00:07:53 · Nate Silver, Joe Weisenthal
[00:07:53] S2: As compared to general elections or presidential elections, turnout is relatively speaking more important. in midterms. Differential turnout is almost always a factor in some of these bigger waves. I'm not an early voting expert, but there are people who are pretty good at it, right? It can be very ad hoc if you don't kind of set clear rules ahead of time. And they seem to be seeing good numbers for Democrats, better numbers in the polls. I don't know, because the polls are really good for Democrats, right? But it provides some more consensus evidence for it, particularly high turnout among Black voters who may fear being disenfranchised. high turnout or not high turnout, but comparatively high turnout among unlikely voters, people who in the voter files have voted no more than one in the past four elections. Democrats are getting a lot of those, but they're getting more than Republicans, right? I think some pollsters are finding there's very little D to R crossover. If you're any type of Democrat at all, this is not the year to indulge in a moderate Republican, right? Maybe a little bit of the reverse. But like, I mean, things tell a consistent story. It's just kind of this existential thing about whether people believe the story or not. [00:08:57] S3: Why is Trump so unpopular? Like, is it just gas and diesel prices? Like, break down the drivers of his unpopularity.
00:08:57 · Joe Weisenthal, Nate Silver, Nate Silver
[00:08:57] S3: Why is Trump so unpopular? Like, is it just gas and diesel prices? Like, break down the drivers of his unpopularity. [00:09:05] S2: Trump is kind of, well, people are bored of him and tired of him, right? I think people are just like, he's been president for, I guess, six years, right? But it feels like 10 years because he was still kind of the dominant figure of that kind of Biden interregnum. You know, he's 80 years old. But no, look, I think the basic story is that he has broken promises. most prominently on cheaper gas and on no more stupid wars. We can talk about how much the Epstein stuff affects him too. But yeah, one of the things about Trump's reporting number is like, of that 37% approval, like only 19% of it is like strong approval. I think there are permission structures that have opened up for Republicans to kind of distance themselves from Trump and incentives, right? You know, Trump, his endorsement will still matter after 2026, but like, you know, J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, who are nominally leading candidates, have a big problem in that they kind of are, when Bush was this unpopular in 2026, and it got worse, by the way, after the 06 midterm, you didn't have Dick Cheney trying to run for president, right? You had a rebellious Republican in John McCain who ultimately got nominated instead. And so, you know, when you're a lame duck, the bottom can drop out potentially. [00:10:16] S1: Yeah.
00:10:16 · Nate Silver, Tracy Alloway, Nate Silver, Joe Weisenthal
[00:10:16] S1: Yeah. [00:10:16] S0: So at the moment when we're recording this, if you look at, I guess, the polling consensus and prediction markets, it seems like the House is pretty much a lock. Senate is a toss up at the moment. What's the actual range of outcomes for a Democratic win here? Like, what are the extremes that you could possibly see on both sides? [00:10:37] S2: I would push back on the Senate being a toss up. I think at Polymarket and Kalshi, Democrats are up to like 68 percent or something as when we're recording this. And in our model, they're at 70, high 70s now? [00:10:48] S3: To win the Senate. [00:10:49] S0: For the Senate? [00:10:50] S1: Okay. [00:10:50] S2: Oh, wow. Well, there's this kind of, both a blessing and a curse is to actually have to put out a forecast in the form of a probability, right? Because it'd be easy to say, oh, things are looking good for Democrats. but don't get your hopes up too much because polls can be wrong. And yeah, I guess it leans down, right? Like that's chickening out though. [00:11:10] S3: Like the thing is, it's like, we could all do that. Like this is, I guess, like part of what's interesting about modelers and what's interesting about prediction markets is We could all say, yeah, it looks like Democrats, like if you're going to provide value as the creator of a model, you got to be able to say something beyond it looks like a good night for Democrats, but who knows?
00:11:10 · Joe Weisenthal, Nate Silver
[00:11:10] S3: Like the thing is, it's like, we could all do that. Like this is, I guess, like part of what's interesting about modelers and what's interesting about prediction markets is We could all say, yeah, it looks like Democrats, like if you're going to provide value as the creator of a model, you got to be able to say something beyond it looks like a good night for Democrats, but who knows? [00:11:31] S2: And look, in 2024, like our model literally was 50-50. Like literally we ran 80,000 simulations and it took like the 71,000 simulation for one candidate to go ahead, right? So there are times when the correct modeling position is like, oh, people are too sure of themselves. I'm not sure if this is that election, right? If you go and look at Republican-sponsored polls or go look at where Republicans are spending their time and their resources, and they're bracing for a landslide, right? They are doing telehauls and the Louisiana Senate race and things like that, right? And seem concerned about South Carolina, let alone Texas, who people kind of knew would be a competitive race. But, you know, Democrats, I think, felt like they have been betrayed. [00:12:17] S3: Is there a Senate race in Louisiana this year? [00:12:19] S2: There is. I don't think there's been a single poll of it. But prediction markets say there's a 10% chance that Democrats will win that race, right? I think it's a little ridiculous. [00:12:26] S3: But that's not nothing. The point is that's far from trivial.
00:12:26 · Joe Weisenthal, Nate Silver, Nate Silver
[00:12:26] S3: But that's not nothing. The point is that's far from trivial. [00:12:29] S2: No, we've had to learn these details about these very red states. Like, oh, South Carolina was a Trump plus 18 state. That's what I'm a little bit more skeptical. [00:12:36] S1: About, right? [00:12:37] S2: But the vicissitudes between what differentiates Kansas from Nebraska and things like that, if the national environment... Is as polls say it is. Yeah. Democrats are ahead by about nine points on the generic ballot, which are national polls, essentially. [00:12:51] S1: Right. [00:12:52] S2: At nine points, Republicans, there's too much of a headwind for Republicans. [00:12:57] S1: Right. [00:12:57] S2: And like, you know, you can predict exactly which winning tickets Democrats would draw. But the GOP has to be that spread. [00:13:05] S1: Right.
00:13:05 · Nate Silver, Nate Silver
[00:13:05] S1: Right. [00:13:05] S2: Or it just gets too difficult. difficult and like i think part of the problem with mental models versus actual models right people say well i can easily see this case where there's a bust again in the polls in the midwest right and i can see this case where sure the polls are basically right and polls are a little cautious and democrats have a sweep right and people kind of like wait those 50 50 but first of all there are the messy middle in between stories and like if you have a lead in the polls then you kind of muddle through half the time right it's like an nfl game where you have a field goal lead at halftime and then lots of penalties and turnovers, right? And you wind up winning by a field goal, right? So it's ugly, but Democrats tend to win the ugly races. And like, there is more evidence, including non-polling evidence consistent with the Democrats have a big night story. Like if you just talked about the things we already talked about in the first 15 minutes about gas and Trump approval ratings and Iran and all that stuff, right? You know, it's not a case where you have this clash really between indicators.