Noam Segal's 2026 survey of about 6,000 tech workers finds AI shapes how people feel about their work more than role, company or level.
Burnout with significant levels rose from 44.7% in 2025 to 54.7% in 2026, while optimism about roles and careers fell from 54.8% to 48.7%.
Segal says no group is a net promoter of its role, and designers and researchers are the most negative, which he argues matters as AI pulls rungs from lower-level workers.
AI now shapes how tech workers feel about their jobs
Attitude toward AI is now the strongest lens through which tech workers judge their jobs, and the mood is badly split. Half feel amplified while the other half feel unsettled to varying degrees. Output expectations are rising faster than quality, so burnout is up and optimism is down. Managers remain the lever companies can still pull.
Takeaways
AI attitude shapes work sentiment more than role. About half of the roughly 6000 respondents feel amplified by AI. The rest split between feeling their role is redefined (27%) and feeling destabilized or diminished (14% and 5%). Segal says this identity effect is about three times as large as the founder or manager effects.
Burnout and pessimism rose sharply in one year. Significant burnout rose from 44.7% in 2025 to 54.7% in 2026, while optimism about roles and careers fell from 54.8% to 48.7%. Segal ties this to heavier output, such as going from a couple of pull requests a day to 30.
Workers produce more, but not better, work. 82% say AI makes them at least moderately better at their job, yet only about half say very much or extremely. Segal says AI lowered the bar without raising the ceiling, and one respondent said their brain is rotting.
Layoff worry is widespread, hitting lower rungs. 72% worry about layoffs to some extent and 41.2% at least moderately. Data analysts worry most, and fear of overwork for the same pay outranks fear of replacement. Segal argues AI is climbing the career ladder and pulling rungs from under junior workers.
Managers are the biggest retention lever. Only about 25% rate their manager as highly effective, while 36% rate them ineffective. An effective manager is linked to around 65% higher job enjoyment. Segal worries flatter organizations give managers more direct reports, and design and data managers are struggling.
No group is a net promoter of its role. Founders are the happiest group for a second year, with 71% optimistic, yet still would not recommend their role. Designers and researchers are least likely to recommend theirs. Segal argues design and research matter more now because AI has not matched creative work.
Sentiment is split, and hype and doom coexist. 37% of words used to describe the industry were positive, 37% negative and about 26% neutral. Archetypes split into 41% energized, 35% conflicted and 12% disoriented and resentful. Segal says people can feel hype and doom at once.
Advice for workers and companies
Go deep on specific tasks rather than staying a generalist.
Watch for signs that your role is being squeezed.
Tap a name to go there · tap a line to see why they are linked
On this episode 2
Show 1
Invest in the relationship with your manager and seek mentorship.
Companies should invest in managers to improve burnout, enjoyment and retention, and should watch the pace of work.