tell yourself as a forecaster, a story to explain that discrepancy? [00:14:46] S2: Slightly hot take. I think some of the consumer confidence polling is not very good. You know, the good thing about election polls— I don't think. [00:14:53] S0: That's a hot take, by the way. Like, we've been talking about it for a while. [00:14:55] S3: The pollsters are not good. They're not doing best practices at polling. [00:14:59] S2: We had an article that's been published by a guest author named Joel Wertheimer, who. [00:15:03] S3: Oh, Joel's been on our podcast.
00:15:03 · Joe Weisenthal, Nate Silver, Nate Silver, Tracy Alloway
[00:15:03] S3: Oh, Joel's been on our podcast. [00:15:04] S2: He's great. Yeah, and clearly, I think the University of Michigan survey changed the composition to online in a way that just has, like, way too many Democrats in the sample. So, like, ironically, like— Ironically, like— The complaint that people make about election pollsters, which is more or less false, we can talk about that more, is kind of true of these consumer sentiment surveys that like, for better or worse, election polls get a dose of reality every two years. Election polls are made in an environment where pollsters are actively fearful of missing, particularly missing high on Democrats, right? So that's why like, that's why people talk about like, what's the difference between like polls and prediction markets? Polls kind of are prediction markets, right? or polling averages are at least, right? [00:15:47] S1: Okay. [00:15:47] S2: A poll is a data-informed opinion at this point, right? [00:15:55] S0: Because you have to weight it. [00:15:56] S3: The pollster has to do so much modeling, right? Is this what you're getting at? [00:16:00] S2: So like Marist released a poll of Maine last week, and the top line number, let me see if I'm getting this right in my head, said Troy Jackson, the Democrat in Maine, is up nine points, which would be a very good result for Democrats. The average, our average, had been like D plus three in that state, right? That's their registered voter poll. They applied a likely voter model that brought that lead down to plus two.